The Problem with Analytics.

[Torus34]

It started, if I'm not mistaken, with Moneyball, the book by Mr. Michael Lewis detailing the approach to baseball of Mr. Billy Beane. Analytics became The Big Thing. Number-crunching was the yellow brick road to winning games. It spread from Oakland to Boston and from there throughout the league. Next, it changed hosts, jumping from baseball to football. Data bases became as much a part of the NFL game as shoulder pads and helmet radios.

But there was a catch. Both the offensive and the defensive team knew what the percentage play was in a given situation. If a team played the numbers game and called the percentage play, the defense was ready for it. Even if the offensive team opted for the second-best play, the defense was well aware of that strategy, too.

What to do?

Well, has anyone noticed the rise of the 'trick' play? And how often such a play is successful? Have analytics and the number crunchers had their day?

Or am I just seeing something that, like the little man on the stair, isn't there?

Go, Gang Green!

 

[Tinstar]

It started, if I'm not mistaken, with Moneyball, the book by Mr. Michael Lewis detailing the approach to baseball of Mr. Billy Beane. Analytics became The Big Thing. Number-crunching was the yellow brick road to winning games. It spread from Oakland to Boston and from there throughout the league. Next, it changed hosts, jumping from baseball to football. Data bases became as much a part of the NFL game as shoulder pads and helmet radios.

But there was a catch. Both the offensive and the defensive team knew what the percentage play was in a given situation. If a team played the numbers game and called the percentage play, the defense was ready for it. Even if the offensive team opted for the second-best play, the defense was well aware of that strategy, too.

What to do?

Well, has anyone noticed the rise of the 'trick' play? And how often such a play is successful? Have analytics and the number crunchers had their day?

Or am I just seeing something that, like the little man on the stair, isn't there?

Go, Gang Green!

Don’t know if I welcomed you to the forum but I like you’re out of the box way of thinking. Oh and you’re correct about the rise in trick plays. Heck even well known so-called offensive geniuses are resorting to them these days.

I hate stats and number crunchers .

 

[LRJets]

Just heard there is a 69% chance the Vikings win. Boy would I love to reverse that and beat them like they stole something!

 

[Torus34]

Don’t know if I welcomed you to the forum but I like you’re out of the box way of thinking. Oh and you’re correct about the rise in trick plays. Heck even well known so-called offensive geniuses are resorting to them these days.

I hate stats and number crunchers .

Hi, Tinstar,

And thank you for the welcome. I've been a follower of the Jets since their Titan days. I'm not a good memorizer of details, so I try to look at the world of sports from a bit of a distance. That can lead to questions about some things that others might not yet have considered. The 'fuzzy logic' used by play callers and defense coordinators has interested me for quite a while.

As an aside, there's often lots of discussion about how well a QB performed overall during a game. Rarely, though, is there any credit or debit assigned to the part played by the play caller.

Regards, and enjoy the season.

Go, Gang Green!

 

[Torus34]

Just heard there is a 69% chance the Vikings win. Boy would I love to reverse that and beat them like they stole something!

Hi, LRJets.

I get a kick out of some predictions. Not whether they reflect who might or might not win, but how they're presented. In statistics, there's a caution about weighing a dog to greater precision than the weight of his fleas. That's the case here, I'm sure. 69, as opposed to, say, 65 or 75, is certainly doing just that. 60 to 80 might be even closer to a reasonable assessment.

Those who make sports predictions sometimes place their faith in a formula and don't bother to round off.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

Go, Gang Green!

 

[Innocenti]

It started, if I'm not mistaken, with Moneyball, the book by Mr. Michael Lewis detailing the approach to baseball of Mr. Billy Beane. Analytics became The Big Thing. Number-crunching was the yellow brick road to winning games. It spread from Oakland to Boston and from there throughout the league. Next, it changed hosts, jumping from baseball to football. Data bases became as much a part of the NFL game as shoulder pads and helmet radios.

But there was a catch. Both the offensive and the defensive team knew what the percentage play was in a given situation. If a team played the numbers game and called the percentage play, the defense was ready for it. Even if the offensive team opted for the second-best play, the defense was well aware of that strategy, too.

What to do?

Well, has anyone noticed the rise of the 'trick' play? And how often such a play is successful? Have analytics and the number crunchers had their day?

Or am I just seeing something that, like the little man on the stair, isn't there?

Go, Gang Green!

Interesting point. But data on the success and failure of plays has been collected for a long friggin time...I mean since the 70's at least. If you've ever seen the Ghost to the Post documentary about the 1977 season playoff game between the Raiders and the Colts, you would've heard that, "the play when called averaged a 9 yard gain." The data movement in football has a lot more to do with the advancement of technology than sabermetrics. ie, shoulder pads have become data points.

 

[Torus34]

Interesting point. But data on the success and failure of plays has been collected for a long friggin time...I mean since the 70's at least. If you've ever seen the Ghost to the Post documentary about the 1977 season playoff game between the Raiders and the Colts, you would've heard that, "the play when called averaged a 9 yard gain." The data movement in football has a lot more to do with the advancement of technology than sabermetrics. ie, shoulder pads have become data points.

Hi, innocenti!

Thanks for reading my post and responding. You're right, of course. Moneyball didn't pop out of nowhere. The concept had roots. It was a convenient place to start my little scribble, though.

Technology's another very full and squirming can of worms. I can see baseball adopting some form of strike/ball-calling tech eventually. Radios in batting helmets are another possibility. Basketball seems, at least as a first rough cut, more immune to tech, as does soccer and hockey. It's the set-piece games that lend themselves more to it, and to statistical analytics.

Regards, and happy holidays to you and yours.

Go, Gang Green!

 

[LRJets]

Enjoy the game Sunday.

 

[NewMFS62]

Yes, a belated welcome to this board.

Or am I just seeing something that, like the little man on the stair, isn't there?

Go, Gang Green!

Yes, a belated welcome to this board. A few things:
Electronic ball and strike systems will be tried in the minors this year.
Analytics are (is?) one more way for coaches to avoid blame when something doesn't work.
Just because a team has a tendency to run a certain play, it doesn't mean the other team can stop it. Teams knew about the "Green Bay Sweep" during the Lombardi years, but few teams were able to sop it. (sigh)
Trick plays have been around for years, but I'm not sure if they are any more or less prevalent today.
Those details of long ago haven't faded yet. But sometimes I can't remember what I had for breakfast.
What were we talking about? Oh yes, welcome.
Later

 

[Bigmoe]

Strat-O-Matic Football - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Torus34]

Yes, a belated welcome to this board.

Yes, a belated welcome to this board. A few things:
Electronic ball and strike systems will be tried in the minors this year.
Analytics are (is?) one more way for coaches to avoid blame when something doesn't work.
Just because a team has a tendency to run a certain play, it doesn't mean the other team can stop it. Teams knew about the "Green Bay Sweep" during the Lombardi years, but few teams were able to sop it. (sigh)
Trick plays have been around for years, but I'm not sure if they are any more or less prevalent today.
Those details of long ago haven't faded yet. But sometimes I can't remember what I had for breakfast.
What were we talking about? Oh yes, welcome.
Later

Hi, NewMFS62.

Thanks for the welcome, whenever given.

Ah. The Lombardi Era. He was driving a team of horses that were just plain awesome. I remember the poor New York Giants [There were giants in the land in those days,] with their passing-centered game going out to Green Bay. In the first 5 minutes, the Giants receivers hands turned blue and lost all feeling. The carnage wreaked by the Green Bay ground game was enough for me to send the children into another room -- and I was only listening to the game on the radio!

Watching pro sports evolve with time -- for me many decades -- has been interesting. I still wish pro baseball was two leagues with 8 teams each, just as the Creator intended. [Ed.: Can you spell 'troglodyte', Torus?]

Regards, and enjoy the rest of the season.

Go, Gang Green!