Analytics in the NFL

Elias

The Invisible Man
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Jet Fanatics
Jets Global
Great article in ESPN highlighting how teams in the sport use analytics to do their scouting and coaching and overall roster management. They rank all 32 teams but for our purposes, I am just going to copy and paste the AFC East teams.

They rank them in five categories: All-in, Believer (Pats), One Foot In (Bills and Dolphins), Skeptics and Non-believers (Jets). Out of all the sports, the NFL is the most reluctant to adopt Analytics.

Pats

One NFL analytics professional called the Patriots a "big black hole" when it comes to revealing any secrets, which of course applies to most everything they do under coach Bill Belichick. But some evidence of the implementation of analytics has escaped the Patriots' gravitational field, and it suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.

Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.

Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: "Ernie's really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie's very, very smart.''

One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.

On the field, Belichick's approach appears less consistent. His failed fourth-down gambit against the Colts in 2009 was decried by fans but cheered by analysts who recommend that teams play more aggressively. But in other cases, he has coached rather conservatively, defying his reputation.

Regardless, there is little doubt that the Patriots invest time and energy looking for every edge, and their commitment to ruthlessly outsmarting the competition is a Belichick trademark.

Bills

Bills CEO Russ Brandon declared his intent to build a "robust" analytics department in January 2013. He hired Mike Lyons, an MIT engineering graduate, as director of analytics in October that year and heralded then-coach Doug Marrone's commitment to data via Catapult Sports' technology for monitoring exertion in practice and player health.

Buffalo's follow-through has been halting. Lyons' work didn't register with Marrone, and the coach routinely punted or kicked field goals on makeable fourth downs when a commitment to analytics would have led to a less rigid approach.

"I think you have to consider the environment in which those analytics are done," Marrone said in 2014. "Because, if it was proven that way and it was definitely a fact, I think that you would see all of us do it. None of us are going to put our teams in jeopardy to do that. . . . A lot of times, when people on the outside are looking in, I don't know if they truly understand what the data is and where it's coming from."

It remains to be seen whether the Bills can impose a more effective influence on Ryan, who employed traditional game management during his tenure with the Jets.


Dolphins

Owner Steve Ross and general manager Dennis Hickey have become proponents of analytics, and new VP of football operations Mike Tannenbaum, formerly with the Jets, is a recent convert. Ross is a heavy user of analytics in his real estate business and has been frustrated by its relative infancy in the NFL.

In the summer of 2014, the team hired Dennis Lock, who holds a graduate degree in statistics, as head analyst (now director of analytics) to "head a football analytics group." At the same time, the Dolphins announced the hiring of sports science analyst Dave Regan, and in September, Tom Pasquali, with a graduate degree in applied statistics and experience in the Yankees' front office, joined Lock's staff.

Tannenbaum said in January he was planning to hire a "sports performance director" and acknowledged, "We have a long way to go, but we started something in terms of trying to give ourselves a competitive advantage."

Miami has monitored player health for several years, and coach Joe Philbin has altered his practice schedule to improve sleep habits by becoming the only coach to give players Thursday off. But Philbin focuses on game film far more than stats, and it remains to be seen how well he'll use Miami's burgeoning analytics department.

Jets

For the past six seasons, the Jets were built around the old-school sensibilities of Rex Ryan, with line coach Dave DeGuglielmo summing up the traditional mindset with a 2012 rant against analytics: "All of a sudden we're 'Moneyballing' offensive lineman," he said. "[The] world I live in isn't a fantasy world."

Ryan's departure does not herald a new approach to analytics. Team owner Woody Johnson has given no indication analytics will be incorporated into the Jets' football operations.

New GM Mike Maccagnan, whose background is as a scout and scouting director, has spent most of his NFL career with the Houston Texans, one of the least analytics-friendly organizations in the NFL. New coach Todd Bowles comes from the Arizona Cardinals, another organization that has done little with analytics. It's safe to say that bringing analytics to the Jets was not a priority in either hire.

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#nfl-nyj
 
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ucrenegade

Guest
really sad to see this because analytic's is just another way of scouting people.

You use the analytic's to verify the guys you want to look at then you do the old-fashioned scouting eye test.

put the two together and you have what I believe to be the winning formula for scouting.
 
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ucrenegade

Guest
be interested to see what all the teams do esp giants if you have that link elias?
 

Football51

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics
I'm not sure they know what this new regime will do. Bowles, as a HC, really wouldn't have much to do with this and his two year stay in Arizona shouldn't lead one to draw conclusions. I see a young, dynamic front office. Our new director of player personnel(Heimerdinger) is only 28 years old. I'm sure he would be interested in innovative scouting methods.
 
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ucrenegade

Guest
I'm not sure they know what this new regime will do. Bowles, as a HC, really wouldn't have much to do with this and his two year stay in Arizona shouldn't lead one to draw conclusions. I see a young, dynamic front office. Our new director of player personnel(Heimerdinger) is only 28 years old. I'm sure he would be interested in innovative scouting methods.

yeah have to chk rams and bears front offices see if they used it.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
Great article in ESPN highlighting how teams in the sport use analytics to do their scouting and coaching and overall roster management. They rank all 32 teams but for our purposes, I am just going to copy and paste the AFC East teams.

They rank them in five categories: All-in, Believer (Pats), One Foot In (Bills and Dolphins), Skeptics and Non-believers (Jets). Out of all the sports, the NFL is the most reluctant to adopt Analytics.


http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#nfl-nyj


It's interesting that the ending AFC East standings are the reverse of the analytics order. Coincidence?

EDIT: Oops. I meant the same order.
 

Elias

The Invisible Man
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Jets Global
It's interesting that the ending AFC East standings are the reverse of the analytics order. Coincidence?

EDIT: Oops. I meant the same order.

I like the way Philly uses data. I think their team has been extremely healthy since Chip took over. I may be mistaken though.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
I like the way Philly uses data. I think their team has been extremely healthy since Chip took over. I may be mistaken though.

I think any team that does not take advantage of everything that can help is making a mistake. Simply add the analytics to everything else you do and you get an advantage over the teams that don't. Of course the Jets would have to be one of the laggards. Not good.
 

Elias

The Invisible Man
Big Fish
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Jets Global
I think any team that does not take advantage of everything that can help is making a mistake. Simply add the analytics to everything else you do and you get an advantage over the teams that don't. Of course the Jets would have to be one of the laggards. Not good.

Smartest guys in the room
 

Elias

The Invisible Man
Big Fish
Jet Fanatics
Jets Global
Found this interesting tidbit. If the future for QB evaluations is as Sean Payton expects, than whoa!

. Robo QB: New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton, on a panel that covered cutting-edge technology, said he envisions the day when teams have a "quarterback simulator," as he called it -- a virtual-reality contraption in which quarterbacks can "face" specific opponents. Because of the limited amount of practice time under the collective bargaining agreement, a simulator would allow quarterbacks to get the extra practice reps they don't get on the field, he said. Think about it: If your rookie quarterback is preparing to play a complex defensive scheme, he can strap on a pair of high-tech goggles and play a virtual game against that defense.

It also could be a great tool for evaluating quarterbacks in the draft. Imagine conducting a virtual contest between Mariota and Jameis Winston, testing their decision-making, reaction time, anticipation, etc. against a "real" defense. Why stop there? The Jets could stage a virtual quarterback competition, which probably would be more intense than the actual competition that occurred last summer.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/49505/jets-notes-analytics-marcus-mariota-and-qb-chatter?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
Forget about simulating a QB competition. How about simulating putting your potential draft pick up against an actual NFL opposing team, including your own actual offense as far as you know it by draft time. If the simulation is accurate, that would revolutionize the way the draft is conducted.

But the "accurate" part would also be the hard part.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
Not sure how you can fairly judge a QB who knows the simulator can't hit him.

Well, if it's done right that will be in the simulator. Sort of like Madden Football. The stats are in there, so the simulated players should respond appropriately. But I am skeptical it can be accurate.
 

Elias

The Invisible Man
Big Fish
Jet Fanatics
Jets Global
Well, if it's done right that will be in the simulator. Sort of like Madden Football. The stats are in there, so the simulated players should respond appropriately. But I am skeptical it can be accurate.

I think in that exercise you would look to see how he reacts to pressure. It won't be exact but provide valuable data that you can translate to an in game situation. Just me guessing
 
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