Anatomy of a mid-season collapse: Examining why Jets have sputtered

[gmf1369]

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FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- It's not hard to figure out the theme this week at One Jets Drive: Back to basics -- specifically, back to algebra.


Let's explain.


On Wednesday, New York Jets coach Todd Bowles was asked if the offense -- struggling during the team's 1-4 slump -- has lost its identity. He used a math analogy to explain that, yes, the offense has veered off course.


"We probably tried to go to trigonometry, when we should've stay with algebra," he said. "I think we're getting back to basics. Algebra was running the ball, throwing it when we can, and play action. And playing complementary football. We're trying to get back to that."
The obvious question is, why did they try to tackle trigonometry?


"I think it's a natural progression," Bowles said. "You go 4-1, and the more you win, the more creative you try to be, on both sides of the ball. At some point, it gets to a point where it's too creative. And then you've got to back down, and go back to basics, and try to get your feet back under you again."


Give Bowles credit for acknowledging that adjustments are needed on offense. At their best, the Jets are a ball-control team, pounding defenses with large doses of Chris Ivory. They've strayed from that blueprint in recent weeks. The "too creative" comment ... that's a bit of a head scratcher. It might be Bowles' way of saying they're passing too much.


Let's not forget the man's roots: Bowles is a defensive-minded coach and, as we saw with Rex Ryan over six years, defensive-minded coaches want to run the ball. The difference in philosophy led to a clash between Ryan and his last offfensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, known for his pass-happy approach.


There's no evidence to suggest the same is happening between Bowles and Chan Gailey. For now, we'll call it an in-season self-evaluation/adjustment.


"I think that he's right," quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick said of the algebra/trigonometry analogy. "We try to complicate things too much at times, and you almost end up outsmarting yourself. We want to get back to doing what we're good at, whether it's me or the routes the receivers are running, running backs, tight ends, linemen. We're going to play to our strengths, and do what we're good at -- and not try to be too cute."

 

[gmf1369]

Anatomy of a mid-season collapse: Examining why Jets have sputtered

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FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Five reasons why the New York Jets (5-5) have dropped four of their past five games, leaving them on the brink of falling out of the playoff race:


1. Stars have dimmed: The big-name players with the big salaries have, for various reasons, slipped in recent weeks. We're talking about Brandon Marshall, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold and Chris Ivory on offense; Antonio Cromartie, Darrelle Revis and Buster Skrine on defense. Much of the team's early-season success was due to big-time performances by Marshall, Ivory and Revis, but their consistency has waned. This isn't to suggest they can't rebound over the final six weeks, but five of the aforementioned seven players are 30 and up. Logic tells us a late-season resurgence is less likely with older players.


2. Loss of identity: Good teams know what they do best and they stick with it. The Jets have forgotten who they are, particularly on offense. In the first five games, they ran the ball a lot (a league-high 32.6 carries per game) and they ran it well (4.48 yards per attempt). Over the past five games, the average number of carries has dropped to 24.6 (18th) and efficiency has nosedived to a shockingly low 3.2 per rush (30th). Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has become pass-reliant, putting too much pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick. To get the best out of Fitzpatrick, the Jets need to keep him under 30 attempts, operating a balanced attack. A little creativity in the running game would help. The Jets have to dust off their old blueprint.

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Brandon Marshall is among the Jets stars whose production has dipped amid the team's recent struggles. AP Photo/David J. Phillip
3. Aging O-line: For years, the Jets were blessed with good health and continuity on the offensive line. This season, not so much. Right guard Willie Colon (knee) is done for the season and Mangold has missed the equivalent of two games with hand and neck injuries. It's no coincidence the running game started to fall apart when Mangold, the center, got hurt. His replacement, Wesley Johnson, had no previous NFL experience in the pivot. The front office will have to make some tough decisions in the offseason. Mangold and Ferguson are both 31, and the line needs fresh blood.


4. The 4-3 isn't working: When Sheldon Richardson returned from his suspension in Week 6, the Jets adjusted the defense, morphing from a 3-4 scheme into more 4-3 fronts. It seemed to make sense because it allowed the Big Four -- Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison and Leonard Williams -- to play at the same time, at least on first and second downs. In reality, it hasn't helped because the Jets are essentially playing with four defensive tackles, hurting the outside pass rush. Less pressure means fewer hurried throws, and that has resulted in fewer takeaways -- only five over the past five games, compared to 15 in the first five. It's simple, really: When the Jets have multiple takeaways in a game, they win. They're 5-0 in those games.


5. Missing speed: The Jets lack explosive athletes at a few key positions, and it's catching up to them. Marshall and Eric Decker are a terrific tandem, but they're bigger receivers and need time to get into their pass routes. Gailey's offense is predicated on quick throws, and the Jets don't have a receiver who can create immediate separation. Jeremy Kerley used to be that guy, but the new staff doesn't regard him as highly as the previous staff. Rookie Devin Smith could be that guy, but he hasn't developed as quickly as hoped. The lack of a home-run threat in the backfield also has become more pronounced. The running backs have produced only one play (run or catch) longer than 25 yards in the past five games. Defensively, the Jets don't have a speedy pass-rusher on the edge. See item No. 4.

 

[ucrenegade]

Key to fixing Jets' offense? Forget trigonometry, return to algebra

Key to fixing Jets' offense? Forget trigonometry, return to algebra

hopefully bowles backs-up his talks more than rex did

 

[ucrenegade]

good post and analysis

 

[johnnysd]

Point 2 is bogus but typical analysis. NFL pundits seem to think you can be more effective at running by being committed to it and running more and that is very very rarely the case.

Three biggest issues:

1. Continuing to start Fitz who opposing teams have figured out how to shut down, and historically fades badly as the year goes on.
2. Age and lack of speed and a head coach that stubbornly continues to play old slow veterans
3. Bowles is just not a very good HC

 

[jetgreen13]

Point 2 is bogus but typical analysis. NFL pundits seem to think you can be more effective at running by being committed to it and running more and that is very very rarely the case.

Three biggest issues:

1. Continuing to start Fitz who opposing teams have figured out how to shut down, and historically fades badly as the year goes on.
2. Age and lack of speed and a head coach that stubbornly continues to play old slow veterans
3. Bowles is just not a very good HC

I have my concerns about bowles but not enough to label him just over half way through his rookie season..

our 3rd year backup QB on the other hand......

 

[Elias]

Agree. I'm concerned about Bowles and some of his decisions but it's way to early to call him a bust.

 

[gastineau]

Running is effective if you have 2 good RB's so to keep them with fresh legs. Also use Plays that fool Defenses by not telling Defenses its a run play or a pass play. Since Gailey shows Defenses when Jets are running the load up 9-10 in the box. So Jets have only 1 true RB Ivory. Also not using TE's until 8th game of season also didnt help. So Jets didnt even start Play Action till game 3 & didnt use TE in passing game until around game 8. All this causes Jets Defense to be onthe field more. Fitz have done well since Defenses know whats coming at them & line up to stop it. Gaileys system from 1990's got to go. Look at Pats who has a roster of 4 TE's & puts 2 TE's on field with WR's giving Brady many options to get rid of the ball. Fitz has 2 WR's to pass to. Using both Jets WR's-TE Cumberland & Ivory in passing game would create options & harder to cover all then the current system schemes Gailey's running. I didnt want Gailey hired. As a person I'm sure he is a great guy, just not a modern OC & behind in times. Seen it before with Al Davis still trying to run the long pass schemes from 70's.

 

[JohnnyBaseball1]

I dunno, I find the rookie head coach thing to be kinda lame. I mean, shouldn't a rookie head coach be like a 20 year veteran of football? I guess there's probably still a lot to learn but still, it's kinda like Willie Randolph not knowing how to double switch. I still think the clock management has been downright weird, the usage of timeouts has been bad, the game management hasn't been there. I worry about these things costing us an important game, and just hope he is learning and growing as a coach. But at the same time, the players just look lethargic. But so does Bowles. I don't know. I feel like we have been just getting physically handled and thats not really his fault, but there are issues that will become prominent in close, important games.

 

[jetgreen13]

I dunno, I find the rookie head coach thing to be kinda lame. I mean, shouldn't a rookie head coach be like a 20 year veteran of football? I guess there's probably still a lot to learn but still, it's kinda like Willie Randolph not knowing how to double switch. I still think the clock management has been downright weird, the usage of timeouts has been bad, the game management hasn't been there. I worry about these things costing us an important game, and just hope he is learning and growing as a coach. But at the same time, the players just look lethargic. But so does Bowles. I don't know. I feel like we have been just getting physically handled and thats not really his fault, but there are issues that will become prominent in close, important games.

being "the guy" is much different than being one of the guys "assistants.."

what is, is..

 

[flgreen]

Cool. Fitz is going to spin out some quadratic equations to Marshall. Can't wait

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

Point 2 is bogus but typical analysis. NFL pundits seem to think you can be more effective at running by being committed to it and running more and that is very very rarely the case.

Three biggest issues:

1. Continuing to start Fitz who opposing teams have figured out how to shut down, and historically fades badly as the year goes on.
2. Age and lack of speed and a head coach that stubbornly continues to play old slow veterans
3. Bowles is just not a very good HC

Disagree with all three points. Fitzpatrick is the best option at QB. I don't know how anyone can't see that. This talk of his "struggles" are exaggerated. He's been victimized by bad drops recently, and no running game to speak of. A QB of his caliber cannot survive under those circumstances. Anyone who expected this guy to play like Aaron Rodgers is living in a dream world.

The age thing is baloney, IMO. The players mentioned are roughly 31 years old. The writer of this article acts like they're 36. Brandon Marshall and Nick Mangold are still very good players. These guys didn't just fall off a cliff. When you start losing though, all the criticisms come out of the woodwork.

Bowles is a rookie coach. How anyone could presume to know his long term prospects as a HC is absurd. Nobody knows right now how he'll turn out. Even though plenty of people think they know.

 

[soj]

Disagree with all three points. Fitzpatrick is the best option at QB. I don't know how anyone can't see that. This talk of his "struggles" are exaggerated. He's been victimized by bad drops recently, and no running game to speak of. A QB of his caliber cannot survive under those circumstances. Anyone who expected this guy to play like Aaron Rodgers is living in a dream world.

The age thing is baloney, IMO. The players mentioned are roughly 31 years old. The writer of this article acts like they're 36. Brandon Marshall and Nick Mangold are still very good players. These guys didn't just fall off a cliff. When you start losing though, all the criticisms come out of the woodwork.

Bowles is a rookie coach. How anyone could presume to know his long term prospects as a HC is absurd. Nobody knows right now how he'll turn out. Even though plenty of people think they know.

Very logical post ... one thing I been stateing is that the loss of colon started the slide of the OL and as sated before Mr. M missing a couple of games has really affected the OL play.....

 

[soj]

uep I read that... BUT OL needs to be better blocking the run and we need to disguise some of the running plays. If not then we shall see the same dam thing... BTW lets hope the WR learn how to catch better and get separation

 

[johnnysd]

Disagree with all three points. Fitzpatrick is the best option at QB. I don't know how anyone can't see that. This talk of his "struggles" are exaggerated. He's been victimized by bad drops recently, and no running game to speak of. A QB of his caliber cannot survive under those circumstances. Anyone who expected this guy to play like Aaron Rodgers is living in a dream world.

The age thing is baloney, IMO. The players mentioned are roughly 31 years old. The writer of this article acts like they're 36. Brandon Marshall and Nick Mangold are still very good players. These guys didn't just fall off a cliff. When you start losing though, all the criticisms come out of the woodwork.

Bowles is a rookie coach. How anyone could presume to know his long term prospects as a HC is absurd. Nobody knows right now how he'll turn out. Even though plenty of people think they know.

I find it mind boggling that anyone thinks that Fitz is even remotely effective as a QB

 

[flgreen]

I find it mind boggling that anyone thinks that Fitz is even remotely effective as a QB

Hmmmm

Speaking of mind boggling, who on the roster do you think is better?

 

[johnnysd]

Hmmmm

Speaking of mind boggling, who on the roster do you think is better?

Geno would be better in this offense. Probably Petty as well

 

[flgreen]

Geno would be better in this offense. Probably Petty as well

Like I said, "speaking of mind boggling". smith is a failed back up QB who most likely won't be on the team next season. Petty is a rookie who judging by the fact that they still have said failed QB as a back up, the CS has, IMO wisely decided to give a red shirt year.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

Geno would be better in this offense. Probably Petty as well

Geno isn't as terrible as some fans suggest, but I don't believe the Jets are any better right now with him in. Probably a loss or two worse, actually. It's all speculative, but there aren't any better alternatives on the roster than Fitz. Petty would be making typical rookie mistakes right now, and the fans would be losing their minds over why a rookie QB is playing, ect.

I've watched every second of every game. My eyeballs tell me Fitzpatrick is the least of the Jets concerns right now. They've got bigger problems in a lot of different areas.

 

[jetgreen13]

Geno isn't as terrible as some fans suggest, but I don't believe the Jets are any better right now with him in. Probably a loss or two worse, actually. It's all speculative, but there aren't any better alternatives on the roster than Fitz. Petty would be making typical rookie mistakes right now, and the fans would be losing their minds over why a rookie QB is playing, ect.

I've watched every second of every game. My eyeballs tell me Fitzpatrick is the least of the Jets concerns right now. They've got bigger problems in a lot of different areas.

good post brick..

IMHO, smith's problems with many jets fans is almost equal parts on the field & off..

he has less of a chance to resurrect his career here then sanchez did (which means none) mostly because he's so unlikable..