Sunday, March 8, 2015
Sunday notes: Can the Jets keep Brandon Marshall happy?
By Rich Cimini
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/print?id=49664
A look at what's going on with the New York Jets:
1. Center of attention: I like the Brandon Marshall trade from a value/risk-reward standpoint, but there's one concern: How will he react if (when?) the ball isn't coming his way as often as it did in the past?
Marshall is what the analytics folks like to call a high-volume receiver. Fact: From 2007 to 2014, he was targeted a league-high 1,241 times. The next closest receiver was Larry Fitzgerald (1,172). For the most part, Marshall has been part of pass-oriented offenses. In nine seasons, with the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears, he played on only two offenses that finished with as many (or more) rushing attempts than pass attempts.
In case you didn't notice, the Jets emphasized the run under Rex Ryan, and it's hard to imagine them straying too far from that personality as long as Geno Smith is the quarterback. So what happens when Marshall doesn't see his usual 10 balls per game? He has a reputation for being a "me" guy and we know he's not afraid to call out his quarterback. Should be interesting.
2. One man's treasure ...: The Marshall trade involved two first-time general managers with two different visions for their team. The Bears' Ryan Pace was so eager to unload the talented, but controversial Marshall that he conducted a fire sale, giving him away for a fifth-round pick. The Jets' Mike Maccagnan was more than happy to bring the volatile receiver into his new program.
Each team had its reasons for doing the deal. The Bears, coming off a dysfunctional season, are looking to improve their locker-room chemistry. The Jets have good chemistry, but they need playmakers. So there you have it.
3. Houston, we've got no room: Before the trade, the Jets were considering Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson, but only as a late free-agency option, perhaps post-draft. Marshall's arrival changes that. Johnson, on the trading block, is expected to be released.
4. On thin ice: This hardly qualifies as a revelation, but the Jets are expected to release Percy Harvin as soon as the Marshall trade becomes official, which won't be until 4 p.m. Tuesday at the earliest -- the start of the league year. If they didn't want to pay him $10.5 million this year to be a starting receiver, there's no reason to think they'll pay it to a No. 3. From all indications, he's not interested in a pay cut. Harvin is a terrific kickoff returner and a dangerous situational receiver, but he's not a traditional No. 1. They'll save $10.5 million in cap space by cutting him.
5. Bronco alumni: Marshall will join another ex-Bronco in the Jets' receiving corps, Eric Decker. (They never actually played together in Denver, missing each other by a year.) The popular school of thought is that Marshall's arrival will allow Decker to return to his familiar No. 2 role, where he's supposedly better suited, but the folks at numberFire.com did some number crunching and have a different viewpoint. They consider both top-25 receivers.
6. Waiting on Darrelle: The NFL, especially the New York and Boston markets, will be held hostage in the coming days by Darrelle Revis, who likely will return to the New England Patriots or sign a mega-deal with the Jets. If the Patriots fail to renegotiate with him by Tuesday, they'll probably cut him to avoid a cap-busting, $20 million option for 2015. And then he'd be a free agent, setting the stage for a Jets-Patriots battle.
One AFC executive predicted Revis will fetch a three-year, $50 million contract. He probably won't get that much from the Patriots, who don't deflate when it comes to negotiating contracts. They're hardball all the way, expecting their stars to accept less than market in exchange for the joy of being part of the Patriot Way. By contrast, the Jets, perhaps motivated by their desire to stick it to their archrival and win the offseason, probably will overpay for the almost-30 cornerback.
Will Revis take Woody Johnson's millions or accept a lifetime membership to Robert Kraft's fraternity?
7. Draft plan: With Marshall in the fold, the Jets probably won't draft a receiver with the sixth pick, so scratch Amari Cooper and Kevin White. Assuming they sign a cornerback or two in free agency, the draft focus will be on a pass-rusher or maybe a quarterback, if they fall in love with Marcus Mariota.
This is a deep draft for edge-rushers; you could see five in the top 10 picks. One of them, Nebraska's Randy Gregory, made some news at ESPN. While taping a "Sports Science" segment with John Brenkus, Gregory became the first defensive player to knock the head off the tackling dummy. So there's that.
8. Stat of the week: This will help explain why the Jets traded for Marshall. They haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Jerricho Cotchery in 2007, tied for the third-longest active drought in the league. The Oakland Raiders (Randy Moss) and Jacksonville Jaguars (Jimmy Smith) haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver since 2005.
9. Tall tales: With Marshall (6-foot-4) and Decker (6-foot-3), the Jets will have one of the bigger starting tandems in the league. In 2014, only three teams had two 6-foot-3 receivers start at least 12 games -- the Bears (Marshall and Alshon Jeffery), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson) and the Arizona Cardinals (Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd).
10. Weird coincidence: It's funny that the Marshall trade came down on the same day the Jets signed David Harris to a contract extension. They were linked in speculation in 2009, when the Jets were trying to trade for Marshall before the start of the season. In return, the Broncos wanted Harris. The Jets refused to part with their young middle linebacker. Now they're teammates.
Sunday notes: Can the Jets keep Brandon Marshall happy?
By Rich Cimini
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/print?id=49664
A look at what's going on with the New York Jets:
1. Center of attention: I like the Brandon Marshall trade from a value/risk-reward standpoint, but there's one concern: How will he react if (when?) the ball isn't coming his way as often as it did in the past?
Marshall is what the analytics folks like to call a high-volume receiver. Fact: From 2007 to 2014, he was targeted a league-high 1,241 times. The next closest receiver was Larry Fitzgerald (1,172). For the most part, Marshall has been part of pass-oriented offenses. In nine seasons, with the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears, he played on only two offenses that finished with as many (or more) rushing attempts than pass attempts.
In case you didn't notice, the Jets emphasized the run under Rex Ryan, and it's hard to imagine them straying too far from that personality as long as Geno Smith is the quarterback. So what happens when Marshall doesn't see his usual 10 balls per game? He has a reputation for being a "me" guy and we know he's not afraid to call out his quarterback. Should be interesting.
2. One man's treasure ...: The Marshall trade involved two first-time general managers with two different visions for their team. The Bears' Ryan Pace was so eager to unload the talented, but controversial Marshall that he conducted a fire sale, giving him away for a fifth-round pick. The Jets' Mike Maccagnan was more than happy to bring the volatile receiver into his new program.
Each team had its reasons for doing the deal. The Bears, coming off a dysfunctional season, are looking to improve their locker-room chemistry. The Jets have good chemistry, but they need playmakers. So there you have it.
3. Houston, we've got no room: Before the trade, the Jets were considering Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson, but only as a late free-agency option, perhaps post-draft. Marshall's arrival changes that. Johnson, on the trading block, is expected to be released.
4. On thin ice: This hardly qualifies as a revelation, but the Jets are expected to release Percy Harvin as soon as the Marshall trade becomes official, which won't be until 4 p.m. Tuesday at the earliest -- the start of the league year. If they didn't want to pay him $10.5 million this year to be a starting receiver, there's no reason to think they'll pay it to a No. 3. From all indications, he's not interested in a pay cut. Harvin is a terrific kickoff returner and a dangerous situational receiver, but he's not a traditional No. 1. They'll save $10.5 million in cap space by cutting him.
5. Bronco alumni: Marshall will join another ex-Bronco in the Jets' receiving corps, Eric Decker. (They never actually played together in Denver, missing each other by a year.) The popular school of thought is that Marshall's arrival will allow Decker to return to his familiar No. 2 role, where he's supposedly better suited, but the folks at numberFire.com did some number crunching and have a different viewpoint. They consider both top-25 receivers.
6. Waiting on Darrelle: The NFL, especially the New York and Boston markets, will be held hostage in the coming days by Darrelle Revis, who likely will return to the New England Patriots or sign a mega-deal with the Jets. If the Patriots fail to renegotiate with him by Tuesday, they'll probably cut him to avoid a cap-busting, $20 million option for 2015. And then he'd be a free agent, setting the stage for a Jets-Patriots battle.
One AFC executive predicted Revis will fetch a three-year, $50 million contract. He probably won't get that much from the Patriots, who don't deflate when it comes to negotiating contracts. They're hardball all the way, expecting their stars to accept less than market in exchange for the joy of being part of the Patriot Way. By contrast, the Jets, perhaps motivated by their desire to stick it to their archrival and win the offseason, probably will overpay for the almost-30 cornerback.
Will Revis take Woody Johnson's millions or accept a lifetime membership to Robert Kraft's fraternity?
7. Draft plan: With Marshall in the fold, the Jets probably won't draft a receiver with the sixth pick, so scratch Amari Cooper and Kevin White. Assuming they sign a cornerback or two in free agency, the draft focus will be on a pass-rusher or maybe a quarterback, if they fall in love with Marcus Mariota.
This is a deep draft for edge-rushers; you could see five in the top 10 picks. One of them, Nebraska's Randy Gregory, made some news at ESPN. While taping a "Sports Science" segment with John Brenkus, Gregory became the first defensive player to knock the head off the tackling dummy. So there's that.
8. Stat of the week: This will help explain why the Jets traded for Marshall. They haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Jerricho Cotchery in 2007, tied for the third-longest active drought in the league. The Oakland Raiders (Randy Moss) and Jacksonville Jaguars (Jimmy Smith) haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver since 2005.
9. Tall tales: With Marshall (6-foot-4) and Decker (6-foot-3), the Jets will have one of the bigger starting tandems in the league. In 2014, only three teams had two 6-foot-3 receivers start at least 12 games -- the Bears (Marshall and Alshon Jeffery), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson) and the Arizona Cardinals (Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd).
10. Weird coincidence: It's funny that the Marshall trade came down on the same day the Jets signed David Harris to a contract extension. They were linked in speculation in 2009, when the Jets were trying to trade for Marshall before the start of the season. In return, the Broncos wanted Harris. The Jets refused to part with their young middle linebacker. Now they're teammates.
