"Take it to the bank": my 5 locks of what to expect in the April draft

Pointdexter

Pro Bowl Alternate
Jet Fanatics
Take it to the bank:

1) We will be selecting a QB somewhere in the 7 round draft. Any mock done without us taking a signal caller is incomplete. I think Macc is too smart to allow another year to go by without starting to develop someone, who will need a couple years to get comfortable. Waiting one more year to draft someone only puts us one more year behind schedule to being ready to compete with a franchise guy. We're not waiting for that. And the idea that a good QB comes available in FA is fiction; it doesn't happen. I think right now it's even money between Mariota, Petty, Hundley, and Grayson. I think we have our eye on all four of those guys. This brings me to #2 ...

2) Tennessee is not taking Mariota at #2 . I don't buy what we heard yesterday, about Mariota being a day 1 starter if he's there at 2, for a second. One of the more obvious bluffs I've heard in recent years. Tenn wants to see if anyone get antsy and trades up for Mariota because they would love the extra picks. This tells me two things: not only do they not love Mariota over what's already on the roster, but it also tells me that they feel Leonard Williams isn't a talent that's too good to pass on. Brings me to #3 ...

3) The Jets aren't going DL with the first pick even if Williams drops in our lap. In this scenario we entertain trades to fall back a bit but we're not taking Williams just because he's thought to be a consensus top 3 talent. There are a lot of fans that care more about winning the draft, but Macc and Bowles care more about winning on Sundays. To do that we need to address obvious deficiencies, not pick up a player at a position that's already an area of strength, just so we can get giddy when Mel Kiper talks about the tremendous "value" we got when player X dropped.

4) Neither Gurley or DGB will be available at #3 7. Teams aren't concerned about ACL's like in year's past. The success of Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin will make teams want to get their own version of that in Green-Beckham. That may push someone else to #3 7 that we didn't think would be there. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the OT's there, Flowers or Clemmings. I also think Perriman is shaping into a very interesting name to watch at that pick. With all that said, if we don't get Mariota this is the area where you would see us look at Petty.

5) We will draft a RB for the first time in years. Since Powell maybe? I think Abdullah (Nebraska) or Duke Johnson (Miami) are the two to keep an eye on in round 3. An interesting scenario starting to gain steam is the idea of Melvin Gordon dropping to our #3 7 pick. Gurley's stock seems to be skyrocketing and typically RB's start to go at bottom of round 1 or top of round 2. Would be interesting to follow if Gordon drops a bit.
 

hobson54

Transition Tagged
Jet Fanatics
i agree with all 5 of your "locks", although i personally think that #3 will be moot as he will be off the board when we pick at #6
 

jetfandreamer

Jets Groupie
Jet Fanatics
I dont think Tenn is taking MAriota also, they do like Metzenberger, but they are doing their due dilgence milking their position and seeing potential what they can get. ALTHOUGH Mariota most likely be gone in the number 2 spot from a trade
 

Pointdexter

Pro Bowl Alternate
Jet Fanatics
i agree with all 5 of your "locks", although i personally think that #3 will be moot as he will be off the board when we pick at #6

Agreed. I just put that in there because there were a lot of people on here that feel if Williams were to drop he would be in play at 6. I think that is highly unlikely, bordering on impossible.
 

OCCH

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
Agreed. I just put that in there because there were a lot of people on here that feel if Williams were to drop he would be in play at 6. I think that is highly unlikely, bordering on impossible.

If Williams is there at 6, there are two scenarios going on in the Jets draft room (not including potential trades):

1) "I can't believe this guy is still on the board. He's going to be a monster for some team, but doesn't fit our scheme so let's grab an OLB and hope we strike gold"

2) "I can't believe this guy is still on the board. He doesn't fit our scheme, but we can't pass up this level of talent, so we'll make the scheme fit him".

You seem to think the second option is impossible -- personally I don't.

I don't want Bowles to do anything that forces him to "put square pegs in round holes". But if he's truly a defensive mastermind there's at least the CHANCE he envisions an elite defense that has Williams at the core of it.

As already said, it's irrelevant since he won't be there. But if we DID select him, I'd be excited to see what the plan was (as opposed to disappointed that they blew the pick) . . .
 

BlindsideD'Brick

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics
If Williams is there at 6, there are two scenarios going on in the Jets draft room (not including potential trades):

1) "I can't believe this guy is still on the board. He's going to be a monster for some team, but doesn't fit our scheme so let's grab an OLB and hope we strike gold"

2) "I can't believe this guy is still on the board. He doesn't fit our scheme, but we can't pass up this level of talent, so we'll make the scheme fit him".

You seem to think the second option is impossible -- personally I don't.

I don't want Bowles to do anything that forces him to "put square pegs in round holes". But if he's truly a defensive mastermind there's at least the CHANCE he envisions an elite defense that has Williams at the core of it.

As already said, it's irrelevant since he won't be there. But if we DID select him, I'd be excited to see what the plan was (as opposed to disappointed that they blew the pick) . . .

I'd rather take Fowler or Cooper, as I don't feel Williams is a "need pick".

But value-wise, yes, Williams would be a steal at 6. As others have noted, I don't see that as a realistic possibility, though. Williams will be gone in the top 5. Probably top 3.
 

OCCH

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
I'd rather take Fowler or Cooper, as I don't feel Williams is a "need pick".

But value-wise, yes, Williams would be a steal at 6. As others have noted, I don't see that as a realistic possibility, though. Williams will be gone in the top 5. Probably top 3.

Honest question (as I am MUCH more a fan of the game than a student of it):

If a 4-3 coach had EXACTLY the same talent we currently do, would he choose Williams? And if so, would it be to replace talent currently on the roster, or to enhance what's already there?

Some coaches look for talent that fits their scheme, and others run a scheme that maximizes whatever talent is on the roster. Personally I have greater respect for the latter and hope Bowles fits in that category, which is why I"m open to the idea of him grabbing a superior talent (if that's how he views Williams) and finding a way to utilize him.

I know I'm talking out of my butt, but it seems to make sense as it's coming out . . .
 
F

flgreen

Guest
I printed it out, took it to the bank, and asked for some money.

They called the cops.
 

BlindsideD'Brick

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics
Honest question (as I am MUCH more a fan of the game than a student of it):

If a 4-3 coach had EXACTLY the same talent we currently do, would he choose Williams? And if so, would it be to replace talent currently on the roster, or to enhance what's already there?

Some coaches look for talent that fits their scheme, and others run a scheme that maximizes whatever talent is on the roster. Personally I have greater respect for the latter and hope Bowles fits in that category, which is why I"m open to the idea of him grabbing a superior talent (if that's how he views Williams) and finding a way to utilize him.

I know I'm talking out of my butt, but it seems to make sense as it's coming out . . .

I'm not certain about the scheme, but Cromartie said the other day that Bowles ran a very similar defense to what Rex ran. I think Bowles blitzes more, but operates out of a base 3-4.

If you're going base 4-3, then yeah, Williams would be more of a need pick. But wouldn't Wilkerson, Richardson, Snacks, and Coples fit the scheme?
 

OCCH

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
I'm not certain about the scheme, but Cromartie said the other day that Bowles ran a very similar defense to what Rex ran. I think Bowles blitzes more, but operates out of a base 3-4.

If you're going base 4-3, then yeah, Williams would be more of a need pick. But wouldn't Wilkerson, Richardson, Snacks, and Coples fit the scheme?

I just remember reading Ham's rationale for the pick and it seemed to make sense . . .
 

Superman55

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics
Take it to the bank:

1) We will be selecting a QB somewhere in the 7 round draft. Any mock done without us taking a signal caller is incomplete. I think Macc is too smart to allow another year to go by without starting to develop someone, who will need a couple years to get comfortable. Waiting one more year to draft someone only puts us one more year behind schedule to being ready to compete with a franchise guy. We're not waiting for that. And the idea that a good QB comes available in FA is fiction; it doesn't happen. I think right now it's even money between Mariota, Petty, Hundley, and Grayson. I think we have our eye on all four of those guys. This brings me to #2 ...

2) Tennessee is not taking Mariota at #2 . I don't buy what we heard yesterday, about Mariota being a day 1 starter if he's there at 2, for a second. One of the more obvious bluffs I've heard in recent years. Tenn wants to see if anyone get antsy and trades up for Mariota because they would love the extra picks. This tells me two things: not only do they not love Mariota over what's already on the roster, but it also tells me that they feel Leonard Williams isn't a talent that's too good to pass on. Brings me to #3 ...

3) The Jets aren't going DL with the first pick even if Williams drops in our lap. In this scenario we entertain trades to fall back a bit but we're not taking Williams just because he's thought to be a consensus top 3 talent. There are a lot of fans that care more about winning the draft, but Macc and Bowles care more about winning on Sundays. To do that we need to address obvious deficiencies, not pick up a player at a position that's already an area of strength, just so we can get giddy when Mel Kiper talks about the tremendous "value" we got when player X dropped.

4) Neither Gurley or DGB will be available at #3 7. Teams aren't concerned about ACL's like in year's past. The success of Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin will make teams want to get their own version of that in Green-Beckham. That may push someone else to #3 7 that we didn't think would be there. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the OT's there, Flowers or Clemmings. I also think Perriman is shaping into a very interesting name to watch at that pick. With all that said, if we don't get Mariota this is the area where you would see us look at Petty.

5) We will draft a RB for the first time in years. Since Powell maybe? I think Abdullah (Nebraska) or Duke Johnson (Miami) are the two to keep an eye on in round 3. An interesting scenario starting to gain steam is the idea of Melvin Gordon dropping to our #3 7 pick. Gurley's stock seems to be skyrocketing and typically RB's start to go at bottom of round 1 or top of round 2. Would be interesting to follow if Gordon drops a bit.

Good list.

bankyou.jpg
 
J

Jet Setter

Guest
Honest question (as I am MUCH more a fan of the game than a student of it):

If a 4-3 coach had EXACTLY the same talent we currently do, would he choose Williams? And if so, would it be to replace talent currently on the roster, or to enhance what's already there?

Some coaches look for talent that fits their scheme, and others run a scheme that maximizes whatever talent is on the roster. Personally I have greater respect for the latter and hope Bowles fits in that category, which is why I"m open to the idea of him grabbing a superior talent (if that's how he views Williams) and finding a way to utilize him.

I know I'm talking out of my butt, but it seems to make sense as it's coming out . . .

I'd say no. Keep in mind we also have Coples (who would be miscast in a 4-3 OLB position and frankly, ideal in a 4-3 DE spot) which would give you a front line of Coples and Wilk on either end with Snacks and Richardson in the interior. It's already a bit over-inflated as you don't have any true pass rushers and with Wilk at one end, could he seal the edge in the rush defense? You don't see many 315 pound DE's for a reason. Teams might run wild on the outside and not even try to run up the middle.

Even in a 3-4, there's no room for another DT. One would have to sit and probably go. This doesn't improve the team. Just my two cents.
 
J

Jet Setter

Guest
Nice thread topic, Dexter. You merged a bunch of relevant previous threads into this one. Well done.
 
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