Better or Worse in '18

[mydogisajetsfan]

Yes, I'm extremely bored. The next two months are the worst for a football fanatic like me. So please indulge me.

Offense

QB
Stats won't mean anything here. The excitement will be palpable to get Darnold on the field to see what he can do. My guess is his stats won't be great but he will show flashes of greatness and the excitement for 2019 will be off-the-charts. Best case scenario is Teddy is Ready and gets traded before the season starts. Otherwise he won't be on the team week one. If Hack shows any improvement in the preseason to where teams may consider him a potential backup, Mac may get a 6th or 7th rounder for him. I hope Bowles plays McCown for only one series again in the preseason. After that, Darnold and Hack should be next up and let Teddy finish the fourth quarter of the games. You don't need to see if he reads NFL defenses. We just need to see if he's physically up to it.

Running Backs
I think Mac did a solid job with this group. Crowell replacing Forte alone makes this a better group. Eli McGuire should make strides in year 2. Powell will be Powell which is a good thing. Flowers may be the surprise here. This will be a moderate need in '19.

Wide Receivers
On paper this group should be much better. I think Pryor was the second best free agency get (Trumaine Johnson). I think he will be McCown's go-to guy. IF Enunwa is healthy and Anderson can stay out of trouble this is a very solid group. Kearse is Kearse which is a good thing. Stewart and Hanson should show something this year. If things work out as planned this will be only a moderate need in '19.

Tight Ends
The great unknown. Rookies (including Leggett) are talented but coming off injury. We could get something out of Clive Walford but not nearly as much as ASJ gave us. I am not expecting much from this group which is too bad because Darnold could have used a safety valve here. Depending on what the rookies show, this should be a moderate need in '19.

Offensive Line
IF everyone gets/stays healthy they should be adequate. If not, this will be the achilles heel of 2018. I don't trust any of the backups to hold up. I'm already concerned about Long's health and when he can start to practice. If he can't play Mac is going to really regret not drafting a center in the middle rounds. MAJOR need in '19. Expect Mac to spend heavily and draft early here in '19.

Defense

Defensive Line
There are a lot of moving parts here. We hope Leo gets a half a second faster/quicker and turns hurries into sacks. McClendon will fill his role adequately. It's a defining year for Simon to see if he make can take the next step up. It will be interesting to see if the rookies, Sheppart and Fatukasi, contribute, or at the very least, show flashes. All depends on what the rookies show and Simon's improvement. I'm guessing not a huge need in '19.

LB
Williamson replacing Davis is a net add. Darren Lee is a big question mark. At the very least he should be a decent ILB but he has the skills to be much better than that. If he reaches that potential the entire defense will benefit. Not a huge need in '19.

OLB
A mess. No additions for a below average group. Bowles will try to compensate by using exotic blitzes which may work against some teams, but the Pats, Steelers and Vikes will exploit this area. Mac will likely bring in a prized free agent here and will draft early.

Secondary
The opposite of the OLB group. This will be the strength of the team. It should be fun to watch them which is a complete reversal of our recent secondary. Johnson should thrive here and Claiborne, IF HE STAYS HEALTHY, should have a better season as a #2 CB. It will be exciting to see how much better Adams and Maye will be this year. I think the surprise of this group will be Parry Nickerson. It's make or break for Burris. Hoping Clark and Jones show us something, even if it's only depth. This should be a moderate to significant need in '19. Mac will want to find Claiborne's long-term replacement and depth if the rookies don't show enough.

Wildcards
I think the biggest wildcard for this team will be the impact Bates will/can make. He has a lot of projects including Darnold. His impact on the team will be seen in the last 4-6 weeks of the season.

 

[SackExchange]

Ultimately, I would argue the only area of the team that took a step back this offseason would be TEs. I'm not sure the team adequately replaced ASJ.

That said...

Offense:

1. The QB position is stronger long-term, even if McCown does not replicate last year's surprise numbers.
2, The RBs are moderately improved with the addition of Crowell and with McGuire having a bit of experience.
3. WRs are much better than Week 1 of last year, if you consider Kearse wasn't a Jet then. Consider the addition of Pryor, the return of Enunwa, and having Kearse for a full season.
4. TEs, see above. Biggest downgrade on the roster, but one that could be mitigated if their draft picks from last year or this year develop, or if their backups continue to show something the way Eric Tomlinson showed some sparks last year.
5. As for the OL, no major losses, and the addition of Long and some depth moves make it somewhat solidified from last year. No major losses, some moderate gains.

Defense:

1. The DL's biggest losses from Week 1 are Richardson and Mo. If you count Kearse as an addition, then you have to count Sheldon as a subtraction. That said, he wasn't with them most of the season. Then you look at Mo, who was unmotivated last year. The Jets made some additions in the draft and with signings, particularly with Shepherd in the draft and the trade for Anderson, and I think the production could be slightly better here than last year, even if the names aren't as big. Another step by Leonard and the DL will be a strength.
2. At LB, the team remained pretty stagnant, though I consider Avery Williamson a long-term upgrade over Davis. Still a need for an edge rusher, but no step back.
3. The secondary took one huge step forward getting the best CB in free agency, strengthening the CB matchups across the board. And with the two young safeties, this team will have a very strong secondary for years. Plus, Nickerson could replace Skrine during the season. Major step forward.

So, in one position, there was probably a step back. In several positions, there were small or gradual steps forward, and in a couple positions, there were significant gains. This team projects, in my opinion, to be improved, and the schedule won't be as hellish as last year. This team will be better this year than last year, and is set up to be much better in 2019 and 2020 than it was last year.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

Ultimately, I would argue the only area of the team that took a step back this offseason would be TEs. I'm not sure the team adequately replaced ASJ.

That said...

Offense:

1. The QB position is stronger long-term, even if McCown does not replicate last year's surprise numbers.
2, The RBs are moderately improved with the addition of Crowell and with McGuire having a bit of experience.
3. WRs are much better than Week 1 of last year, if you consider Kearse wasn't a Jet then. Consider the addition of Pryor, the return of Enunwa, and having Kearse for a full season.
4. TEs, see above. Biggest downgrade on the roster, but one that could be mitigated if their draft picks from last year or this year develop, or if their backups continue to show something the way Eric Tomlinson showed some sparks last year.
5. As for the OL, no major losses, and the addition of Long and some depth moves make it somewhat solidified from last year. No major losses, some moderate gains.

Defense:

1. The DL's biggest losses from Week 1 are Richardson and Mo. If you count Kearse as an addition, then you have to count Sheldon as a subtraction. That said, he wasn't with them most of the season. Then you look at Mo, who was unmotivated last year. The Jets made some additions in the draft and with signings, particularly with Shepherd in the draft and the trade for Anderson, and I think the production could be slightly better here than last year, even if the names aren't as big. Another step by Leonard and the DL will be a strength.
2. At LB, the team remained pretty stagnant, though I consider Avery Williamson a long-term upgrade over Davis. Still a need for an edge rusher, but no step back.
3. The secondary took one huge step forward getting the best CB in free agency, strengthening the CB matchups across the board. And with the two young safeties, this team will have a very strong secondary for years. Plus, Nickerson could replace Skrine during the season. Major step forward.

So, in one position, there was probably a step back. In several positions, there were small or gradual steps forward, and in a couple positions, there were significant gains. This team projects, in my opinion, to be improved, and the schedule won't be as hellish as last year. This team will be better this year than last year, and is set up to be much better in 2019 and 2020 than it was last year.

^^this^^

Regarding the original post, I don’t think we need to worry about Darron Lee. His progress has been gradual, but he’s getting there. I thought he looked really good in spurts last season. And Mo Claiborne started 15 games last season. I’m not worried about him staying healthy. He had some tough luck injuries with the Cowboys.

Two upgrades are coming next season. Left tackle should be addressed with the 1st round pick if the value is there. And a pass rushing impact OLB needs to be addressed, but those are very hard to find in FA. And they typically get scooped up in the top 10 (like Bradley Chubb).

 

[mydogisajetsfan]

Ultimately, I would argue the only area of the team that took a step back this offseason would be TEs. I'm not sure the team adequately replaced ASJ.

That said...

Offense:

1. The QB position is stronger long-term, even if McCown does not replicate last year's surprise numbers.
2, The RBs are moderately improved with the addition of Crowell and with McGuire having a bit of experience.
3. WRs are much better than Week 1 of last year, if you consider Kearse wasn't a Jet then. Consider the addition of Pryor, the return of Enunwa, and having Kearse for a full season.
4. TEs, see above. Biggest downgrade on the roster, but one that could be mitigated if their draft picks from last year or this year develop, or if their backups continue to show something the way Eric Tomlinson showed some sparks last year.
5. As for the OL, no major losses, and the addition of Long and some depth moves make it somewhat solidified from last year. No major losses, some moderate gains.

Defense:

1. The DL's biggest losses from Week 1 are Richardson and Mo. If you count Kearse as an addition, then you have to count Sheldon as a subtraction. That said, he wasn't with them most of the season. Then you look at Mo, who was unmotivated last year. The Jets made some additions in the draft and with signings, particularly with Shepherd in the draft and the trade for Anderson, and I think the production could be slightly better here than last year, even if the names aren't as big. Another step by Leonard and the DL will be a strength.
2. At LB, the team remained pretty stagnant, though I consider Avery Williamson a long-term upgrade over Davis. Still a need for an edge rusher, but no step back.
3. The secondary took one huge step forward getting the best CB in free agency, strengthening the CB matchups across the board. And with the two young safeties, this team will have a very strong secondary for years. Plus, Nickerson could replace Skrine during the season. Major step forward.

So, in one position, there was probably a step back. In several positions, there were small or gradual steps forward, and in a couple positions, there were significant gains. This team projects, in my opinion, to be improved, and the schedule won't be as hellish as last year. This team will be better this year than last year, and is set up to be much better in 2019 and 2020 than it was last year.

A very solid analysis.

 

[jets82]

Yes, I'm extremely bored. The next two months are the worst for a football fanatic like me. So please indulge me.

Offense

QB
Stats won't mean anything here. The excitement will be palpable to get Darnold on the field to see what he can do. My guess is his stats won't be great but he will show flashes of greatness and the excitement for 2019 will be off-the-charts. Best case scenario is Teddy is Ready and gets traded before the season starts. Otherwise he won't be on the team week one. If Hack shows any improvement in the preseason to where teams may consider him a potential backup, Mac may get a 6th or 7th rounder for him. I hope Bowles plays McCown for only one series again in the preseason. After that, Darnold and Hack should be next up and let Teddy finish the fourth quarter of the games. You don't need to see if he reads NFL defenses. We just need to see if he's physically up to it.

Running Backs
I think Mac did a solid job with this group. Crowell replacing Forte alone makes this a better group. Eli McGuire should make strides in year 2. Powell will be Powell which is a good thing. Flowers may be the surprise here. This will be a moderate need in '19.

Wide Receivers
On paper this group should be much better. I think Pryor was the second best free agency get (Trumaine Johnson). I think he will be McCown's go-to guy. IF Enunwa is healthy and Anderson can stay out of trouble this is a very solid group. Kearse is Kearse which is a good thing. Stewart and Hanson should show something this year. If things work out as planned this will be only a moderate need in '19.

Tight Ends
The great unknown. Rookies (including Leggett) are talented but coming off injury. We could get something out of Clive Walford but not nearly as much as ASJ gave us. I am not expecting much from this group which is too bad because Darnold could have used a safety valve here. Depending on what the rookies show, this should be a moderate need in '19.

Offensive Line
IF everyone gets/stays healthy they should be adequate. If not, this will be the achilles heel of 2018. I don't trust any of the backups to hold up. I'm already concerned about Long's health and when he can start to practice. If he can't play Mac is going to really regret not drafting a center in the middle rounds. MAJOR need in '19. Expect Mac to spend heavily and draft early here in '19.

Defense

Defensive Line
There are a lot of moving parts here. We hope Leo gets a half a second faster/quicker and turns hurries into sacks. McClendon will fill his role adequately. It's a defining year for Simon to see if he make can take the next step up. It will be interesting to see if the rookies, Sheppart and Fatukasi, contribute, or at the very least, show flashes. All depends on what the rookies show and Simon's improvement. I'm guessing not a huge need in '19.

LB
Williamson replacing Davis is a net add. Darren Lee is a big question mark. At the very least he should be a decent ILB but he has the skills to be much better than that. If he reaches that potential the entire defense will benefit. Not a huge need in '19.

OLB
A mess. No additions for a below average group. Bowles will try to compensate by using exotic blitzes which may work against some teams, but the Pats, Steelers and Vikes will exploit this area. Mac will likely bring in a prized free agent here and will draft early.

Secondary
The opposite of the OLB group. This will be the strength of the team. It should be fun to watch them which is a complete reversal of our recent secondary. Johnson should thrive here and Claiborne, IF HE STAYS HEALTHY, should have a better season as a #2 CB. It will be exciting to see how much better Adams and Maye will be this year. I think the surprise of this group will be Parry Nickerson. It's make or break for Burris. Hoping Clark and Jones show us something, even if it's only depth. This should be a moderate to significant need in '19. Mac will want to find Claiborne's long-term replacement and depth if the rookies don't show enough.

Wildcards
I think the biggest wildcard for this team will be the impact Bates will/can make. He has a lot of projects including Darnold. His impact on the team will be seen in the last 4-6 weeks of the season.

Excellent analysis, I couldn’t of said it much better myself. Biggest ? Mark is QB and who they play and how that or those QBs play. Darnold earns it from game one and plays decent, the Jets can have a surprisingly decent season (7-8 wins???). Anything better then a decent season means a better record. If he isn’t ready and sits awhile then McCown carries this team to another 5 win, maybe 7 at best. I’m not expecting Bridgewater to play and who knows if he will even be on this team with his knee issue but if he plays and is %100 healthy, 7-8 wins also.

 

[NewMFS62]

Here's Brian Costello's take:
https://nypost.com/2018/05/14/sam-darnold-not-the-only-piece-to-consider-in-jets-overhaul/

Later

 

[SackExchange]

Here's Brian Costello's take:
https://nypost.com/2018/05/14/sam-darnold-not-the-only-piece-to-consider-in-jets-overhaul/

Later

He makes some good points. I agree with him that McCown will be hard-pressed to replicate last year.

However, I drastically disagree with him about the defensive line. He is suggesting the unit will miss Mo. Did he bother watching games last year? Sorry, but Mo was a non-factor, and they addressed DL solidly with their picks and draft-day trade.

I slightly disagree with him about Williamson over Davis. Davis' production was high, but Williamson is an all-around better player.

He doesn't even factor in Nickerson in the CB discussion, and considers the safeties a wash, even though even he admits they should progress from year 1 to year 2.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

Costello is usually pretty spot on. But I think he’s wrong about Wilkerson, and underestimates Terrell Pryor. Wilkerson was an overpaid DE who disappeared for long stretches last season. And his tardiness issues became too much. How are you habitually late for team meetings as a supposed leader of this defense?

And Terrell Pryor was a beast with Cleveland in 2016. Was his 2017 season in Washington scheme related? We’ll find out soon enough. I’m betting Pryor is a big part of Bates’ offense, especially in the red zone.

 

[AFA2017]

This is my take on the Jets. The Offensive line stinks. Our Qb's will be running for there lives. Our running game will be a non factor because the will be no holes for them to go through. Our WR's will be running short routes because our QB's will not have enough time in the pocket. I expect out Defense to be good or else its "Adios" to Bowles. Bowles has his secondary and enough CB's for his Defense. So Bowles, "you talk the talk, lets see you walk the walk"!!!!!!

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

This is my take on the Jets. The Offensive line stinks. Our Qb's will be running for there lives. Our running game will be a non factor because the will be no holes for them to go through. Our WR's will be running short routes because our QB's will not have enough time in the pocket. I expect out Defense to be good or else its "Adios" to Bowles. Bowles has his secondary and enough CB's for his Defense. So Bowles, "you talk the talk, lets see you walk the walk"!!!!!!

Our starting 5 offensive linemen gave up 22 combined sacks last season. That’s with Wesley Johnson at Center. Some simple math puts that at just under 1.4 sacks per game.

Are they really going to be running for their lives?

 

[SackExchange]

Our starting 5 offensive linemen gave up 22 combined sacks last season. That’s with Wesley Johnson at Center. Some simple math puts that at just under 1.4 sacks per game.

Are they really going to be running for their lives?

No, they're not. The OL is average, particularly with the additions. Guards might be above average. RT is a weak spot.

 

[AFA2017]

Our starting 5 offensive linemen gave up 22 combined sacks last season. That’s with Wesley Johnson at Center. Some simple math puts that at just under 1.4 sacks per game.

Are they really going to be running for their lives?

Yes! Quit kidding yourselves. Every year your optimistic about the improvements and how the Jets will take it to the next level. Its not happening! Our OL is holding us back and will continue until someone comes in and sees the void that's there.

 

[beresford]

About the same, 6-10 to 4-12. You KNOW that the new center will get injured early on, leaving us with last year's O line. Which means McGuire will get nowhere. Crowell is a journeyman replacing Forte, ASJ leaves just as we are starting to see some TE play and we hope Enunwa will be back to his best. Defense should be a bit better but you cannot win with just defense. Darnold turns out to need work while the other three become starters for their franchises.

Front row seat to another Patriots' coronation.

 

[SackExchange]

About the same, 6-10 to 4-12. You KNOW that the new center will get injured early on, leaving us with last year's O line. Which means McGuire will get nowhere. Crowell is a journeyman replacing Forte, ASJ leaves just as we are starting to see some TE play and we hope Enunwa will be back to his best. Defense should be a bit better but you cannot win with just defense. Darnold turns out to need work while the other three become starters for their franchises.

Front row seat to another Patriots' coronation.

So the only loss is ASJ, but none of the additions will pan out, the young players won't develop, and there is only hope that players injured last year will come back to their best. That is a worst case scenario, and honestly, the worst case scenario has the offense at status quo, the defense improved, and a less rigorous schedule.

 

[mydogisajetsfan]

Here's Brian Costello's take:
https://nypost.com/2018/05/14/sam-darnold-not-the-only-piece-to-consider-in-jets-overhaul/

Later

This looks remarkably like what I posted!

 

[lounap23]

Costello is usually pretty spot on. But I think he’s wrong about Wilkerson, and underestimates Terrell Pryor. Wilkerson was an overpaid DE who disappeared for long stretches last season. And his tardiness issues became too much. How are you habitually late for team meetings as a supposed leader of this defense?

And Terrell Pryor was a beast with Cleveland in 2016. Was his 2017 season in Washington scheme related? We’ll find out soon enough. I’m betting Pryor is a big part of Bates’ offense, especially in the red zone.

Agreed completely wrong that we will miss Mo... the D played better last year without him the addition of a healthy Anderson and the 3rd round pick Sheppard makes that an upgrade.

And the fact Enunwa didn't play last year and the addition of a healthy Terrele Pryor is a big upgrade at WR

 

[NCgreen12]

Is it not nice to say we don't have QB as our major concern and it could actually be a strength. Maybe since 1998 when Vinny was playing lights out it was similar, however, he was in the twilight of his career.

Biggest worry is Oline and pass rush. Everything else is at least as good or better. Having Darnold just puts a positive on everything.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

About the same, 6-10 to 4-12. You KNOW that the new center will get injured early on, leaving us with last year's O line. Which means McGuire will get nowhere. Crowell is a journeyman replacing Forte, ASJ leaves just as we are starting to see some TE play and we hope Enunwa will be back to his best. Defense should be a bit better but you cannot win with just defense. Darnold turns out to need work while the other three become starters for their franchises.

Front row seat to another Patriots' coronation.

I’ve been accused of being overly optimistic about the Jets. But this has got to be the polar opposite. Why does everyone think Spencer Long is going to either suck or not stay healthy? Plenty of players get hurt and bounce back just fine. I don’t think we would’ve given him that contract if we didn’t think so. Crowell has played for one team prior to coming to the Jets. That’s a journeyman? He put up good numbers last season. I recognize that the TE position could be a weakness, but too many people are overrating ASJ. He disappeared towards the second half of the season.

Mayfield, Rosen and Allen can start right away. No problem. As long as Darnold becomes the best of the four, that’s all that matters. And most people think he will.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

Is it not nice to say we don't have QB as our major concern and it could actually be a strength. Maybe since 1998 when Vinny was playing lights out it was similar, however, he was in the twilight of his career.

Biggest worry is Oline and pass rush. Everything else is at least as good or better. Having Darnold just puts a positive on everything.

How any Jets fan can’t be happy about Darnold and the direction this team is headed is beyond me. Obviously, Darnold still has to go out and do it. But I haven’t been this optimistic about this team in my entire lifetime of being a Jets fan. From Ken O’Brien in ‘83 to last season, it’s been journeymen QB’s, average QB’s and flops.

That ends now. Darnold is the answer.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

Yes! Quit kidding yourselves. Every year your optimistic about the improvements and how the Jets will take it to the next level. Its not happening! Our OL is holding us back and will continue until someone comes in and sees the void that's there.

Again, I’m not saying they’re the 2008 Jets o-line. They need some eventual upgrades. But that wasn’t going to be addressed in the draft or FA (other than Long) this year. FA had virtually no Tackles worth much other than average Nate Solder, and the Center position had Richburg (who bolted for the 49ers offer), Jensen (ridiculously overpaid by the Bucs), and Long. What were we supposed to do? We had no 2nd round pick, and the best Centers and Guards were gone by the 3rd round. Besides, most teams have players earmarked on their draft boards. The Jets took Sheppard in the 3rd, as an example, because he was a guy they had targeted right around that spot. I’m almost certain Macc didn’t say “well, we could really use a Guard here, so who’s available?” Listening to Maccagnan interviews, I’m certain he doesn’t think that way. And rightly so.

Rome wasn’t built in a day. The o-line will get attention next off season.