Will Darnold finally hit 3,000 yds and 20 TDs?

[TonyFtLaud]

Today is a prime example. Lots of bad throws and failure to convert on a ton of third down opportunities. And let's not forget that our first team, with Darnold, was playing the game against the Bills second and thirds. I would uave expected Darnold to have put up three or four TDs. But that's not what we got. I still don't see the allure of Sam Darnold.

Perfect example.
Had his second pick called off because of a penalty away from the ball, had several more passes that would have been picked if not vs 4th string corners. (Bills starters were out,3rd string injure on Darnold's first pick).
Constantly leaving points on the board. You can get away with it vs lesser teams ,but not against better competition. Easy to see but not on a stat sheet.
I do get the allure of Darnold. He makes some beautiful throws and flashes potential. But he has too many bad throws and his ball placement is spotty at best. I see balls thrown high,low, behind recievers and late. Rarely do I see players led open,or hit in stride. That's what separates avg from elite.

 

[SackExchange]

It's actually the other way around. Stats without context are meaningless.
Watching the game gives you an accurate measure of a players performance.
If a QB has 4 picks in a game and 3 are off his recievers hands and a 4th came because a Reciever fell, the stats will tell you the QB was terrible.
Same as if a QB completes 25 passes within 3 yards of the LOS and his recievers make tons of YAC. The stats will show you a QB who appears elite, rather than a game manager.
Learn to trust your eyes.....

But there are issues with using the eye test, as well. Just today, twice Mahomes threw picks on plays where a flag was thrown on the defense, negating the picks. Now, how much of a factor was it that he thought he had a free play, and therefore took a chance he might not have taken if not for the flag?

Does that count against him, even though it wasn't in the stats? How much weight do we put on it?

For me, over the course of a full season, every QB is going to have interceptions negated by flags, or dropped by defenders. Every QB is going to throw a bad ball that a WR makes a great adjustment to catch, as well as a great throw that a WR drops. Those largely balance out over a larger sample size.

That is why I trust numbers more than myself.

 

[TonyFtLaud]

But there are issues with using the eye test, as well. Just today, twice Mahomes threw picks on plays where a flag was thrown on the defense, negating the picks. Now, how much of a factor was it that he thought he had a free play, and therefore took a chance he might not have taken if not for the flag?

Does that count against him, even though it wasn't in the stats? How much weight do we put on it?

For me, over the course of a full season, every QB is going to have interceptions negated by flags, or dropped by defenders. Every QB is going to throw a bad ball that a WR makes a great adjustment to catch, as well as a great throw that a WR drops. Those largely balance out over a larger sample size.

That is why I trust numbers more than myself.

It's unfortunate that you don't have more faith in yourself and what you see. It will always be the eye test for me . Mac relied on stats and the "experts" opinions, he won every off season, landed the best player every draft and our roster is bare at most positions.

 

[SackExchange]

It's unfortunate that you don't have more faith in yourself and what you see. It will always be the eye test for me . Mac relied on stats and the "experts" opinions, he won every off season, landed the best player every draft and our roster is bare at most positions.

It's just different philosophies about what we value.

I played OL in college, and have coached OL at the HS and prep school/postgrad level and done some play calling, and I do trust my eyes when it comes to evaluating blocking technique and footwork when it comes to that level. But I absolutely do not possess the credentials to do the same when it comes to NFL-caliber QBs.

 

[TonyFtLaud]

You should.

 

[SackExchange]

You should.

I wish I did possess those skills. .But I never played or coached the QB position. I would just be another underinformed fan offering my $0.02 from my armchair.

 

[TonyFtLaud]

I wish I did possess those skills. .But I never played or coached the QB position. I would just be another underinformed fan offering my $0.02 from my armchair.

Lol. So instead you , while admititly underinformed, chose to dispute other fans observations...
Based on opinions of sports writers who have never played period, let alone coached on the NCAA level.

 

[SackExchange]

Lol. So instead you , while admititly underinformed, chose to dispute other fans observations...
Based on opinions of sports writers who have never played period, let alone coached on the NCAA level.

Based on what sportswriters?

If you think I put much of any value into what sportswriters say, you have absolutely no idea who I am.

 

[SackExchange]

I am admittedly underinformed when it comes to evaluating QBs. I would assume most of the people on a board like this are similarly so. Last time I checked, I was unaware of anyone who played or coached the position at a high level, or worked in an NFL front office or recruiting for a college program.

 

[magicjohnson]

It's just different philosophies about what we value.

I played OL in college, and have coached OL at the HS and prep school/postgrad level and done some play calling, and I do trust my eyes when it comes to evaluating blocking technique and footwork when it comes to that level. But I absolutely do not possess the credentials to do the same when it comes to NFL-caliber QBs.

That's cool. I've always had a lot respect for anyone willing to play OL.

Same here, except for me it was QB in college and I later became a QB coach......although my playing time was mostly as a back up QB, wasn't tall enough to be taken seriously.....and this was way before Russell Wilson finally broke that glass ceiling.

I know I also don't possess any credentials to evaluate Darnold, but what I do know is I like his overall improvement from last year, his accuracy has improved and his arm strength. I would focus on his footwork, which is still pretty sloppy at times. He also needs work on pocket awareness and ball security techniques, audibles, among other things.

Behind a solid line I think Darnold can really be special....being ill didn't help his season either. Jets really need to Draft OL.

 

[jets82]

So Darnold didn't make the 20 TD mark but he did get 3,000 passing. If he can manage to stay healthy and play all 16 games, we can give him some true offensive linemen to protect him and some offensive weapons then maybe we can easily get 3,500 plus yards and 25 plus TDs out of him. Can't forget some real coaching, he may need that as well!!!