With all the talk about Mariota falling and Chip really wanting him, while at the same time not being “sold” on Foles as his QB, I thought it was pertinent for us to really look at Foles and some comparable players.
Foles has been questioned after “regressing” in his second year as a starter after having an obscene 27 td and 2 int season. Obvioulsy that td-int% over a regular season is a statistical outlier, but to be fair, he also completed 69% with 2 tds and no picks in their playoff loss. He ‘regressed” to 13 tds and 10 picks over 8 games this past year (completing 59%). One side note, the eagles lost Bill Lazor, admittedly an excellent QB coach, and replaced him with Bill Musgrave, which was a huge downgrade. Now, 59%-13-10 isnt great, but below are 3 very good NFL QBs who also regressed early on in their career:
After sitting his first year, and having a solid second year (17tds and 16ints) Drew Brees followed that up in his 3rd year with 11td and 15 picks.
After sitting for 2 years, in his first starting season Phillip Rivers went 22 tds and 9 picks but followed that up with a 21 td 15 int season before he started putting it together the following season.
Lastly, Ben Rothlisberger was considered an immediate success, however it certainly wasn’t because of his individual stats, but rather his team was successful, winning a SB in his second season with him having a solid playoffs, but a 123 yard 0td 2 int SB. His next season the team missed the playoffs and he threw for 18tds with 23 ints – in his 3rd full year starting.
That is a pretty solid list of guys who “regressed” early in their careers. Most importantly you have to look at characteristics these guys all have in common, that Foles happens to also share. NFL Arm strength, size (except for brees) and hand size (brees has large hands for his height), are all extremely important qualities for a good NFL QB. Andy Dalton seems fine when you look at his record, but if you cant throw outside the hash marks or make a defense think you can throw deep, then it is simply too difficult to beat a good defense in the playoffs, which is why he has struggled so much, and thats with a top 5 WR at his disposal. Foles can throw deep and outside the hash marks, is tall, and has huge hands, all of which are important starting points for success in the league especially when added to the fact that over 22 games he has shown an ability to protect the football, while also playing some games in cold weather.
On the flip side, I can see the argument about not wanting someone that Chip Kelly doesn’t want – but 2 things there. First off, Roseman is a horrendous GM, and if he doesn’t like Foles, that’s a positive in my mind. Secondly, I believe chip wants someone with a threat to run in his offense and foles cannot run at all. That's why its more an issue of foles not being a fit rather than indicative of foles ability to play in general, just his ability to play in that offense. I understand that its not necessarily a positive that his team wants to trade him, but I don’t know what the knocks against him as a player truly are? Did he benefit from Chips offensive mind and first year in the NFL with that offense – absolutely. But did he have great WRs or a great TE – absolutely NOT? He had an exceptional RB, but everything he accomplished was with riley cooper and Jason avant at WR (borderline terrible players) and showed an ability to actually win while also not turning the ball over.
The fan in me wants a player like mariota – hes exciting, has HUGE upside, and could turn out to be a true dual Threat QB who can run but also operate in the pocket, he would excite the fan base and seems like an awesome kid to root for. I also think he would be an excellent fit with chan gailey, but we would need to tailor the offense to him, otherwise we are just the 180 degree opposite of chip/foles with a pro-style OC and mariota not being a fit. However, the analytical side of wanting to win regardless of the flash mariota has, sees the opportunity to acquire a player who has NFL measurables, has proven they can win and protect the football over a 20+ game NFL sample size, and also allow us to potentially acquire enough additional draft picks to still build a team around him. Foles isn’t aaron rogers, nor do I think that is even a possible outcome, but I think he is certainly as good as joe flacco, and with the possibility that he could be as good as rothlisberger or rivers, I make that deal.
