Breaking down Jets' top free agents and their chances of re-signing

gmf1369

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Big decisions: The 2020 offseason begins as soon as Super Bowl LIV is over and the confetti starts flying. The Jets' decision-makers, already preparing, spent the past week in free-agency meetings. Before they open the checkbook for outside free agents, they have to figure out which of their own they want to keep. They have 22 unrestricted free agents; the only team with more UFAs is the Dallas Cowboys (25), according to OverTheCap.com.

Here's a breakdown of the New York's top pending free agents and their odds of returning to the Jets:

Robby Anderson, wide receiver: His body of work doesn't jump off the page (no 1,000-yard receiving seasons), but he's looking at a big score because he's young (27 in May), fast and one of the few quality options in a thin receiver market. Experts say he could land a deal that averages at least $13 million per year. Watch out for the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders. The Jets are hesitant to go that high, as they should be. Chances of return: 25%

Jordan Jenkins, linebacker: He's a complementary player who can set the edge against the run and contribute eight or so sacks per season -- and there's definitely value in that. That said, he's not a top-tier edge rusher. Based on pass-rushing metrics, he's not even the best edge rusher on the team. (Tarell Basham has him beat.) Jenkins probably is looking at something in the range of $7 million to $9 million per year. Chances of return: 50%

Brian Poole, cornerback: Playing the all-important slot corner position, he was one of the Jets' most consistent players. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams loves his aggressive style of play. Hurting at the position, the Jets will make a strong bid to keep him. Figure he lands a deal worth at least $6 million per season. Chances of return: 65%

Kelvin Beachum, left tackle: Competent left tackles are hard to find, especially ones who don't make too many mistakes in pass protection. The Jets want to get younger -- Beachum turns 31 in June -- but there's no guarantee they will find a plug-and-play left tackle with the No. 11 pick in the draft. The hunch is Beachum will look to explore the market. Chances of return: 45%

Alex Lewis, guard: He's a Joe Douglas guy -- acquired in a preseason trade -- so you can bet the Jets' general manager will push to keep him. Coach Adam Gase likes him, too. Lewis did a solid job at left guard in the aftermath of the Kelechi Osemele fiasco. Chances of return: 70%

Brandon Shell, right tackle: Gase tried to replace the 2016 fifth-round pick last season, but had to play him because of all the injuries on the offensive line. Adios. Chances of return: 5%

Neville Hewitt, inside linebacker: The defensive coaches have a lot of faith in Hewitt, who wound up playing 69% of the defensive snaps because of injuries to C.J. Mosley and Avery Williamson at inside linebacker. Hewitt's value will increase if Williamson becomes a salary-cap casualty, which is likely. Chances of return: 75%

Bilal Powell, running back: The longest-tenured Jet was a nice change-of-pace back -- he was more effective than Le'Veon Bell on certain runs -- but he's 31 and the offense needs more speed in the backfield. That said, he's well-regarded within the organization and it wouldn't be a surprise if he gets another one-year deal to prove his worth. Chances of return: 40%

Demaryius Thomas, wide receiver: Thomas, 32, was a positive locker-room presence, but it's a young man's game, especially at this position. Chances of return: 20%

Trevor Siemian, quarterback: The Jets didn't see much of Siemian, because of his horrible ankle injury, but they saw enough. It's time to upgrade the No. 2 QB position, particularly since Sam Darnold has missed six of 32 games. Chances of return: 25%

 

AFA2017

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
I'm for keeping OLB Jenkins, CB Poole, OL Beachum, OL Lewis, and Hewitt ILB. I am not sold on Anderson especially if he wants north of $ 10 mil.
 
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Gramoah

Retired but not Tired
Jet Fanatics
I'm for keeping OLB Jenkins, CB Poole, OL Beachum, OL Lewis, and Hewitt ILB. I am not sold on Anderson especially if he wants north of $ 10,000.

I'm sure you meant $10,000,000. No way he stays for $10,000. LOL Otherwise I agree except that I'd bring back Powell too. He's played well and is a good team player and locker room presence. He also likes being here and wouldn't likely cost much to retain.
 

gmf1369

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I'm sure you meant $10,000,000. No way he stays for $10,000. LOL Otherwise I agree except that I'd bring back Powell too. He's played well and is a good team player and locker room presence. He also likes being here and wouldn't likely cost much to retain.
nah 10 K was right bc RA only plays part time

what are the expectations for our backfield? will they entertain a trade and to whom? the only team I think that may want Bell and may be willing to pony up a 3rd for him would be the Arizona Cardinals sorry @butterscotch but even if they bring back Kenyon Drake they need another true well rounded back to play alongside David Johnson who is aging awfully.

otherwise the offers the team did receive before the trade deadline were of them 5th round picks that I feel where his value is now...

I would bring Bilal Powell back on a 2 year deal, guarantee the first year and leave the team an option to walk away after the first year... If he remains on the team start of league year in the second year he would have his contract guaranteed being a vested veteran, so he would have something to strive for... Also opens the door for him to retire on his terms, as a Jet...

I expect both Trenton Cannon and Jalin Moore are going to be sent packing, this off season as they don't fit this offense I could be wrong just a feeling...

Josh Adams is the younger version of what Le'Veon could of been, but like how little Brandon Shell was used the same could be said about Josh Adams with this horrendous Head Coach, maybe JA gets his chance alongside BP and we add a 3rd in the draft? Maybe we keep Cannon or sign a FA, but this backfield has to compliment the passing attack not be its own entity...
 

gmf1369

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two ways the Jets can go with Brian Poole;

sign him to a straight 3 year deal for $27 M with $21 of the $27 guaranteed, this kid is worth it albeit he will turn 27 next year...
or sign him to a monster 5 year deal where guarantees are in the first 3 years leaving the window open to restructure the final 2 years to prevent him exiting after the 3 year deal bc in this defense he is a perfect fit, technically he is that ideal run defender that can play the pass as that nickel corner...

like Brian Poole, expect the Jets to retain Jordan Jenkins on a 4 year deal but bc of his upward production over the last two seasons a deal nearly $7 M annual would have to be in the cards... We know Jenkins as an edge setter against the run but he has turned into a developing edge rusher, with consistent production... Just hope this management doesn't let him test the market bc someone will attempt to lure him away overpaying him then cutting him after a couple seasons...

Hopefully the active effort guy like Neville Hewitt gets that 3 year extension won't command much maybe $6 M in total for the 3 years but the effort he plays with shows some players always play with that chip on their shoulder proving they are worth more then the price tag they play under...

James Burgess Jr. should get a RFA tag, hope he also returns this opens what to do with both Avery Williamson & CJ Mosley? Both cap casualties or both trade chips?
 
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