Offseason Preview: Wide Receivers

[flgreen]

Jets offseason preview: Wide receivers

February, 11, 2015
Feb 11

8:00

AM ET


By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com



With the NFL scouting combine (Feb. 17-23) and free agency (March 10) approaching, we take a position-by-position look at the New York Jets as they head into the offseason:

Position: Wide receiver






2014 snaps:
•Eric Decker: 75 percent
•Jeremy Kerley: 67 percent
•Percy Harvin: 33 percent
•David Nelson: 27 percent (released)
•Greg Salas: 20 percent
•T.J. Graham: 16 percent
•Chris Owusu: 7 percent

Key stat: This may surprise you, but the Jets' oft-criticized receiving corps averaged 14.4 yards per catch against base defenses (four DBs), which ranked 10th in the league. Against nickel defenses, the average dropped by nearly two yards (12.6), but it still was good for 14th.

Pending free agents: Salas (unrestricted)

2015 cap hits (position rank):
•Harvin: $10.5 million (No. 8)
•Decker: $6.5 million (No. 20)
•Kerley: $2.6 million (No. 49)
•Graham: $660,000
•Owusu: $660,000
•Shaq Evans: $622,725
•Saalim Hakim: $585,000
•Walter Powell: $510,000
•Quincy Enunwa: $435,000

Money matters: The big decision involves Harvin, who has four years, $41.5 million remaining on the contract inherited from the Seattle Seahawks -- none of it guaranteed. The Jets must make the call by March 19. If he's still on the roster, they owe the Seahawks a fourth-round pick, completing the trade from last October. If they cut him before the 19th, it's a sixth-rounder. His entire cap charge comes off the books if they cut bait. Clearly, Harvin isn't a $10 million a year receiver, but he has talent. Are the Jets willing to overpay out of desperation? Not likely. We know Decker isn't going anywhere; his entire base salary ($5 million is guaranteed). Kerley's entire base salary ($2 million) becomes fully guaranteed on March 14.

Big picture: Any potential moves will hinge on the Harvin verdict. Even if they keep him, they still don't have a true No. 1 receiver. The Jets were only 2-6 with Harvin, who hasn't had a multiple-TD game since 2011. Decker was an average receiver for the first 15 games before morphing into Jerry Rice in the finale. If they stick with the Decker-Harvin tandem, it's hard to imagine them going for an upper-tier free agent; that would be a lot of money tied up in one position. Amari Cooper would be an intriguing option with the sixth pick in the draft, if he lasts that long. Bottom line: They're still one major acquisition away from having a top-flight receiving corps.

Free-agent market watch: Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Demaryius Thomas.

 

[flgreen]

Think they should release Harvin then see what his market value is. No long term deal

 

[sg3]

Think they should release Harvin then see what his market value is. No long term deal

Agree

Release him and 10 million cap hit and save the 4th round pick.

2015 is not a win now year so it makes no sense to spend a boodle on a win now player

 

[hobson54]

if we release harvin, we once again have an underwhelming WR corps. i don't think any of the big name WRs (especially bryant, thomas and cobb) leave their existing teams. and guys like maclin, smith and crabtree are gonna get way overpaid - probably on deals similar to mike wallace's awful contract.

so in the end, it may be best to work out a new deal with harvin that gives him some long term security and lessens future cap hits (we can take a bigger hit this year with the space). i think he's the type of player that could flourish under gailey's offense. decker, harvin, kerley and amaro form the start of a nice receiving corps. would just need to add another young guy (preferably with some size) in the draft, which once again appears to be pretty deep. harvin also helps out on special teams (think bobby april would be able to get the best out of him). and then you hope evans or enunwa pan out to add depth.

 

[GratefulJet]

In isolation, if you can get Harvin to agree to a friendlier deal, he's better than anyone we're going to find in the 4th round of this draft, and we can focus on other positions with the first 3 picks. In terms of what we need, I'm not so sure. One area where we really lack is a red zone threat. Davante Parker gives us that, in spades. We also don't have a pure home run threat. I think Kevin White gives us that. Do we have that guy who is clever enough and has the pure technique to find a way to get open and move the chains on 3rd and 7 to 14 regularly? Not sure, but Amari Cooper gives us that. Is there a single WR in this draft who can fill whatever our biggest need is at the position, or does Harvin address our needs better by becoming Tavon Austin reborn in a Chan Gailey spread offense designed to make Geno comfortable and productive? I don't know, but these are the questions I'm asking myself, and how I'll be looking at these guys at the combine and beyond.

 

[ucrenegade]

if if he restructures i would keep him but not for 10m that is crazy.

 

[flgreen]

if we release harvin, we once again have an underwhelming WR corps. i don't think any of the big name WRs (especially bryant, thomas and cobb) leave their existing teams. and guys like maclin, smith and crabtree are gonna get way overpaid - probably on deals similar to mike wallace's awful contract.

so in the end, it may be best to work out a new deal with harvin that gives him some long term security and lessens future cap hits (we can take a bigger hit this year with the space). i think he's the type of player that could flourish under gailey's offense. decker, harvin, kerley and amaro form the start of a nice receiving corps. would just need to add another young guy (preferably with some size) in the draft, which once again appears to be pretty deep. harvin also helps out on special teams (think bobby april would be able to get the best out of him). and then you hope evans or enunwa pan out to add depth.

IMO at least, the last thing you want to do with Harvin is give him some security. That's when he acts out. He's already got his guaranteed money.

As pointed out above, the Jets really don't need to over spend on a over paid "win now" contract. As you mentioned this is another good WR draft. If a WR comes to the Jets in the draft, take him.

I think if the Jets really want Harvin, he can be had for a lot cheaper. Like $5,000,000 cheaper. Really don't think his value is anywhere near what he's being paid.

1) He's not actually a good WR. He's a good gadget guy.

2) He can't stay on the field

3) He's a locker room problem.

If the Jets can cut him, and save the 4th, resign him for 5-6 million, with little guaranteed money. Great, do it.

If some other team out there is going to pay him 9-10 million, bye-bye

 

[jets82]

I say keep Harvin for the right price, a price that is friendly for the team. Doubt seriously Harvin will be in demand for huge pay anywhere else and he and his agent knows this, so they should be willing to bargain generously. Besides, the big name FA WRs I don't think will leave their teams and I mean all of them. Maybe we can get Crabtree or T. Smith but the rest I truly believe will resign with their teams. If this is the case, then sign Harvin to a contract that works for the Jets and draft a big-time WR with size, 6'2"-6'5" type that can eventually be our #1 or #2 at worst. With Decker, Harvin, Kerley and a game changing rookie WR, I believe that will work real nice. Maybe even the two rookies from last year show something as well. Harvin and Kerley will be great for us in special teams and gadget plays as well.

 

[SackExchange]

Think they should release Harvin then see what his market value is. No long term deal

Since free agency begins before the Harvin deadline, they should see what is available. If they land a top guy, cut Harvin. If they don't by the Harvin deadline, keep Harvin and move on to other positions of need.

 

[SackExchange]

I say keep Harvin for the right price, a price that is friendly for the team. Doubt seriously Harvin will be in demand for huge pay anywhere else and he and his agent knows this, so they should be willing to bargain generously. Besides, the big name FA WRs I don't think will leave their teams and I mean all of them. Maybe we can get Crabtree or T. Smith but the rest I truly believe will resign with their teams. If this is the case, then sign Harvin to a contract that works for the Jets and draft a big-time WR with size, 6'2"-6'5" type that can eventually be our #1 or #2 at worst. With Decker, Harvin, Kerley and a game changing rookie WR, I believe that will work real nice. Maybe even the two rookies from last year show something as well. Harvin and Kerley will be great for us in special teams and gadget plays as well.

The problem with keeping Harvin at a more team-friendly price is that restructuring would require the Jets to guarantee some of the money. Right now, none of it is guaranteed. What if they cut his cap number for this year down to $6.5MM by restructuring, but it guarantees some money in 2016 and 2017? Then, Harvin gets hurt or becomes a problem child, while a Shaq Evans or someone drafted this season steps up. Now you are forced to absorb dead money if you cut Harvin, or keep him on the roster and not play him much.

 

[flgreen]

The problem with keeping Harvin at a more team-friendly price is that restructuring would require the Jets to guarantee some of the money. Right now, none of it is guaranteed. What if they cut his cap number for this year down to $6.5MM by restructuring, but it guarantees some money in 2016 and 2017? Then, Harvin gets hurt or becomes a problem child, while a Shaq Evans or someone drafted this season steps up. Now you are forced to absorb dead money if you cut Harvin, or keep him on the roster and not play him much.

Exactly

And Harvin has a history of both. I don't see any benefit to giving Harvin a long term deal with guaranteed money. Release him and tell him to call before he signs with any one.

If he gets a lot of money somewhere else. OK, no biggie. Don't think his market value is very high right now.

 

[SackExchange]

Exactly

And Harvin has a history of both. I don't see any benefit to giving Harvin a long term deal with guaranteed money. Release him and tell him to call before he signs with any one.

If he gets a lot of money somewhere else. OK, no biggie. Don't think his market value is very high right now.

There's no need to release him before 3/19. Hold onto him unless you land someone big off the market. If you do, dump him. If not, keep him.

Then, if you sign another guy AFTER 3/19 you can keep Harvin, or dump him if you need the cap room. At that point, you will have already paid out the fourth instead of the sixth.

But I don't dump him unless I have his replacement, and I don't restructure him unless I have to.

 

[flgreen]

There's no need to release him before 3/19. Hold onto him unless you land someone big off the market. If you do, dump him. If not, keep him.

Then, if you sign another guy AFTER 3/19 you can keep Harvin, or dump him if you need the cap room. At that point, you will have already paid out the fourth instead of the sixth.

But I don't dump him unless I have his replacement, and I don't restructure him unless I have to.

A 4th round pick hopefully is one that a team expects to get production out of. Don't see the purpose of throwing it away.

Strongly suspect Harvin will be a FA on March 20th

 

[SackExchange]

A 4th round pick hopefully is one that a team expects to get production out of. Don't see the purpose of throwing it away.

Strongly suspect Harvin will be a FA on March 20th

Either way, it's a risk.

Would you rather risk having only Decker and Kerley, but having a fourth instead of a sixth?

Or would you rather risk keeping Harvin unless or until he is replaced, and giving up the higher pick?

In my mind, dumping Harvin before he has been replaced is a bigger risk than keeping him and spending the higher draft pick.

 

[soj]

I said this on our last site... let him go. he was marginally effective and simply not worth 10mm or a 4th. Draft cooper and be done with it.

 

[SackExchange]

I said this on our last site... let him go. he was marginally effective and simply not worth 10mm or a 4th. Draft cooper and be done with it.

The risk there is that you don't know if Cooper will be on the board. What if he's gone, and all the FA WRs are gone by the draft? Now you have Kerley as your #2 again, instead of your #3 where he is best suited.

And if Cooper is on the board, it means you aren't taking a QB at 6. Who is getting the ball to Cooper, Decker, and Kerley?

 

[flgreen]

Either way, it's a risk.

Would you rather risk having only Decker and Kerley, but having a fourth instead of a sixth?

Or would you rather risk keeping Harvin unless or until he is replaced, and giving up the higher pick?

In my mind, dumping Harvin before he has been replaced is a bigger risk than keeping him and spending the higher draft pick.

In all honesty, not a Harvin fan at all. Don't think he is a good WR, and a problem in the locker room who can't stay healthy. Thought the trade was just a panic move by Idzik.

If they are going to spend 10.5 million on a WR, I actually want a WR, who can run routes.

With around 50 million in cap space, and a draft coming up that has 7-8 potentially good WR's. If the Jets go into the season with only Decker and Kerley, maybe Macc isn't the GM we hope he is.

That's not going to happen

 

[SackExchange]

In all honesty, not a Harvin fan at all. Don't think he is a good WR, and a problem in the locker room who can't stay healthy. Thought the trade was just a panic move by Idzik.

If they are going to spend 10.5 million on a WR, I actually want a WR, who can run routes.

With around 50 million in cap space, and a draft coming up that has 7-8 potentially good WR's. If the Jets go into the season with only Decker and Kerley, maybe Macc isn't the GM we hope he is.

That's not going to happen

The draft does have some good WRs, though you're not sure if the Jets are in position to draft any. Cooper is the only one worth the #6 pick. If he's gone, some others come off the board before the second round. Maybe you trade down or up, but it's still risky.

Best case scenario is spend the money you would spend on Harvin on another WR during the first week of free agency. Land a Thomas, cut Harvin, and keep the pick. But there needs to be mutual interest for that to happen.

 

[GratefulJet]

The draft does have some good WRs, though you're not sure if the Jets are in position to draft any. Cooper is the only one worth the #6 pick. If he's gone, some others come off the board before the second round. Maybe you trade down or up, but it's still risky.

Best case scenario is spend the money you would spend on Harvin on another WR during the first week of free agency. Land a Thomas, cut Harvin, and keep the pick. But there needs to be mutual interest for that to happen.

Once the combine and pro days are over, Cooper may not even be the first WR off the board anymore. White and Parker are gaining on him.

 

[flgreen]

Once the combine and pro days are over, Cooper may not even be the first WR off the board anymore. White and Parker are gaining on him.

Yep

A lot of people are going to be surprised I think. There really isn't that much difference between Cooper, and White