Great article on the vagaries of drafting a QB, and why teams get it wrong so often

[ReallyBigfan]

I thought this was a great and super-intelligent read. One of the takeaways for me, and I acknowledge that it may be in part because of my personal bias, is that it solidifies the case for Baker Mayfield to become the best pro QB of the group. Two reasons:

• The article states that statistically, the two best predictors of success for a college QB in the pros are Completion % and number of games played; Mayfield obviously aces both of those
• It is kind of remarkable that Mayfield was the most accurate by a pretty significant margin in every level of passing, i.e. short, intermediate, and deep. It also puts the lie to the claim made by some (lookin' at you Tebow :1 that his completion % was high because he mostly threw short passes; a lower % of his throws were short (4 yards from scrimmage or less) than Darnold or Rosen. And as I already mentioned, his completion % on deeper throws was the highest by a wide margin.

Baker Mayfield is our guy, the FQB we've been waiting for for so many years.

 

[TonyFtLaud]

I thought this was a great and super-intelligent read. One of the takeaways for me, and I acknowledge that it may be in part because of my personal bias, is that it solidifies the case for Baker Mayfield to become the best pro QB of the group. Two reasons:

• The article states that statistically, the two best predictors of success for a college QB in the pros are Completion % and number of games played; Mayfield obviously aces both of those
• It is kind of remarkable that Mayfield was the most accurate by a pretty significant margin in every level of passing, i.e. short, intermediate, and deep. It also puts the lie to the claim made by some (lookin' at you Tebow :1 that his completion % was high because he mostly threw short passes; a lower % of his throws were short (4 yards from scrimmage or less) than Darnold or Rosen. And as I already mentioned, his completion % on deeper throws was the highest by a wide margin.

Baker Mayfield is our guy, the FQB we've been waiting for for so many years.

So Luke Faulk and Mason Ruldoph should be ranked second and third in this class then ?

 

[NewMFS62]

The reason Tebow's long pass completion percentage was so high was that defensive backs went into shock that his rag-arm could throw the ball that far.
That's not the case with Mayfield.
Later

 

[ReallyBigfan]

So Luke Faulk and Mason Ruldoph should be ranked second and third in this class then ?

No, I don't think that is the conclusion to be drawn by anyone who reads the entire article. Though I do think that Mason Rudolph will be quite good.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

Small hands, short guy, spread offense in college.

Someone please work a little harder at convincing me that Baker Mayfield is going to be a franchise QB.

And don’t cite Brees and Wilson. Those are exceptions to the rule, who work their tails off and make up for their height by excelling in every other aspect. Including running a pro style offense.

 

[ReallyBigfan]

Small hands, short guy, spread offense in college.

Someone please work a little harder at convincing me that Baker Mayfield is going to be a franchise QB.

And don’t cite Brees and Wilson. Those are exceptions to the rule, who work their tails off and make up for their height by excelling in every other aspect. Including running a pro style offense.

I don't feel any need to convince you of anything, you are entitled to think whatever you want about Baker Mayfield. But the small hands myth was debunked at the combine when his hands were measured at 9 1/2 which is fine. Sam Darnold's hands are smaller - 9 3/8. Mayfield is also not sub-6 ft as some were claiming, he measured just a little below 6'1".

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

I don't feel any need to convince you of anything, you are entitled to think whatever you want about Baker Mayfield. But the small hands myth was debunked at the combine when his hands were measured at 9 1/2 which is fine. Sam Darnold's hands are smaller - 9 3/8. Mayfield is also not sub-6 ft as some were claiming, he measured just a little below 6'1".

OK, Mayfield is off the hook for hand size.

But he’s still 3” shorter than Darnold and nowhere near the pro style system QB Darnold is.

 

[ReallyBigfan]

OK, Mayfield is off the hook for hand size.

But he’s still 3” shorter than Darnold and nowhere near the pro style system QB Darnold is.

The game has changed, man. More and more coaches and OC's are recognizing that when you have a unique talent, you have to adapt your systems to take advantage of that talent, so "pro style system" is almost meaningless. Having watched a ton of Baker Mayfield in college I am convinced that he would flourish in any system, but I also think that the team that drafts him will put things in place to take advantage of his unique skill set, and reap huge dividends as a result. I hope it is the Jets.

I have mixed feelings about Darnold. There is unquestionably a lot to like about him, but his elongated motion seems to me a bigger potential problem in the pros than Baker Mayfield's height, and there is the ball security issue and other things. Then there is the whole USC QB thing, where practically zero USC QBs have gone on to stardom in the NFL. Carson Palmer. Can you name another, despite many of them being highly touted? If Darnold were to drop to us, I'm sure many of us would fear a repeat of the last time the Jets traded up and drafted a QB from USC... although to be fair, Darnold has far more pure ability than Sanchez did.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

The game has changed, man. More and more coaches and OC's are recognizing that when you have a unique talent, you have to adapt your systems to take advantage of that talent, so "pro style system" is almost meaningless. Having watched a ton of Baker Mayfield in college I am convinced that he would flourish in any system, but I also think that the team that drafts him will put things in place to take advantage of his unique skill set, and reap huge dividends as a result. I hope it is the Jets.

I have mixed feelings about Darnold. There is unquestionably a lot to like about him, but his elongated motion seems to me a bigger potential problem in the pros than Baker Mayfield's height, and there is the ball security issue and other things. Then there is the whole USC QB thing, where practically zero USC QBs have gone on to stardom in the NFL. Carson Palmer. Can you name another, despite many of them being highly touted? If Darnold were to drop to us, I'm sure many of us would fear a repeat of the last time the Jets traded up and drafted a QB from USC... although to be fair, Darnold has far more pure ability than Sanchez did.

It’s a lot quicker to draft a player who fits your system than it is to draft one player to build an entire offense around. If the plan is to draft Mayfield, and then attempt to put players around him who fit his skill set, we could be rebuilding for 3-4 more years. I don’t think the Jets have the patience for that. Certainly Macc and Bowles won’t be here long enough to see that come to fruition.

When I watch the college games, I see some things from these spread offense teams that are just laughable. Four wide receivers going deep, terrible coverage on the opposing defense, receivers wide open for big plays. These things don’t happen in the NFL. And that’s why spread offense systems aren’t realistic samples of what QB’s will do against much more complicated defensive schemes in the NFL. Can Mayfield operate from under center? Will he be able to see above bigger o-linemen in the NFL? Or is he another shotgun QB running around just waiting for someone to get open? I have a lot of questions about him. Too many.

Your point about USC QB’s is a good one. I believe part of that problem has to do with the supporting cast. They put so many talented players around them that it can hide the deficiencies of their QB’s. Darnold turned the ball over a lot, but USC won a lot and that overshadowed his fumbles/INT’s.

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

All these QB's have issues and more than likely only one is going to be a franchise QB.

Mayfield: Attitude, height, spread system QB. I will say he was highly accurate in that system, but a Brick said guys were wide open almost every play. He probably hasn't played more than 5 snaps under center in his life either because of the system or his height. He made some plays in college with his feet, but because he isn't a great athlete those plays might be shut down in the NFL. He won't have the difference in talent around him with the Jets that he had in college. He had future NFL players vs. boys and grocery baggers. He played in a very bad conference for defense in college. The reason I bring up these points is because I believe many of his numbers are bloated and won't transfer to the NFL. USC doesn't have the best track record for QB's, but neither does OU. I can get past him being a douche and me not liking him, but NYC is not the place for people with his attitude. At OU, he had a chip on his shoulder because people doubted him, but that was in Norman, OK not New York City. We've all seen what he does in response to those doubters. 4 TD's games, but with lots of crotch grabs, flag planting and throwing balls at opponents. He comes with the highest risk, but not the most upside. We also spent 4 years trying to get rid of the circus. Just think if Rex was coach and Mayfield was the pick.

Darnold: Fumbles, throwing motion. The USC thing might be a real thing, but I wouldn't pass on Darnold because of Sanchez or because he is from USC. He has the size and arm strength plus he makes plays with his legs. Seems like a down to earth kid.

Rosen: Attitude, injuries. He seems brittle to me. He seems arrogant to me.

Allen: Accuracy. He has the strongest arm by far. He has all the physical tools. He doesn't have a lot of production. Because I'm a Jet fan, he could be Hack 2.0.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

I think too much is being made of Rosen’s “attitude”. He’s labeled arrogant because he’s opinionated. The two words shouldn’t be synonymous. I’ve heard him speak and I’ve read the interviews. I don’t agree with him on some things, but that doesn’t mean he’s arrogant. He’s an intelligent person who wants to know “why”. Some people would call that an attribute.

Regarding injuries, I’ll bet there are at least a few undiagnosed concussions among the big 4-5 QB’s in this draft. And are Rosen’s injuries because he’s brittle, or because his o-line couldn’t keep him upright? I don’t know the answer to that one, but both could have a little truth to them.

In case anyone’s wondering, I am NOT related to Josh Rosen.

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

I think too much is being made of Rosen’s “attitude”. He’s labeled arrogant because he’s opinionated. The two words shouldn’t be synonymous. I’ve heard him speak and I’ve read the interviews. I don’t agree with him on some things, but that doesn’t mean he’s arrogant. He’s an intelligent person who wants to know “why”. Some people would call that an attribute.

Regarding injuries, I’ll bet there are at least a few undiagnosed concussions among the big 4-5 QB’s in this draft. And are Rosen’s injuries because he’s brittle, or because his o-line couldn’t keep him upright? I don’t know the answer to that one, but both could have a little truth to them.

In case anyone’s wondering, I am NOT related to Josh Rosen.

That all could be true, but I get tired of people saying he is intelligent and wants to know why. Like I tell the millenial kids that I coach, because I fucking said so. Too many of these kids are just allowed to ask why. Thats not how I grew up. Thats not how I was coached. You did what the coach or adult said. Darnold and Allen both seem to have the least coachability issues. And these days that is a big deal. If Darnold and Rosen available its not even a second thought. DARNOLD.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

That all could be true, but I get tired of people saying he is intelligent and wants to know why. Like I tell the millenial kids that I coach, because I fucking said so. Too many of these kids are just allowed to ask why. Thats not how I grew up. Thats not how I was coached. You did what the coach or adult said. Darnold and Allen both seem to have the least coachability issues. And these days that is a big deal. If Darnold and Rosen available its not even a second thought. DARNOLD.

I think it depends. I agree that someone who’s always questioning everything is annoying, but if you’re asking questions to get a better understanding of why you’re doing something, that makes some people better. If they know the “why“, they produce at a higher level.

And I believe that’s Rosen’s intention. I don’t think he’s intentionally trying to be a jerk.

 

[Xmarco]

Rosen is the final answer

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Small hands, short guy, spread offense in college.

Someone please work a little harder at convincing me that Baker Mayfield is going to be a franchise QB.

And don’t cite Brees and Wilson. Those are exceptions to the rule, who work their tails off and make up for their height by excelling in every other aspect. Including running a pro style offense.

IMO he is neither Brees nor Wilson, though there are 'some' obvious similarities.

But if I had to pick a QB Mayfield most reminds me of, it would be a young Brett Favre, a true Gunslinger, ridiculously accurate (downfield too), passion is contagious, and plays like his hair is on fire, like every down may be his last, the kind of guy who would cut off a finger if it meant winning ... and his team-mates feed off his maniacal passion, by all accounts he was beloved by his team-mates who never believed they were out of a game, because they had Mayfield.

Also I would remind people, Mayfield is 6' 1", not 5' 9", and Favre was 6' 2" ... we're taking one inch here, and Favre is a first ballot HOFer

Lastly, we missed out on Favre by one pick ... ONE PICK ... got leaped by Atlanta in a trade in RD 2, and by all accounts Ron Wolfe (at the time with the Jets) loved Favre so much he would have taken him #1 Overall if we had the #1 Pick that year, but we didn't even have a first rounder, lost it in the supplemental draft when we took Rob Moore, but when Wolfe went to GM Green Bay, one of his first moves was to trade with Atlanta for Brett Favre, typical Jets luck.

 

[TonyFtLaud]

No, I don't think that is the conclusion to be drawn by anyone who reads the entire article. Though I do think that Mason Rudolph will be quite good.

I was going by your summary. The link kept taking me to ESPNs homepage.

 

[ReallyBigfan]

That all could be true, but I get tired of people saying he is intelligent and wants to know why. Like I tell the millenial kids that I coach, because I fucking said so. Too many of these kids are just allowed to ask why. Thats not how I grew up. Thats not how I was coached. You did what the coach or adult said. Darnold and Allen both seem to have the least coachability issues. And these days that is a big deal. If Darnold and Rosen available its not even a second thought. DARNOLD.

So, Rosen is probably my 3rd choice among these QBs, but mainly due to the injury and mobility concerns. And I have to admit, in one of the interviews I saw he gave a really great answer on the "always asking why" issue. I'm probably not going to do this justice, but essentially he said that when he comes to the line of scrimmage he is always focused on making the right decisions, and for him to do that it is not enough to just know what he is supposed to do, but why, and why the play is designed exactly as it is, etc. When he understands the whys, he can know when the situation might warrant an audible at the line, or any other change that is appropriate. In other words, he doesn't ask why to be a jerk, he does it to help him be the best QB he can be with every play. It made a great deal of sense the way he explained it.

 

[ReallyBigfan]

And btw, Mayfield is not just an accurate QB, he is extraordinarily so. He had the highest completion % in every level, and on passes that traveled more than 21 yard in the air, he was at 53%, highest among all QBs in the Power Five conferences. Can you imagine completing more than half of your deep passes? His completion % on passes thrown while on the move was a remarkable 67%.

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

And btw, Mayfield is not just an accurate QB, he is extraordinarily so. He had the highest completion % in every level, and on passes that traveled more than 21 yard in the air, he was at 53%, highest among all QBs in the Power Five conferences. Can you imagine completing more than half of your deep passes? His completion % on passes thrown while on the move was a remarkable 67%.

I think its hard for some people to comprehend how ridiculous this is. If he falls to 3 and we take him, I'll be thanking God.

2 inches taller and he's the #1 Overall Pick, and its not even a debate.

 

[NYJETSDAN16]

And btw, Mayfield is not just an accurate QB, he is extraordinarily so. He had the highest completion % in every level, and on passes that traveled more than 21 yard in the air, he was at 53%, highest among all QBs in the Power Five conferences. Can you imagine completing more than half of your deep passes? His completion % on passes thrown while on the move was a remarkable 67%.

excellent