Ok here's my guess for that tri with AP on top , Materiality , and Frosted 2nd & 3rd
Less than $40 maybe closer to $30
Good luck
OT Belmont Stakes: Triple Crown?
- Thread starter Green Jets & Ham
- Start date
Ok here's my guess for that tri with AP on top , Materiality , and Frosted 2nd & 3rd
Less than $40 maybe closer to $30
Good luck
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/computer--american-pharoah-will-win-the-triple-crown-182148707.html
Computer: American Pharoah will win the Triple Crown
By Kristian Dyer
Yahoo Sports
The nation wants American Pharoah to win Saturday's Belmont Stakes and become the first horse to capture the Triple Crown since 1978. Turns out a computer analysis predicts it will happen.
Breaking down the race using a bevy of factors – the length of the race, trainers, jockeys – Predicteform.com's model shows American Pharoah is "the clear favorite, just over 50 percent likely to win the race," Paul Bessire, the site's general manager, told Yahoo Sports.
"The only legitimate contenders are Madefromlucky, Frosted and Materiality," Bessire said. "The other four horses are projected to be at least six lengths off the lead. Based on current betting odds, Madefromlucky is the only horse with decent win bet value.
"… With a smaller field and only half of that field competitive, we do not expect quite the excitement of recent years down the stretch, but that is actually good for a chance at a Triple Crown."
Pre-race odds put American Pharoah as the 3-5 favorite, with Frosted at 5-1, Materiality at 6-1 and Madefromlucky at 12-1.
Analytics have taken over sports, a reliance on data and performance that was made popular in the movie "Moneyball" about Billy Beane's construction of the successful Oakland A's on a shoestring budget. But analytics are growing in all sports, and horse racing is no different.
In fact, horse racing might be at the forefront of such movements, given how the sport is bolstered by the gaming industry.
Predicteform.com specializes in breaking down races to predict outcomes. It's the edge that the savvy track participant might just need to nab that trifecta, and for a graded stakes like Saturday's race at Belmont, the site goes into overdrive to break down the races.
"The most important thing is to look at every horse in an apples-to-apples manner," Bessire explained. "With the amount of data we have available today, it's not too difficult to remove the bias in the numbers caused by tracks, conditions, length of race, competition, class and time off.
"From that point, we focus on how a horse allocates his energy throughout the race, specifically honing in on the relationship between his first half mile and the latter part of the race. This helps to tell us how horses may improve or regress going into their next race."
That's all nice and great analysis but does it actually work?
Last year, Predicteform.com predicted (correctly) that California Chrome would win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, setting up a Triple Crown bid at last summer's Belmont. Then the website predicted that Tonalist would take the final jewel in the Triple Crown, which is exactly what happened.
Computer: American Pharoah will win the Triple Crown
By Kristian Dyer
Yahoo Sports
The nation wants American Pharoah to win Saturday's Belmont Stakes and become the first horse to capture the Triple Crown since 1978. Turns out a computer analysis predicts it will happen.
Breaking down the race using a bevy of factors – the length of the race, trainers, jockeys – Predicteform.com's model shows American Pharoah is "the clear favorite, just over 50 percent likely to win the race," Paul Bessire, the site's general manager, told Yahoo Sports.
"The only legitimate contenders are Madefromlucky, Frosted and Materiality," Bessire said. "The other four horses are projected to be at least six lengths off the lead. Based on current betting odds, Madefromlucky is the only horse with decent win bet value.
"… With a smaller field and only half of that field competitive, we do not expect quite the excitement of recent years down the stretch, but that is actually good for a chance at a Triple Crown."
Pre-race odds put American Pharoah as the 3-5 favorite, with Frosted at 5-1, Materiality at 6-1 and Madefromlucky at 12-1.
Analytics have taken over sports, a reliance on data and performance that was made popular in the movie "Moneyball" about Billy Beane's construction of the successful Oakland A's on a shoestring budget. But analytics are growing in all sports, and horse racing is no different.
In fact, horse racing might be at the forefront of such movements, given how the sport is bolstered by the gaming industry.
Predicteform.com specializes in breaking down races to predict outcomes. It's the edge that the savvy track participant might just need to nab that trifecta, and for a graded stakes like Saturday's race at Belmont, the site goes into overdrive to break down the races.
"The most important thing is to look at every horse in an apples-to-apples manner," Bessire explained. "With the amount of data we have available today, it's not too difficult to remove the bias in the numbers caused by tracks, conditions, length of race, competition, class and time off.
"From that point, we focus on how a horse allocates his energy throughout the race, specifically honing in on the relationship between his first half mile and the latter part of the race. This helps to tell us how horses may improve or regress going into their next race."
That's all nice and great analysis but does it actually work?
Last year, Predicteform.com predicted (correctly) that California Chrome would win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, setting up a Triple Crown bid at last summer's Belmont. Then the website predicted that Tonalist would take the final jewel in the Triple Crown, which is exactly what happened.
S
sg3
Guest
The race will be run by horses with little people riding them NOT by computers, trainers, TV and print journalism "experts"
I'm not going to bother checking but I'm pretty sure just about all these people were certain that Chrome and Charismatic and Funny Cyde and Big Brown and every other winner of the first two would easily win the Belmont
I'm not going to bother checking but I'm pretty sure just about all these people were certain that Chrome and Charismatic and Funny Cyde and Big Brown and every other winner of the first two would easily win the Belmont
Hey , dont go by me
Hate to see you have a winner and didn't take it
With all the hype on AP I can see him bet down to 2-5 or 1-5 by race time-
Driving that tri price even lower, don't forget, everybody will bet him on top followed by my 2 horses in that pool
That's what determines that tri price
Good luck
If you read that column I posted and see what the computer analysis says, giving Madefromlucky the best chance to pull-off an upset, at 12-1 it makes more sense to get him in the trifecta.
I think I'll do AP, MFL and Frosted, that order, then do AP, MFL and Materiality, so in both cases I have a 12-1 shot second.
PREDICTION TIME
Okay, here's my prediction:
American Pharoah will have the lead in the stretch, and not a small lead, at least three lengths, and no three year old can catch this horse in the stretch if he has that kind of lead, he has too much late speed ... BUT, that only applies if he's at his best ... if not, if the three races in five weeks and the mile-and-a-half Belmont finally catches up to him, then he won't have his normal late kick and he'll get caught, somebody will run past him at the wire.
THAT SAID, I'm predicting he has enough left in the tank to hold the lead and cross the wire first, and we'll have the first Triple Crown winner in 37 Years, and here's why I believe he will succeed where thirteen previous horses have failed after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown:
1. His grandfather, Empire Maker, won the Belmont Stakes and in doing so prevented Funny Cide who ran second from winning the Triple Crown, and distance stamina tends to skip a generation, so there's a good chance this horse inherited the distance from his grandpa.
2. This horse, unlike many of the previous contenders, had a fairly light racing schedule heading to the Kentucky Derby, so there's a chance he has more left in the tank than the usual Triple Crown contenders.
3. LATE SPEED, when he's right his late speed is breathtaking, and too me thats the most important quality in a stakes race, particularly one of this magnitude. In this race its second only to stamina, and that remains to be seen for all of these horses, none of them have ever run a mile-and-a-half and they'll never run this distance again after this race, but that aside, I love AP's late speed.
4. By all accounts AP came out of the Preakness in good shape, has maintained his weight, and according to Jerry Bailey, he's looked "awesome" in training.
5. Most important of all, three of the last four two year old champions that won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, finished the job and won the Belmont Stakes.
Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed were all two year old champions. The only two year old champion of the thirteen horses that have since won the first two legs and lost the Belmont was Spectacular Bid in 1979, and every racing person knows THE BID would have won it if he was not injured before the race (safety pin stuck in his hoof) and if the rider, Ronnie Franklin, had not given him the worst ride perhaps in the entire history of the Belmont Stakes. All of the other twelve since Affirmed were NOT two year old champions.
THAT LAST ONE IS HUGE, and IMO thats why AP wins this race, he's just a better horse than the previous thirteen who won the first two legs and failed in the Belmont, with the possible exception of Spectacular Bid, but normally when two year old champions carry their dominance into their three year old campaigns, and win the first two legs of the Triple Crown, THEY CLOSE THE DEAL in the Belmont Stakes. So I say AP Wins and he wins in a 10+ lengths rout.
Okay, here's my prediction:
American Pharoah will have the lead in the stretch, and not a small lead, at least three lengths, and no three year old can catch this horse in the stretch if he has that kind of lead, he has too much late speed ... BUT, that only applies if he's at his best ... if not, if the three races in five weeks and the mile-and-a-half Belmont finally catches up to him, then he won't have his normal late kick and he'll get caught, somebody will run past him at the wire.
THAT SAID, I'm predicting he has enough left in the tank to hold the lead and cross the wire first, and we'll have the first Triple Crown winner in 37 Years, and here's why I believe he will succeed where thirteen previous horses have failed after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown:
1. His grandfather, Empire Maker, won the Belmont Stakes and in doing so prevented Funny Cide who ran second from winning the Triple Crown, and distance stamina tends to skip a generation, so there's a good chance this horse inherited the distance from his grandpa.
2. This horse, unlike many of the previous contenders, had a fairly light racing schedule heading to the Kentucky Derby, so there's a chance he has more left in the tank than the usual Triple Crown contenders.
3. LATE SPEED, when he's right his late speed is breathtaking, and too me thats the most important quality in a stakes race, particularly one of this magnitude. In this race its second only to stamina, and that remains to be seen for all of these horses, none of them have ever run a mile-and-a-half and they'll never run this distance again after this race, but that aside, I love AP's late speed.
4. By all accounts AP came out of the Preakness in good shape, has maintained his weight, and according to Jerry Bailey, he's looked "awesome" in training.
5. Most important of all, three of the last four two year old champions that won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, finished the job and won the Belmont Stakes.
Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed were all two year old champions. The only two year old champion of the thirteen horses that have since won the first two legs and lost the Belmont was Spectacular Bid in 1979, and every racing person knows THE BID would have won it if he was not injured before the race (safety pin stuck in his hoof) and if the rider, Ronnie Franklin, had not given him the worst ride perhaps in the entire history of the Belmont Stakes. All of the other twelve since Affirmed were NOT two year old champions.
THAT LAST ONE IS HUGE, and IMO thats why AP wins this race, he's just a better horse than the previous thirteen who won the first two legs and failed in the Belmont, with the possible exception of Spectacular Bid, but normally when two year old champions carry their dominance into their three year old campaigns, and win the first two legs of the Triple Crown, THEY CLOSE THE DEAL in the Belmont Stakes. So I say AP Wins and he wins in a 10+ lengths rout.
S
sg3
Guest
Frosted, Materiality and Made from Lucky
Box Exacta
Another Baffart special runs too close to the pace and gets passed by three or more other horses in the last 3 furlongs.
Box Exacta
Another Baffart special runs too close to the pace and gets passed by three or more other horses in the last 3 furlongs.
One thing that impressed me about AP that I heard the other day.
They measure the stride of the horse in feet
Big Red had a stride of 22'
AP comes in with a stride of 24'
Not comparing him to probably the greatest horse ever , just another " angle"
With that said its all about stamina at "The Big Sandy"
Materiality to win
Exacta box with Frosted
Good Luck all
S
sg3
Guest
I think Big Brown had a huge measured stride of around 27 and ran like another kind of big brown when it mattered in the mile and half true test
Crap there is a gray horse in the race I hope that doesn't bring bad luck..:no-comment-smiley-e
I said if he hits the stretch in the lead and he has anything left in the tank, nobody is catching him, too much late speed.
American Pharoah, welcome to the most exclusive club in sports and horse racing immortality, you succeeded where 13 previous Triple Crown contenders failed, now you can take your rightful place along side the all-time greats.
American Pharoah, welcome to the most exclusive club in sports and horse racing immortality, you succeeded where 13 previous Triple Crown contenders failed, now you can take your rightful place along side the all-time greats.
They just said ONLY SECRETARIAT ran a faster Belmont Stakes than American Pharoah did today.
I don't know if they meant Triple Crown winners or any Belmont, but either way thats impressive.