I'll do BEST PICKS for all seven rounds, but I'll stop doing WORST PICKS after RD 3 because after that its unfair, too many variables at play. I will also do multiple BEST PICKS after RD 4, and for the sake of brevity eschew the comments.
So lets get started ...
ROUND 1
Best Pick: Leonard Williams, DL, Southern Cal -- 6th Overall to the Jets
When the consensus "best player in the draft" falls to you like manna from heaven at 6, a guy who is conjuring up names like 'Reggie White', and you resist the temptation to reach for a bigger need, you won the first round and everybody else is vying for second place.
Worst Pick: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M -- 21st Overall to the Bengals
Did John Idzik make this pick? Ogbuehi was overrated to begin with in my view, for example last year I saw Dee Ford beat him like a drum off the edge to bring down Manziel and clinch a game the Aggies absolutely had to have to keep their national championship dreams alive, but when you add in that he is coming off a torn ACL and has very limited tape at LT (played mostly RT at College Station, where they have Andre Smith), this too me was the most inexplicable pick in RD 1 and there was not even a close second. BTW they grabbed another OT in RD 2 (Jake Fisher) who is better than Ogbuehi in my view, which further highlights the folly of this selection even if its true that they couldn't know Fisher would slide.
ROUND 2
Best Pick: Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State -- 7th Pick in RD 2 (39 Overall) to the Bears
I could have went Jake Fisher here, who was a steal for the Bengals where they grabbed him, but the Ogbuehi Pick downgrades the value of this pick for me. Goldman was one of my favorite players in this draft and I was happy when the Patriots passed at 32 and opted for Malcom Brown instead. Don't misunderstand me, Brown is a very good player, its just that I look at Goldman and I see a young Vince Wilfork, and I didn't want the Jets dealing with that kind of immovable force in the middle for another ten years! That said, the Bears are moving to a 3-4 and they needed a NT to anchor their defense. They were exceedingly fortunate that Goldman fell to them here and wise to snatch him up.
Worst Pick: Jordan Richards, S, Stanford -- 32nd Pick in RD 2 (64 Overall) to the Patriots
Some people didn't even have a draftable grade on Richards, at best he was viewed as a potential late round pick, so Dan Jeremiah was being generous when he said he felt like the Patriots drafted Richards at least two rounds too early. This franchise is very fortunate to have a HC who can consistently overcome dumb draft picks like this one and put mediocre players in a position to succeed. If any other organization drafted like this, well, just ask John Idzik what would happen.
ROUND 3
Best Pick: Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State -- 5th Pick in RD 3 (69 Overall) to the Seahawks
There were a few strong candidates for this spot, starting with Jaelen Strong and ending with Paul Dawson who went to the Bengals with the last comp pick in RD 3, but I believe that when we judge this draft a year from now we will be talking about Tyler Lockett as one of the most feared Slot WR's in the league. I have to echo what I said about Goldman, I'm glad the Patriots didn't take this kid at the end of RD 2 instead of that wasted pick on Richards. The way NE/Brady utilizes their Slot WR's, this kid would have been a nightmare to deal with. Seattle doesn't get the same kind of production from their Receivers so I'm worried that may devalue Lockett's production. Seattle paid handsomely to trade all the way up the board for Lockett, but they snagged a playmaker who can take their offense to another level, if they get him enough touches.
Worst Pick: Geneo Grissom, DE/OLB, Oklahoma -- 33rd Pick in RD 3 (97 Overall) to the Patriots
I know it seems like I'm picking on the Patriots because I hate them, and make no mistake about it, I do hate them, but I've been a draftnik for most of my life, since before the internet and before it was cool, when I had to call sports phone and scramble like crazy just to find out who the Jets selected in each round, so I take this stuff serious and I completely detach my personal feelings when trying to evaluate these picks. It just so happens that the Patriots draft like shit. This and Richards are the kind of picks that got John Idzik fired, but again, there is not another coach in the world who can overcome idiot draft picks the way Bill Belichick can, and I hate the guy, but again, I have to be honest about it. Anyway, Grissom was essentially a part time player at Oklahoma and he didn't exactly set the world on fire as a situational pass rusher either. Another guy who carried a late round grade on most boards.
ROUND 4
Best Pick: Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor -- 4th Pick in RD 4 (103 Overall) to the Jets
Some people will argue its T.J. Clemmings because he was widely perceived as a late 1 or early 2, but as I said many times leading up to the draft, I thought he was grossly overrated and even predicted that lesser regarded OT's like Donovan Smith would be drafted ahead of him. Am I surprised he fell all the way to RD 4? Mildly, but by no means am I shocked. Petty, on the other hand, is a kid I lobbied for in the build-up to the draft, consistently ranked him as the 3rd QB in this class on my Big Board, and even went so far as to project him as an early 2 where I believed he might be a consideration for the Jets. To land this kid in RD 4, in my view, was a steal, and the Jets were smart to trade up one spot and block other teams from leaping them.
Once upon a time the Jets loved Brett Favre, couldn't find a way to move up a few spots and grab him, got leaped by the Falcons and watched Atlanta take Favre one or two picks ahead of them in RD 2. By no means am I saying Bryce Petty is Brett Favre, but when you like a QB and you don't already have a FQB, make sure you get your man, and thats what Mac did here, at the measly expense of a 7th RD Pick.
As for the player, yes the learning curve is steep, but this kid has good size and he was arguably the best thrower in the draft. Make no mistake about it, this kid has the kind of arm talent you look for in a franchise QB, particularly in the Meadowlands and northeast where you have to spin it with velocity to cut thru those swirling winds. He's also displayed terrific accuracy on his intermediate and deep routes, not just the underneath stuff the way so many college (and pro) QB's pad their stats. So while we are talking about a project here from a mental standpoint, with an NFL offense being so much more complex than the one or two read system he used at Baylor, so it might take a year or two to properly develop him, IMO the ceiling is very high for this player because he physically has all of the tools to become a franchise QB, and he has the passion to work for it.
ROUND 5
BEST PICKS:
Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears -- (Traded to the NY Jets for the 6th Pick in RD 5, 142 Overall)
Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson -- 1st Pick in RD 5 (137 Overall) to the Falcons
David Cobb, RB, Minnesota -- 2nd Pick in RD 5 (138 Overall) to the Titans
Rashad Greene, WR, FSU -- 3rd Pick in RD 5 (139 Overall) to the Jaguars
Ben Heeney, ILB, Kansas -- 4th Pick in RD 5 (140 Overall) to the Raiders
Davis Tull, OLB, Tennessee Chattanooga -- 12th Pick in RD 5 (148 Overall) to the Saints
ROUND 6
BEST PICKS:
Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State -- 4th Pick in RD 6 (180 Overall) to the Jaguars
Tyrus Thompson, OT, Oklahoma -- 9th Pick in RD 6 (185 Overall) to the Vikings
Darren Waller, WR/TE, Georgia Tech -- 28th Pick in RD 6 (204 Overall) to the Ravens
ROUND 7
BEST PICKS:
Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams -- (Traded to the NY Jets for the 7th Pick in RD 7, 224 Overall)
Deon Simon, NT, Northwestern State -- 8th Pick in RD 7 (225 Overall) to the Jets
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon -- 24th Pick in RD 7 (241 Overall) to the Browns
Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary -- 28th Pick in RD 7 (245 Overall) to the Titans
So lets get started ...
ROUND 1
Best Pick: Leonard Williams, DL, Southern Cal -- 6th Overall to the Jets
When the consensus "best player in the draft" falls to you like manna from heaven at 6, a guy who is conjuring up names like 'Reggie White', and you resist the temptation to reach for a bigger need, you won the first round and everybody else is vying for second place.
Worst Pick: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M -- 21st Overall to the Bengals
Did John Idzik make this pick? Ogbuehi was overrated to begin with in my view, for example last year I saw Dee Ford beat him like a drum off the edge to bring down Manziel and clinch a game the Aggies absolutely had to have to keep their national championship dreams alive, but when you add in that he is coming off a torn ACL and has very limited tape at LT (played mostly RT at College Station, where they have Andre Smith), this too me was the most inexplicable pick in RD 1 and there was not even a close second. BTW they grabbed another OT in RD 2 (Jake Fisher) who is better than Ogbuehi in my view, which further highlights the folly of this selection even if its true that they couldn't know Fisher would slide.
ROUND 2
Best Pick: Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State -- 7th Pick in RD 2 (39 Overall) to the Bears
I could have went Jake Fisher here, who was a steal for the Bengals where they grabbed him, but the Ogbuehi Pick downgrades the value of this pick for me. Goldman was one of my favorite players in this draft and I was happy when the Patriots passed at 32 and opted for Malcom Brown instead. Don't misunderstand me, Brown is a very good player, its just that I look at Goldman and I see a young Vince Wilfork, and I didn't want the Jets dealing with that kind of immovable force in the middle for another ten years! That said, the Bears are moving to a 3-4 and they needed a NT to anchor their defense. They were exceedingly fortunate that Goldman fell to them here and wise to snatch him up.
Worst Pick: Jordan Richards, S, Stanford -- 32nd Pick in RD 2 (64 Overall) to the Patriots
Some people didn't even have a draftable grade on Richards, at best he was viewed as a potential late round pick, so Dan Jeremiah was being generous when he said he felt like the Patriots drafted Richards at least two rounds too early. This franchise is very fortunate to have a HC who can consistently overcome dumb draft picks like this one and put mediocre players in a position to succeed. If any other organization drafted like this, well, just ask John Idzik what would happen.
ROUND 3
Best Pick: Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State -- 5th Pick in RD 3 (69 Overall) to the Seahawks
There were a few strong candidates for this spot, starting with Jaelen Strong and ending with Paul Dawson who went to the Bengals with the last comp pick in RD 3, but I believe that when we judge this draft a year from now we will be talking about Tyler Lockett as one of the most feared Slot WR's in the league. I have to echo what I said about Goldman, I'm glad the Patriots didn't take this kid at the end of RD 2 instead of that wasted pick on Richards. The way NE/Brady utilizes their Slot WR's, this kid would have been a nightmare to deal with. Seattle doesn't get the same kind of production from their Receivers so I'm worried that may devalue Lockett's production. Seattle paid handsomely to trade all the way up the board for Lockett, but they snagged a playmaker who can take their offense to another level, if they get him enough touches.
Worst Pick: Geneo Grissom, DE/OLB, Oklahoma -- 33rd Pick in RD 3 (97 Overall) to the Patriots
I know it seems like I'm picking on the Patriots because I hate them, and make no mistake about it, I do hate them, but I've been a draftnik for most of my life, since before the internet and before it was cool, when I had to call sports phone and scramble like crazy just to find out who the Jets selected in each round, so I take this stuff serious and I completely detach my personal feelings when trying to evaluate these picks. It just so happens that the Patriots draft like shit. This and Richards are the kind of picks that got John Idzik fired, but again, there is not another coach in the world who can overcome idiot draft picks the way Bill Belichick can, and I hate the guy, but again, I have to be honest about it. Anyway, Grissom was essentially a part time player at Oklahoma and he didn't exactly set the world on fire as a situational pass rusher either. Another guy who carried a late round grade on most boards.
ROUND 4
Best Pick: Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor -- 4th Pick in RD 4 (103 Overall) to the Jets
Some people will argue its T.J. Clemmings because he was widely perceived as a late 1 or early 2, but as I said many times leading up to the draft, I thought he was grossly overrated and even predicted that lesser regarded OT's like Donovan Smith would be drafted ahead of him. Am I surprised he fell all the way to RD 4? Mildly, but by no means am I shocked. Petty, on the other hand, is a kid I lobbied for in the build-up to the draft, consistently ranked him as the 3rd QB in this class on my Big Board, and even went so far as to project him as an early 2 where I believed he might be a consideration for the Jets. To land this kid in RD 4, in my view, was a steal, and the Jets were smart to trade up one spot and block other teams from leaping them.
Once upon a time the Jets loved Brett Favre, couldn't find a way to move up a few spots and grab him, got leaped by the Falcons and watched Atlanta take Favre one or two picks ahead of them in RD 2. By no means am I saying Bryce Petty is Brett Favre, but when you like a QB and you don't already have a FQB, make sure you get your man, and thats what Mac did here, at the measly expense of a 7th RD Pick.
As for the player, yes the learning curve is steep, but this kid has good size and he was arguably the best thrower in the draft. Make no mistake about it, this kid has the kind of arm talent you look for in a franchise QB, particularly in the Meadowlands and northeast where you have to spin it with velocity to cut thru those swirling winds. He's also displayed terrific accuracy on his intermediate and deep routes, not just the underneath stuff the way so many college (and pro) QB's pad their stats. So while we are talking about a project here from a mental standpoint, with an NFL offense being so much more complex than the one or two read system he used at Baylor, so it might take a year or two to properly develop him, IMO the ceiling is very high for this player because he physically has all of the tools to become a franchise QB, and he has the passion to work for it.
ROUND 5
BEST PICKS:
Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears -- (Traded to the NY Jets for the 6th Pick in RD 5, 142 Overall)
Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson -- 1st Pick in RD 5 (137 Overall) to the Falcons
David Cobb, RB, Minnesota -- 2nd Pick in RD 5 (138 Overall) to the Titans
Rashad Greene, WR, FSU -- 3rd Pick in RD 5 (139 Overall) to the Jaguars
Ben Heeney, ILB, Kansas -- 4th Pick in RD 5 (140 Overall) to the Raiders
Davis Tull, OLB, Tennessee Chattanooga -- 12th Pick in RD 5 (148 Overall) to the Saints
ROUND 6
BEST PICKS:
Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State -- 4th Pick in RD 6 (180 Overall) to the Jaguars
Tyrus Thompson, OT, Oklahoma -- 9th Pick in RD 6 (185 Overall) to the Vikings
Darren Waller, WR/TE, Georgia Tech -- 28th Pick in RD 6 (204 Overall) to the Ravens
ROUND 7
BEST PICKS:
Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams -- (Traded to the NY Jets for the 7th Pick in RD 7, 224 Overall)
Deon Simon, NT, Northwestern State -- 8th Pick in RD 7 (225 Overall) to the Jets
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon -- 24th Pick in RD 7 (241 Overall) to the Browns
Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary -- 28th Pick in RD 7 (245 Overall) to the Titans
