NFL trade deadline offers: proposal for players who could get dealt in 2020; Bill Barnwell Edition
Indianapolis Colts get: QB Sam Darnold
New York Jets get: 2021 second-round pick, 2022 third-round pick (conditional)
The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) thinks there's a 50% chance the Jets will be 0-8 on the morning of Nov. 3. FPI also thinks the Jets already have a 42% chance of finishing with the first overall pick in 2021 after their 0-5 start; three more losses would surely push their prospects of winning the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes well past the 50% mark. If the Jets have the top pick, as much as we can talk about how Darnold hasn't been given a fair shake in New York, there's little chance of the Jets picking up his fifth-year option and turning down their shot at Lawrence.
I'm not sure a Darnold trade is likely, but there's a logical suitor if it does happen. The Colts were the team that originally made it possible for the Jets to draft Darnold when they sent New York the third overall pick for the sixth selection and three second-round selections. Back then, Indy thought it was set at quarterback with Andrew Luck. Things have changed.
There are a few reasons to think a Darnold addition might be appealing for the Colts. Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett are both free agents after the season, leaving Jacob Eason as the only quarterback on the active roster under contract. Rivers has mostly been solid during his debut season with the Colts, posting a Total QBR of 59.4, but he also arguably cost them the game against the Browns on Sunday with two interceptions. Indianapolis has lost receivers to injury -- and drops have let down Rivers -- but there's no guarantee Rivers makes it through the season as the starter.
Trading for Darnold would give the Colts another option behind Rivers in 2020 and a young starter in 2021. They would have to decide whether they would want to pick up Darnold's option for 2022, which would be fully guaranteed this spring. My guess is that they would need to get creative, possibly by offering Darnold a contract that would give him a raise in 2021 while also providing them an out before 2022 if he fails to impress.
From Darnold's perspective, this would be a great landing spot. The Colts have an excellent offensive line, a stable offensive coaching staff and a solid-if-unspectacular group of receivers. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor has looked impressive so far, and Darnold likely wouldn't have to carry quite as much of the load as he has in New York. If young wideouts Parris Campbell or Michael Pittman Jr. emerge as a difference-maker, Darnold would be happy with his new surroundings.
Jets fans expecting to get a first-round pick for their struggling quarterback have to be realistic. Darnold hasn't put together a solid stretch of football for more than three weeks at a time. His worst games have been disasters. He has struggled to stay healthy, and his decision-making doesn't look much better now than it did when he entered the league. The Jets might not pick up his option regardless of whether they're in line to take Lawrence in the draft. No, it hasn't been fair, but what has happened over the past three years is a sunk cost. They don't know whether Darnold is their guy, and they're in too desperate of a position to wait and see.
Trading Darnold could be a win-win. The Jets would add a second-round selection and earn a conditional pick if, say, Darnold makes the Pro Bowl in 2021. In trading Darnold and turning the reins over to Joe Flacco and fourth-rounder James Morgan this season, they would be better positioned to follow through on that possible 0-8 start and come away with the first overall pick. The Colts could land on their quarterback of the future; and if Rivers struggles, they might even find their quarterback of the present.
Indianapolis Colts get: QB Sam Darnold
New York Jets get: 2021 second-round pick, 2022 third-round pick (conditional)
The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) thinks there's a 50% chance the Jets will be 0-8 on the morning of Nov. 3. FPI also thinks the Jets already have a 42% chance of finishing with the first overall pick in 2021 after their 0-5 start; three more losses would surely push their prospects of winning the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes well past the 50% mark. If the Jets have the top pick, as much as we can talk about how Darnold hasn't been given a fair shake in New York, there's little chance of the Jets picking up his fifth-year option and turning down their shot at Lawrence.
I'm not sure a Darnold trade is likely, but there's a logical suitor if it does happen. The Colts were the team that originally made it possible for the Jets to draft Darnold when they sent New York the third overall pick for the sixth selection and three second-round selections. Back then, Indy thought it was set at quarterback with Andrew Luck. Things have changed.
There are a few reasons to think a Darnold addition might be appealing for the Colts. Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett are both free agents after the season, leaving Jacob Eason as the only quarterback on the active roster under contract. Rivers has mostly been solid during his debut season with the Colts, posting a Total QBR of 59.4, but he also arguably cost them the game against the Browns on Sunday with two interceptions. Indianapolis has lost receivers to injury -- and drops have let down Rivers -- but there's no guarantee Rivers makes it through the season as the starter.
Trading for Darnold would give the Colts another option behind Rivers in 2020 and a young starter in 2021. They would have to decide whether they would want to pick up Darnold's option for 2022, which would be fully guaranteed this spring. My guess is that they would need to get creative, possibly by offering Darnold a contract that would give him a raise in 2021 while also providing them an out before 2022 if he fails to impress.
From Darnold's perspective, this would be a great landing spot. The Colts have an excellent offensive line, a stable offensive coaching staff and a solid-if-unspectacular group of receivers. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor has looked impressive so far, and Darnold likely wouldn't have to carry quite as much of the load as he has in New York. If young wideouts Parris Campbell or Michael Pittman Jr. emerge as a difference-maker, Darnold would be happy with his new surroundings.
Jets fans expecting to get a first-round pick for their struggling quarterback have to be realistic. Darnold hasn't put together a solid stretch of football for more than three weeks at a time. His worst games have been disasters. He has struggled to stay healthy, and his decision-making doesn't look much better now than it did when he entered the league. The Jets might not pick up his option regardless of whether they're in line to take Lawrence in the draft. No, it hasn't been fair, but what has happened over the past three years is a sunk cost. They don't know whether Darnold is their guy, and they're in too desperate of a position to wait and see.
Trading Darnold could be a win-win. The Jets would add a second-round selection and earn a conditional pick if, say, Darnold makes the Pro Bowl in 2021. In trading Darnold and turning the reins over to Joe Flacco and fourth-rounder James Morgan this season, they would be better positioned to follow through on that possible 0-8 start and come away with the first overall pick. The Colts could land on their quarterback of the future; and if Rivers struggles, they might even find their quarterback of the present.
