During a recent episode of PFT Live, producer Rob “Stats” Guerrera and I went through the 32-team NFL standing and identified the teams that could be changing coaches after the season. We ultimately set the over/under at 7.5.
And both of us took the over. Which means that we think at least eight coaching jobs — 25 percent of the league — will come open.
While some coaches on the hot seat will do enough to survive, guys who have to at least be worrying a little right now include Jets coach Todd Bowles, Ravens coach John Harbaugh, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, Browns coach Hue Jackson, Texans coach Bill O’Brien, Colts coach Chuck Pagano, Giants coach Ben McAdoo (pictured), Bears coach John Fox, and Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter. That’s nine, already.
Those who could find themselves in trouble, if things fall apart down the stretch, include Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, Packers coach Mike McCarthy, Raiders coach Jack Del Rio, and maybe (maybe) Washington coach Jay Gruden and Broncos coach Vance Joseph.
As to Joseph, he would land squarely in the “surprise firing” category. But there’s one surprise every year, and even though a one-and-done outcome seems harsh, it has happened plenty of times, with the 49ers doing it in 2015 (Jim Tomsula) and 2016 (Chip Kelly). The Broncos, 3-6 and losers of five in a row, have grossly underachieved this year, in light of expectations. And failure to meet expectations become the prime ingredient in a decision to fire any coach.
To those who get squeamish when this topic comes up, two points. First, most coaches get paid for at least a year or two after they’re fired. Second, possibly getting fired goes with the territory; indeed, coaches repeatedly and routinely fire players.
And both of us took the over. Which means that we think at least eight coaching jobs — 25 percent of the league — will come open.
While some coaches on the hot seat will do enough to survive, guys who have to at least be worrying a little right now include Jets coach Todd Bowles, Ravens coach John Harbaugh, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, Browns coach Hue Jackson, Texans coach Bill O’Brien, Colts coach Chuck Pagano, Giants coach Ben McAdoo (pictured), Bears coach John Fox, and Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter. That’s nine, already.
Those who could find themselves in trouble, if things fall apart down the stretch, include Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, Packers coach Mike McCarthy, Raiders coach Jack Del Rio, and maybe (maybe) Washington coach Jay Gruden and Broncos coach Vance Joseph.
As to Joseph, he would land squarely in the “surprise firing” category. But there’s one surprise every year, and even though a one-and-done outcome seems harsh, it has happened plenty of times, with the 49ers doing it in 2015 (Jim Tomsula) and 2016 (Chip Kelly). The Broncos, 3-6 and losers of five in a row, have grossly underachieved this year, in light of expectations. And failure to meet expectations become the prime ingredient in a decision to fire any coach.
To those who get squeamish when this topic comes up, two points. First, most coaches get paid for at least a year or two after they’re fired. Second, possibly getting fired goes with the territory; indeed, coaches repeatedly and routinely fire players.
