With NFL free agency officially opening on March 16th, teams across the league will look for the best way to upgrade their roster. Historically, spending big money in free agency isn’t the best strategy for long-term, sustained success. With every free agent acquisition comes a financial commitment and a lot of overall risk. After all, teams are buying players that most likely developed with a different team and for some reason or another, were not extended by said team. Oftentimes, big money free agent acquisitions end up looking like bad values and gross overpays more so than smart, buy-low purchases that have good return on investment. There are some high profile players that stand out in this year’s free agent class as especially risky, for a variety of reasons. Below, we highlight four of those names who are sure to give some teams pause when deciding whether to offer them a lucrative contract.
Brandon Scherff, Guard
With Scherff, the concern is all about his health. Since 2018, Scherff has missed time due to Knee, Shoulder, Pectoral, Elbow, and Ankle injuries – making it hard to trust that he’ll be injury-free. Scherff played both 2020 and 2021 on the franchise tag, which reveals that Washington has been delaying inking him to a long-term extension. Given how productive he is when he’s on the field, I’d expect Scherff to be close to a $13-$15 million dollar a year player. For a guard that hasn’t played a full season since 2016, is that really a keen investment?
Allen Robinson, Wide Receiver
Robinson is seeking his third contract in the NFL, and it will likely be with a team other than the Chicago Bears. Coming off a 2021 season where he averaged only 34 receiving yards a game, Spotrac projects him to have a value of $16.3 million per season moving forward. That’s a steep price to pay for a receiver who’s only appeared in one pro bowl and only has one season with over seven touchdowns (2015). Robinson is a good player, and will be a commodity to whomever signs him, but will he return the value of a top-of-the-market wideout? That seems to be an optimistic bet at a position that hasn’t been one of the more profitable positions to shop for in free agency.
Stephon Gilmore, Cornerback
We’ve all seen how highly of a level Gilmore can play at – after all, he was the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year and has been regarded as a top two or three cornerback in the game for five-plus years now. However, him being a risky buy is more about his age and durability than anything. It is hard to maintain a high level of play once you hit 30 years old at the cornerback position. Historically, the decline for players once you hit 30 can happen very quickly. Prior to 2020, Gilmore was highly durable, but in the last two years, he’s played 19 combined games. So, can a team count on Gilmore, who turns 32 at the start of the season, to play all 17 games? Not to mention, will Gilmore play at a high enough level to warrant around $15 million a year?
Jameis Winston, Quarterback
In what has already been a fascinating offseason on the QB carousel, Winston is a high-profile name that remains available for teams with a need at the game’s most important position. It’s unclear when exactly he would be ready to take the field. Winston played solid football for the Saints this year prior to his injury, but he still feels like a stopgap option at the position rather than a franchise-changer due to his turnover prone nature that we’ve seen far too often. However, these days franchise quarterbacks are in higher demand than oil – with General Managers of teams with an unsolved QB situation understanding that their fate will inevitably rest in the hands of their ability to get production from their starting QB. Of all the remaining free agent QBs, Winston may be the best of the bunch, and that means he’s going to cash in in spite of his knee injury and performance concerns.
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Brandon Scherff, Guard
With Scherff, the concern is all about his health. Since 2018, Scherff has missed time due to Knee, Shoulder, Pectoral, Elbow, and Ankle injuries – making it hard to trust that he’ll be injury-free. Scherff played both 2020 and 2021 on the franchise tag, which reveals that Washington has been delaying inking him to a long-term extension. Given how productive he is when he’s on the field, I’d expect Scherff to be close to a $13-$15 million dollar a year player. For a guard that hasn’t played a full season since 2016, is that really a keen investment?
Allen Robinson, Wide Receiver
Robinson is seeking his third contract in the NFL, and it will likely be with a team other than the Chicago Bears. Coming off a 2021 season where he averaged only 34 receiving yards a game, Spotrac projects him to have a value of $16.3 million per season moving forward. That’s a steep price to pay for a receiver who’s only appeared in one pro bowl and only has one season with over seven touchdowns (2015). Robinson is a good player, and will be a commodity to whomever signs him, but will he return the value of a top-of-the-market wideout? That seems to be an optimistic bet at a position that hasn’t been one of the more profitable positions to shop for in free agency.
Stephon Gilmore, Cornerback
We’ve all seen how highly of a level Gilmore can play at – after all, he was the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year and has been regarded as a top two or three cornerback in the game for five-plus years now. However, him being a risky buy is more about his age and durability than anything. It is hard to maintain a high level of play once you hit 30 years old at the cornerback position. Historically, the decline for players once you hit 30 can happen very quickly. Prior to 2020, Gilmore was highly durable, but in the last two years, he’s played 19 combined games. So, can a team count on Gilmore, who turns 32 at the start of the season, to play all 17 games? Not to mention, will Gilmore play at a high enough level to warrant around $15 million a year?
Jameis Winston, Quarterback
In what has already been a fascinating offseason on the QB carousel, Winston is a high-profile name that remains available for teams with a need at the game’s most important position. It’s unclear when exactly he would be ready to take the field. Winston played solid football for the Saints this year prior to his injury, but he still feels like a stopgap option at the position rather than a franchise-changer due to his turnover prone nature that we’ve seen far too often. However, these days franchise quarterbacks are in higher demand than oil – with General Managers of teams with an unsolved QB situation understanding that their fate will inevitably rest in the hands of their ability to get production from their starting QB. Of all the remaining free agent QBs, Winston may be the best of the bunch, and that means he’s going to cash in in spite of his knee injury and performance concerns.
Jets Global