OT Belmont Stakes: Triple Crown?

[Green Jets & Ham]

Best thing American Pharoah has going for him, his grandfather (Empire Maker) won the Belmont Stakes and actually upset Funny Cide who was going for the Triple Crown that day, and inheriting stamina/distance often times will skip a generation, so Pharoah may have inherited it from his grandpa.

So I'm gonna say YES, the long Triple Crown drought (Affirmed in 78') ends here.

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[sg3]

IMO AP is seriously compromised by his need to run at or near the front of every race. If one of the other entries goes out with him for the first half to 3/4 mile that style is a recipe for failure in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont.

If he can be rated or if no other horse joins the pace duel and AP gets loose on the lead and Espinoza can set really slow fractions, it can happen

If the half mile is faster than 47 and change and there is a duel, IMO Affirmed will still be the last TC winner in 2016

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Interesting take, sg3, but if you watch his Derby run (I posted the Derby and Preakness), you'll see where he didn't try to set the pace from in front, he let other horses set the pace and stalked from behind, then made his move down the stretch.

In the Preakness his Jockey was planning to do the same, but when the torrential rains started falling just prior to and during the race, creating a messy track, Espinoza wisely made the adjustment and took his horse out to an early lead, because in that situation you don't want the leaders kicking mud back into your horses face, it could really unnerve him, so he bolted right to the front and went wire to wire.

So really he's shown that he can win both ways, and on a dry or wet track too.

PS. Don't forget to vote.

 

[sg3]

Interesting take, sg3, but if you watch his Derby run (I posted the Derby and Preakness), you'll see where he didn't try to set the pace from in front, he let other horses set the pace and stalked from behind, then made his move down the stretch.

In the Preakness his Jockey was planning to do the same, but when the torrential rains started falling just prior to and during the race, creating a messy track, Espinoza wisely made the adjustment and took his horse out to an early lead, because in that situation you don't want the leaders kicking mud back into your horses face, it could really unnerve him, so he bolted right to the front and went wire to wire.

So really he's shown that he can win both ways, and on a dry or wet track too.

PS. Don't forget to vote.

I'll be on Hilton Head Island on Belmont Stakes day but will be looking for a value play to close from midpack and run down the 2-5 vastly overbet AP in the last furlong. I'll be voting with my twinspires account on my laptop.

Will update and post my choices on the Friday before the race

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

sg3, watch him here in the Arkansas Derby too, this would be a perfect trip for him in the Belmont, he lets the 3 horse set the pace, remains within striking distance, then throws it into 5th Gear down the stretch and annihilates the rest of the field. This was an early sign that he might be a Super Horse.

 

[sg3]

Watched it when it happens and again now.

The pace horse went 22.77 for the quarter and 45 and change for the half. AP was probably 23.6 and 46.2 while rating. Those sort of fractions in the true test has him gasping and up the track in the last two furlongs of the mile and a half

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

This was AP on another sloppy track in the Rebel Stakes, and you'll notice Espinoza did the same thing he did in the Preakness, took him right to the front and went wire to wire. I watch the Preakness and this race and its clear that it would be a HUGE BREAK for Pharoah if it rains heavily on Belmont day. This horse is a monster on a wet track.

 

[sg3]

I threw out the Preakness as you did because of the slop. In the Derby the opening quarter was too fast but Baffert's other entry managed to slow down the race for AP at the half (47.3)

I watched Frosted's interesting late move in the stretch running out of room at a mile and a quarter and feel he has a really good shot (with 5 weeks rest) to catch and pass a spent AP in the stretch at a price probably in the 10 or more to 1 range

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

I threw out the Preakness as you did because of the slop. In the Derby the opening quarter was too fast but Baffert's other entry managed to slow down the race for AP at the half (47.3)

I watched Frosted's interesting late move in the stretch running out of room at a mile and a quarter and feel he has a really good shot (with 5 weeks rest) to catch and pass a spent AP in the stretch at a price probably in the 10 or more to 1 range

Frosted is dangerous, no doubt, its a good pick if you're looking for decent odds, but I'll be surprised if he goes off at 10-1, I think he's the fresh shooter a lot of people will be on.

I think I'll do an AP/Frosted exacta cause I'd like to see AP win the TC, and make money at the same time.

 

[sg3]

Frosted is dangerous, no doubt, its a good pick if you're looking for decent odds, but I'll be surprised if he goes off at 10-1, I think he's the fresh shooter a lot of people will be on.

I think I'll do an AP/Frosted exacta cause I'd like to see AP win the TC, and make money at the same time.

Might be a good bet but I'd reverse it too. I need to see the final field first, though. The one variable that doesn't matter ever in the Belmont is post position

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Might be a good bet but I'd reverse it too.

Oh yeah, I would never bet an exacta without boxing it.

 

[jetfandreamer]

I guess its an event..but horse racing is boring to me..its not really a sport...the animal is doing the work

 

[Elias]

I'm against horse racing myself. I'm an animal lover and think this is some type of an abuse. Call me a pansy or whatever but when a horse gets hurt racing, they sometimes euphonize them. That's messed up. But I'll vote!

 

[Fudbutter]

Not the only "drought" to end this season ... already set aside the dates for Jets home playoff games in January

BTW: This should be in off-topic. The traffic there should be much higher so anything you direct there will increase the folks who check out that aspect of this forum

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

I'm against horse racing myself. I'm an animal lover and think this is some type of an abuse. Call me a pansy or whatever but when a horse gets hurt racing, they sometimes euphonize them. That's messed up. But I'll vote!

I'm an animal lover too, E, but these horses are not abused, especially these stakes race horses, they're worth millions of dollars, they live better than most humans, and they love to run, they're stallions, its in their blood, they've been racing for thousands of years, since before the Roman empire, if they couldn't run they would whither away and die.

In the field, out in the wild, these stallions run all day and all night.

Oh and the reason they euthanize them when they get hurt, E, is so the animal doesn't suffer, the same reason why we animal lovers euthanize our pets if they have an incurable illness or injury, its an act of love, we don't want to put down the pets that we love, as much as it hurts us we're trying to be humane, because we care about the animal, and so do these owners, most of them love their horses, and besides, these horses are worth a fortune to them alive, so they have a financial incentive to keep them alive too. Its tragic when they breakdown, but its humane not to let them suffer.

 

[sg3]

Can we get this thread back on topic and discuss the upcoming Belmont Stakes?

Please

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Two more of AP's stakes races from his 2 Y.O. campaign, the Frontrunner and the Del Mar Futurity:

All of these races tell the same story, he doesn't only win stakes races, he wins them convincingly.

And he has the most important thing a racehorse can have ... late speed.

 

[sg3]

I think I'll let them run the race before declaring him the next Man O War, Slew, Affirmed or Secretariat and not the next California Chrome, Funny Cide, Charismatic or Big Brown

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

I think I'll let them run the race before declaring him the next Man O War, Slew, Affirmed or Secretariat and not the next California Chrome, Funny Cide, Charismatic or Big Brown

I hear you, but you have to admit these are impressive, authoritative wins, and you gotta love that late speed. Early speed means nothing, but when a horse has late speed, which suggests stamina, thats when you might have something special.

 

[Bigmoe]

Ok , I was on Dortmund because of his strength and size
Oh well
So now I'll go for the fresh horse and that will be Todd Pletcher's
Materiality who was 3-for-3 in his three races before the Derby and posted the highest Beyer Speed Figure (110) in the field when winning the Florida Derby. His sire, Afleet Alex, won the Preakness and Belmont, leaving little doubt that this horse has the pedigree to go fast and long.
He didn't race as a two year old and I think that inexperience hurt him.
In the Derby Materiality got off to a slow start and dropped back to 17th with a quarter of a mile to go before kicking in through the stretch to finish 6th.
That stretch in The Belmont is going to give this horse a chance to run down the leaders if he gets the right ride.
But that's horse racing : everyone has their angle , we shall see
Lightly raced and fresh