The New England Patriots come in trying to add to a dynasty, another roster that looked flawed early in the year patching together its holes and riding Tom Brady and its schematic advantages to an eighth Super Bowl appearance under Bill Belichick. The Philadelphia Eagles arrive in their first Super Bowl with this coaching staff and first since the last time these teams squared off in 2005. They were the best team for most of the year, and then Carson Wentz went down, and they've found a way to win regardless.
Here's what each team will need to do in order to come out as champions:
The Eagles will win if...
... the front four, specifically Fletcher Cox, takes this game over. It's no secret that beating Tom Brady means getting to him and knocking him around, which starts with good coverage and a pass rush that can finish, all elements that are easier said than done against his lightning release and pre-snap advantages. Some teams, like the 2015 Broncos, let their coverage create their rush on him. Others, like the 2007 Giants, used a dominant quick rush from four men to harass him. The Eagles will be much closer to the latter. Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry and first-round rookie Derek Barnett help make up the best front in the NFL, and though they only have average pressure ratings this year, that's mostly because they rarely blitz and excel the most in squeezing the run. That's where three-time Pro Bowler Cox comes in handy this game. His ability at a lean 6 feet 4 inches and and 310 pounds to negate Patriots runs to force passing downs that take longer will help everyone. A dominant performance against an undersized guard in Joe Thuney could wreck a lot of New England's game plan, providing the kind of quick push near the football that Brady can't scheme around as well. Given the quarterback matchup in play, this group is going to have to look like those 2007 Giants to have a good chance in this one. And they might.
The Patriots will win if...
...they force Nick Foles to do Carson Wentz things. The backup Eagles quarterback has lived two lives this season alone, from the trainwreck who couldn't create in December to the 352-yard, 3-touchdown shredding of the Vikings' top-notch defense in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia seem more likely to game plan for the one they've seen most often, which means forcing check downs to less creative players and the erraticism that comes through trying to do more. That'll come through New England's top strength on defense, a diverse secondary led by cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore and safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung. The Patriots will ask them to lock up receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith and tight end Zach Ertz in order to force the progressions that make Foles create. The Eagles looked like the best team in football back when they could work out of anything through Wentz creating late in the down and breaking a well-schemed defense. If the Patriots force those same MVP-like qualities to have to come from the backup, they'll win this game.
Matchup to watch: Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery vs. Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore
The old adage with Bill Belichick is that he's going to take away a team's best offensive playmaker and make it beat him in a way that's a little less natural. In theory, that'd be a good way to get to a backup quarterback like Nick Foles, by forcing adjustments out of the two-week script. Alshon Jeffery is the best skill player he'll be working with, a 6-foot-3-inch, 217-pound force who can make catches in the tightest of coverage. He had 789 yards and nine touchdowns in his first season in Philadelphia, and he'll square up in this one with Stephon Gilmore, the cornerback the Patriots snagged from the Bills for a hefty paycheck last spring and who helped key the AFC Championship Game win with one most remarkable adjustment to a ball downfield. Jeffery doesn't separate all that well, especially against someone like Gilmore, and the Eagles know that, so the battles for the football in tight air between those two should be telling. So, too, should the resources New England deploys to take Jeffery away because he can beat double coverage, and the argument could be made that Philadelphia excels having its left tackle be the best offensive player it has as it lives more through balance than the old formula that Belichick loves to try to beat.
Best MVP candidates
Tom Brady is the easy favorite at 4/5, given that he's won four of these and remains the best player on either team, and if it ends in another game-winning drive for the Patriots, he almost certainly will take it. But he's also going up against the No. 5 defense by Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average efficiency metric, and sometimes MVP awards get weird. Cox at 40/1, tied for 10th-best odds, is incredibly intriguing for the reasons listed above. Behind Foles, he should be the favorite if you're picking an Eagles upset. But if we're to pick someone not named Brady to win this, the best candidate will be Rob Gronkowski, who is cleared from concussion protocol and checks in with the third-best odds at 17/2. The Eagles handle all positions well on defense, and they'll likely assign Malcolm Jenkins to Gronk. Like most teams, they don't have the matchup elements to handle Gronk one-on-one in the open field. When Brady is under duress from the Eagles' front, he'll throw it up for Gronk, and expect at least one catch and run that helps turn the game in a different direction.
Enjoy the game and rooting for the Eagles to smack Brady into retirement...
