Quarterback Choices - by the Numbers

[NewMFS62]

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/p...ns-to-mayfield

First-down passing

If a quarterback can't dominate on first down, he's got problems. He usually faces base personnel and fairly vanilla coverages, so the numbers should be large and impressive. How the quarterbacks fared on first down:

NFL	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
McCown	88/133	66.2	962	8	2	101.1
Cousins	109/160	68.1	1,262	6	3	96.4
Bridgewater	94/132	71.2	935	2	3	86.5
College	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Mayfield	121/166	72.9	1,945	20	0	151.2
Allen	56/90	62.2	723	9	2	111.5
Rosen	141/213	66.2	1,942	15	4	110.9
Darnold	116/178	65.2	1,495	10	5	98.4

Third-down passing

This is the money down. It's also when defenses get creative and unleash exotic blitz packages, testing the quarterback's ability to diagnose quickly and react. How the quarterbacks fared on third down:

NFL	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
McCown	86/124	69.4	1,044	6	3	101.0
Bridgewater	88/132	66.7	1,043	7	3	98.8
Cousins	91/159	57.2	1,102	10	5	86.5
College	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Darnold	64/109	58.7	832	6	2	93.5
Mayfield	49/79	62.0	645	4	3	88.8
Rosen	53/102	52.0	715	4	3	75.4
Allen	46/83	55.4	469	3	2	73.8

Fourth-quarter/OT passing

A quarterback needs the clutch gene. If he can't deliver in the crucible of the fourth quarter, his team never will win a championship. How the quarterbacks fared in the fourth quarter/OT:

NFL	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Bridgewater	73/110	66.4	820	3	2	90.0
Cousins	93/145	64.1	1,053	8	5	89.8
McCown	74/113	65.5	813	4	4	83.7
College	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Mayfield	41/63	65.1	566	6	2	112.3
Rosen	77/119	64.7	991	10	3	108.2
Darnold	63/106	59.4	913	4	1	96.1
Allen	25/49	51.0	309	2	4	50.5

Passing under pressure

Most quarterbacks look good when they have time to throw, but how do they fare when they're about to get blasted in the chest by a 300-pound lineman? The good ones stay cool and keep their eyes downfield. The others panic. How the quarterbacks fared under pressure:

NFL	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Cousins	63/130	48.5	871	7	6	69.1
Bridgewater	61/132	46.2	731	6	4	66.2
McCown	39/85	45.9	481	3	4	56.1
College	Comp/Att	Pct.	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Mayfield	51/96	53.1	797	9	3	99.2
Darnold	57/113	50.1	1,138	6	4	89.0
Rosen	49/104	47.1	635	2	2	65.2
Allen	34/97	35.1	468	7	5	54.0

Conclusion: Based on this data, Mayfield is the clear winner among the draft prospects, as he led three of the four categories. Perhaps the biggest eye-opener: Allen really struggled in high-leverage situations -- third down, fourth quarter and under pressure. As for the pros, Cousins -- on the verge of a historic contract from someone -- led only one category, but he was the most consistent passer across the board.


Very enlightening.
Later

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

Unless you play the exact same teams how can you compare stats like this?? I'm not saying they don't have value. Playing Big 12 defenses that aren't much better than HS defenses is a lot different than playing NFL defenses with little to no talent around them.

 

[LIJETFAN]

Excellent point Tebow. Mayfield is accurate, but he was often throwing to wide open receivers. Now, to be fair - when he played against better defenses he still played well. When you look McCown's numbers you realize what a solid season he had last year. He struggled under pressure. Looks like Rosen and Allen both have their struggles on pressure.

I realize Cousins will cost a fortune, but honestly, having a bona fide NFL caliber starter under center is something we haven't seen since Sanchez's second season. And before that Chad Pennington. So it's been a long time. In my opinion, if the Jets sign Cousins, they should sign McCown too to back him up, and keep Hackenberg on the bench as the #3. There you go.

If they don't sign Cousins - I don't know what the plan is. I like Darnold and Allen personally for different reasons. Darnold for his leadership skills and creativity. He knows how to throw receivers open. And Allen because well, his physical abilities are amazing, and he seems like a good kid. He has the most upside.

Mayfield can play, he's just acted like a jerk and very immature. I have a problem with that. Rosen is perhaps the most interesting player. He's the best pure passer in this class. He's very intelligent by all accounts. He could turn out to be the best QB in this class, if he stays healthy, and doesn't turn off his teammates.

Another guy that I am warming up to is Mason Rudolph. He doesn't have the strongest arm in the class, but it's good enough. He has great size and is pretty accurate (throwing to wide open receivers granted). He also seems pretty bright. He's a one read QB, but is pretty good at escaping pressure, and can make accurate throws into tight windows.

 

[cheaterhater]

Tebow might be right that you can't compare that way, but how you play when the game is on the line is how you play when the game is on the line. Very interesting. Cousins, while not outstanding, was still most consistent. very interesting

 

[NewMFS62]

Another guy that I am warming up to is Mason Rudolph. He doesn't have the strongest arm in the class, but it's good enough. He has great size and is pretty accurate (throwing to wide open receivers granted). He also seems pretty bright. He's a one read QB, but is pretty good at escaping pressure, and can make accurate throws into tight windows.

Another thing in his favor is his college offense had him playing from under center a lot. Correcting/ coaching footwork (a la Hackenberg) would not be an a major issue. Until his team fell apart in mid year, Rudolph was being mentioned in the same discussions as the "big 4". If the Jets sign McGown, he would be a nice pick in a trade down, mid first round, scenario while they use the extra pick(s) to strengthen other need areas (esp. O-Line).
Later

 

[LIJETFAN]

He might even be there in the second, though I tend to think late first.