Marcus Mariota Or Jameis Winston: Who's The Better Prospect?
By David_Wyatt @D_wyatt13 on Oct 29 2014, 5:00p 667
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
With Geno Smith sinking to new levels of ineptitude in his three 1st quarter interceptions against the Buffalo Bills, the question of the 2015 draft eligible quarterbacks was always likely to come up. So I've decided to post a very early look at two of college's finest QB's and what makes them tick.
The word in college football is that both Mariota and Winston will leave Oregon and Florda State respectively and enter the 2015 NFL draft. Let me preface this whole article my stating categorically that there are more QB prospects worth looking at in this draft than just those two. Guys like Connor Cook from Michigan State, Brett Hundley from UCLA and Garrett Grayson (a personal favorite of mine) from Colorado State all have talent and when we get closer to the draft, we'll start to take a closer look at all of these guys. However, at this moment in time, it is generally agreed that Mariota and Winston are top 5 prospects and with the Jets sitting at 1-7 and experiencing horrible quarterback play, it's logical to ask the question in the headline.
When evaluating a quarterback prospect, I'll always look at the following::smiley-cool11::smiley-cool11::smiley-cool11:
Character
Size
Arm Strength
Accuracy
Delivery/Release
Running Ability
QB Intelligence
Drop Back/Feet
Pocket Presence/Poise
Leadership
So if you'll stay with me throughout. I'm going to focus on each aspect and give you my thoughts. I expect many won't agree, but that's why every team's draft board is different. I wrote an article some time ago (2010) about "Trusting The System: The NFL Scout" which highlighted a few aspects of scouting in general. Everyone has their favorite prospects, the guys you'll defend to the end. I always defended Harrison Smith, as well as a number of other prospects over the years, most of them from Notre Dame. I always respect opinions of others even if I don't agree with them, all the observations below are my own and based on the games I've witnessed.
Character
When I think of the two players, I think of two entirely different prospects who will bring entirely different qualities to your team. It confuses me when people tell me to take character out of it, that's not how you evaluate players. You have to include character because that can cause a mountain of problems and issues that permeate throughout your franchise. Marcus Mariota has an outstanding character, a nice approachable guy who studies hard, keeps his nose clean and understands he is the leading figure of a major FBS program who can't afford to lose him to silly immature mistakes. Jameis Winston obviously has some growing up to do, he has been caught doing several silly things that have cost him game time and respect.
The character issues with Jameis Winston are quite concerning. He was accused of sexual assault, and although he was never charged there was a big investigation into irregularities of the police investigation. I don't want to get into this, but look closely and something doesn't seem right. He brought a BB gun onto campus and shot at squirrels. He has on numerous occasions shoplifted small items and earlier this year he was suspended for an entire game after a vulgar incident at the student union. I've read numerous quotes from scouts, GM's who say his character is a red flag and the best thing he can do is stay in school and mature as a person. Some will say it's just a kid being a kid, I disagree, after all I don't want to put the keys to the franchise's future in the hands of a kid.
That's character, personality and maturity. I don't think anyone can argue that Marcus Mariota is by far, the more accomplished in his regard and the more reliable player off the field. Whether you put much importance on that or not, we live in the social media age where everything is caught on video, it's far more important to have a clean character now than it was in the 1990's.
Better prospect in this category: Marcus Mariota
Size
Both prospects possess excellent size for the position. Marcus Mariota is 6'4 219lb's and Jameis Winston is 6'4 and 230lb's. Winston possesses a better build and reminds a lot of people of Big Ben, which I can understand. Mariota has a leaner frame but he still has enough strength to work through tackles. Winston however has the broader shoulders, the thicker waist and uses his size to avoid a lot of pressures and potential sacks. There really isn't a lot to choose from between them, they both have the height but Winston has the build. When both player evaluations come in at the end of the college season, size will be listed as a strength for both.
Winston
© Melina Vastola | 2014 Oct 18
Better prospect in this caegory: Jameis Winston
Arm Strength
For some reason, some people seem to suggest that Mariota has a weak arm because the majority of his throws in college only travel a short distance. This is simply a false assumption based on offensive system. Mariota while not elite has above average arm strength and I've seen him throw the ball down field with ease. Although he works out of a spread offense at Oregon, and a lot of the throws are on quick reads and behind the line of scrimmage, that doesn't mean he can't throw down field. At times he has had to throw down field and his arm strength has never been an issue in any game I've witnessed. If you're rating the arm strength out of 10, you're probably giving Marcus a very solid 7.5.
This is a category that Winston really excels in. In 10th grade, Winston could throw a football 70 yards through the air. His first year in college he was throwing balls over frat houses. The video that is available on youtube shows him slinging a ball a fair distance with ease. Andrew Luck has a once in a generation arm when it comes to arm strength, however Winston isn't far away from that. He constantly throws the ball down-field as FSU and he makes every single throw with zip. It's very rare to see a ball under-thrown when it's coming out of his hand. Some times he puts too much mustard on the shorter throws, making it a little difficult for his receivers to catch the ball.However that's not the question here. Rating his arm strength out of 10, you're probably giving him a very good 9.#
Pure Arm Strength
Better prospect in this caegory: Jameis Winston
Accuracy
Again, some will try to argue that the superb accuracy that Marcus Mariota exhibits is down entirely to the offense he runs. I've seen a lot of Oregon games this year and last year and that's simply not true. Yes, running a spread offense is always going to help a QB but when asked to thrown down field, make post-snap reads and deliver the ball to the correct spot, Mariota is at the top of the college QB chart. I've seen him make accurate throws on the run, to the outside, over the middle, down the sideline, in the flats, on check downs, on hot reads and going deep. His ball placement is among the elite, one of the finest I've seen since I started watching prospects over a decade ago. He has enjoyed 68.5% (2012), 63.5% (2013) and 68.8% (2014) completion percentages in college. His ability to spot the ball in the face of pressure means he has a very valuable asset that a lot of teams will like when they come to evaluate him for their teams.
Currently, Jameis Winston is enjoying a very accurate season with Florida State. Last year he enjoyed a 66.9% completion record and this year he is currently throwing 70.6% completion. However saying that, his ball placement isn't half as good as Mariota's and he often throws balls up for grabs with plenty of air under it. Luckily last year he had Kelvin Benjamin who helped out a lot on those jump balls. Now that is not to say that Winston is inaccurate, not at all. His accuracy on deep throws is elite, he sometimes misses on the intermediate throws over the middle, which come down to timing, but with the completion percentage, you can see that's not a major issue. I don't think Winston will maintain his 70% completion record but he'll end up around the 65% mark.This is a very close call for who I consider to have the better accuracy, however in terms of ball placement, I have to go with:
By David_Wyatt @D_wyatt13 on Oct 29 2014, 5:00p 667
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
With Geno Smith sinking to new levels of ineptitude in his three 1st quarter interceptions against the Buffalo Bills, the question of the 2015 draft eligible quarterbacks was always likely to come up. So I've decided to post a very early look at two of college's finest QB's and what makes them tick.
The word in college football is that both Mariota and Winston will leave Oregon and Florda State respectively and enter the 2015 NFL draft. Let me preface this whole article my stating categorically that there are more QB prospects worth looking at in this draft than just those two. Guys like Connor Cook from Michigan State, Brett Hundley from UCLA and Garrett Grayson (a personal favorite of mine) from Colorado State all have talent and when we get closer to the draft, we'll start to take a closer look at all of these guys. However, at this moment in time, it is generally agreed that Mariota and Winston are top 5 prospects and with the Jets sitting at 1-7 and experiencing horrible quarterback play, it's logical to ask the question in the headline.
When evaluating a quarterback prospect, I'll always look at the following::smiley-cool11::smiley-cool11::smiley-cool11:
Character
Size
Arm Strength
Accuracy
Delivery/Release
Running Ability
QB Intelligence
Drop Back/Feet
Pocket Presence/Poise
Leadership
So if you'll stay with me throughout. I'm going to focus on each aspect and give you my thoughts. I expect many won't agree, but that's why every team's draft board is different. I wrote an article some time ago (2010) about "Trusting The System: The NFL Scout" which highlighted a few aspects of scouting in general. Everyone has their favorite prospects, the guys you'll defend to the end. I always defended Harrison Smith, as well as a number of other prospects over the years, most of them from Notre Dame. I always respect opinions of others even if I don't agree with them, all the observations below are my own and based on the games I've witnessed.
Character
When I think of the two players, I think of two entirely different prospects who will bring entirely different qualities to your team. It confuses me when people tell me to take character out of it, that's not how you evaluate players. You have to include character because that can cause a mountain of problems and issues that permeate throughout your franchise. Marcus Mariota has an outstanding character, a nice approachable guy who studies hard, keeps his nose clean and understands he is the leading figure of a major FBS program who can't afford to lose him to silly immature mistakes. Jameis Winston obviously has some growing up to do, he has been caught doing several silly things that have cost him game time and respect.
The character issues with Jameis Winston are quite concerning. He was accused of sexual assault, and although he was never charged there was a big investigation into irregularities of the police investigation. I don't want to get into this, but look closely and something doesn't seem right. He brought a BB gun onto campus and shot at squirrels. He has on numerous occasions shoplifted small items and earlier this year he was suspended for an entire game after a vulgar incident at the student union. I've read numerous quotes from scouts, GM's who say his character is a red flag and the best thing he can do is stay in school and mature as a person. Some will say it's just a kid being a kid, I disagree, after all I don't want to put the keys to the franchise's future in the hands of a kid.
That's character, personality and maturity. I don't think anyone can argue that Marcus Mariota is by far, the more accomplished in his regard and the more reliable player off the field. Whether you put much importance on that or not, we live in the social media age where everything is caught on video, it's far more important to have a clean character now than it was in the 1990's.
Better prospect in this category: Marcus Mariota
Size
Both prospects possess excellent size for the position. Marcus Mariota is 6'4 219lb's and Jameis Winston is 6'4 and 230lb's. Winston possesses a better build and reminds a lot of people of Big Ben, which I can understand. Mariota has a leaner frame but he still has enough strength to work through tackles. Winston however has the broader shoulders, the thicker waist and uses his size to avoid a lot of pressures and potential sacks. There really isn't a lot to choose from between them, they both have the height but Winston has the build. When both player evaluations come in at the end of the college season, size will be listed as a strength for both.
Winston
© Melina Vastola | 2014 Oct 18
Better prospect in this caegory: Jameis Winston
Arm Strength
For some reason, some people seem to suggest that Mariota has a weak arm because the majority of his throws in college only travel a short distance. This is simply a false assumption based on offensive system. Mariota while not elite has above average arm strength and I've seen him throw the ball down field with ease. Although he works out of a spread offense at Oregon, and a lot of the throws are on quick reads and behind the line of scrimmage, that doesn't mean he can't throw down field. At times he has had to throw down field and his arm strength has never been an issue in any game I've witnessed. If you're rating the arm strength out of 10, you're probably giving Marcus a very solid 7.5.
This is a category that Winston really excels in. In 10th grade, Winston could throw a football 70 yards through the air. His first year in college he was throwing balls over frat houses. The video that is available on youtube shows him slinging a ball a fair distance with ease. Andrew Luck has a once in a generation arm when it comes to arm strength, however Winston isn't far away from that. He constantly throws the ball down-field as FSU and he makes every single throw with zip. It's very rare to see a ball under-thrown when it's coming out of his hand. Some times he puts too much mustard on the shorter throws, making it a little difficult for his receivers to catch the ball.However that's not the question here. Rating his arm strength out of 10, you're probably giving him a very good 9.#
Pure Arm Strength
Better prospect in this caegory: Jameis Winston
Accuracy
Again, some will try to argue that the superb accuracy that Marcus Mariota exhibits is down entirely to the offense he runs. I've seen a lot of Oregon games this year and last year and that's simply not true. Yes, running a spread offense is always going to help a QB but when asked to thrown down field, make post-snap reads and deliver the ball to the correct spot, Mariota is at the top of the college QB chart. I've seen him make accurate throws on the run, to the outside, over the middle, down the sideline, in the flats, on check downs, on hot reads and going deep. His ball placement is among the elite, one of the finest I've seen since I started watching prospects over a decade ago. He has enjoyed 68.5% (2012), 63.5% (2013) and 68.8% (2014) completion percentages in college. His ability to spot the ball in the face of pressure means he has a very valuable asset that a lot of teams will like when they come to evaluate him for their teams.
Currently, Jameis Winston is enjoying a very accurate season with Florida State. Last year he enjoyed a 66.9% completion record and this year he is currently throwing 70.6% completion. However saying that, his ball placement isn't half as good as Mariota's and he often throws balls up for grabs with plenty of air under it. Luckily last year he had Kelvin Benjamin who helped out a lot on those jump balls. Now that is not to say that Winston is inaccurate, not at all. His accuracy on deep throws is elite, he sometimes misses on the intermediate throws over the middle, which come down to timing, but with the completion percentage, you can see that's not a major issue. I don't think Winston will maintain his 70% completion record but he'll end up around the 65% mark.This is a very close call for who I consider to have the better accuracy, however in terms of ball placement, I have to go with:
