Increased role for Jeremy Kerley could impact Jets' draft decision

[Superman55]

A trade back team to think about is the Rams. I wonder if they come up the board for White or Cooper. We could slide back, grab thei 2 and still get Dupree. Having 2 #2s would give us the ammo to jump back into Rd 1 for a Gurley, Perriman, Gordon, or Strong. Coming out of the draft with Dupree and Gurley would be pretty exciting.

 

[Jet Setter]

A trade back team to think about is the Rams. I wonder if they come up the board for White or Cooper. We could slide back, grab thei 2 and still get Dupree. Having 2 #2s would give us the ammo to jump back into Rd 1 for a Gurley, Perriman, Gordon, or Strong. Coming out of the draft with Dupree and Gurley would be pretty exciting.

The risk would be similar even though two picks higher than Cleveland's and you could miss out on those pass rushers that you might covet. It's a creative way to get two impactful players. I think Ayaja is a pretty complete package who should be there with our 2nd round pick. He's arguably the best receiving RB in his class and can run between the tackles and show elusiveness to the edges. I like him a lot but think the Jets are going to value someone like Dorsett or Lockett even higher with that 2nd round pick to add needed speed to the offense. To me, seeing their serious interest in Karlos Williams (as a 3rd round prospect) could be telling in their strategy. We'll be doing a lot of dot-connecting from here on out.

 

[sg3]

IMHO the tradeback would only be an.option if 1)Mariota falls to #6 and 2) some Dan Snyder or Mike Tannenbaum-like Big Splash artist is willing to give us an RG3 type overvalued treasure trove of draft picks value to make the move. Certainly should not be done for any deal involving mid 30s cap killing declining QBs like Brees or Rivers that have been bandied about.

 

[jetfandreamer]

New rumor is the SF 49ers want Cooper and would have to trade up obviously they pick 15

 

[AFA2017]

New rumor is the SF 49ers want Cooper and would have to trade up obviously they pick 15

I would not trade back to [URL=http://nyjetsfanatics.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 5[/URL] , but if Clevland offered there 2 #1 's to move up to #6 . I would listen and hope to sweeten the trade a bit more in our favor.

 

[HYATT™]

Speaking of Beasley, I found a disturbing statistic that gave me flashbacks of Vernon Gholston and that was the number of tackles made. I recall reading Ohio State forums where the fans admitted that Vernon was only interested in getting sacks and wasn't a complete player. Here are comparisons of Gholston and the top prospects at 3-4 OLB in the top half of the draft:

Vernon Ghoston - 37 tackles 14 sacks
Vic Beasley - 34 tackles 12 sacks
Alvin Dupree - 74 tackles 7.5 sacks
Dante Fowler - 60 tackles 8.5 sacks
Shane Ray - 65 tackles 14.5 sacks
Randy Gregory - 54 tackles 7 sacks

And while statistics aren't everything sometimes they paint a picture of the type of player you have. Keep in mind that sacks count as a tackle so aside from the sacks, Beasley got only 22 tackles in 13 games. He was either overpursuing too often on pass rushes or getting mauled by LT's in college. That's a red flag to me when comparing with others here and picking at #6 , the famous position the Jets selected Gholston with.

Young grasshopper is starting to see the wisdom which is HYATT™'s in-depth analysis at work in choosing "Bud" Dupree as the best use of the #6 pick in this draft, for the Jets.
College sack stats are VERY misleading.
Sacking the QB is all fine&dandy, but in the end you want a COMPLETE player in the front 7, not some kid chasing down tackles he missed in the backfield, 10 yards upfield.

 

[Football51]

Young grasshopper is starting to see the wisdom which is HYATT™'s in-depth analysis at work in choosing "Bud" Dupree as the best use of the #6 pick in this draft, for the Jets.
College sack stats are VERY misleading.
Sacking the QB is all fine&dandy, but in the end you want a COMPLETE player in the front 7, not some kid chasing down tackles he missed in the backfield, 10 yards upfield.

Hyatt, what's your opinion on Ray and his ability to transition to the pro level?

 

[HYATT™]

Hyatt, what's your opinion on Ray and his ability to transition to the pro level?

Ray is a very hard player to read, for HYATT™, for some reason.
Constantly going back & forth on him.
Could be another JP-P or could be another kid like that one BAL drafted in 2010 at Rd 2-#43 - (Sergio Kindle) - that came into the league with a fractured patella, then fell down the stairs in his own home and broke his crown, and eventually washed out of the league without ever making a significant play.
As of November 2014, Kindle is selling automobiles in Austin, Texas at Covert Buick GMC.

Shane Ray has a significant first step quickness & plays with violent emotionalism, but from there it's downhill.
In a LB what you want is read & react skills - something the 3-cone and short shuttle drills assess.
His numbers in those 2 drills are a disaster. (7.71s 3-cone, 4.58s shuttle.)
For comparison's sake, Bruce Irvin (SEA) put up a 6.70s 3-cone and 4.03s shuttle - some of the best in his draft and it's proven out in his play.

A comparison was made to Chris Clemons, (SEA->JAX), who's parade through now 7 NFL teams since 2003 speaks to a player good enough to give you more than just bench talent but not quite good enough to be a full-time starter at the red or blue chip levels, unless yer bench suxz badly to begin with.

HYATT™ sees Ray as a high to middle Rd 2 value pick but a disappointment if taken in the upper 2/3rds of Rd 1.
#1 worry - 245# OLB with shitty speed.
Maybe as a 4-3 SAM, but not as a pass rush specialist AND run stopping 3-4 OLB that has to fall into coverage on occasion.

 

[Football51]

He was my least favorite of the edge rushers. I just couldn't figure out why Daniel Jeremiah has him as the 6th best player overall in the draft, and Mayock has him as the #2 edge rusher. They both said that his workout numbers stink, but the tape doesn't lie. Like you said, I think he'll be a liability against the run, and I feel that OT's at this level will throw him around like Aaron Maybin.

 

[ucrenegade]

it's dupree, followed by fowler for me, I am not sold on any of the others in the upper half of the first round.

and i would put eli harold as my third pick

54 tackles 7 sacks

 

[HYATT™]

F/w/i/W, this is HYATT™'s OPINION on the Kerley, #6 pick, WRs, and OLB pass rushers - parts of which HYATT™ has posted previously.

At #6, if Mariota is available, UNFORTUNATELY, the Jets simply MUST draft him.
He is the best available player at that position, but he is NOT a Day 1 starting QB.
Expect a 1-year delay before Mariota learns how to play under Center in the NFL & do not expect a Super Bowl franchise QB in Rd 2.
In all likelihood, Mariota is Red Dalton 2.0 with a better arm and a little more speed, which is enough for a 2nd tier NFL QB, given the lack of franchise QBs & franchise QB prospects coming out, these days.

If Mariota is gone, (more likely scenario), the Jets have 3 problem areas;

1.) Pass rusher OLB - need (2), will get one, probably, but have to draft 2 as insurance.
"Bud" Dupree is HYATT™'s highest rated OLB prospect for the Jets, (not necessarily for other teams), and Eli Harold is HYATT™'s #2 rated OLB pick.
Dupree will not last long. so the "trade back & still get Dupree" option is probably nonsense with #7 CHI (converting to a 3-4), #8 ATL, & the #9 Jints picking right after the Jets.

Eli Harold will also go higher than currently projected (currently top of Rd 2, bottom of Rd 1, immediately after free-falling Gregory & well before #42 Danielle Hunter, who has injury baggage).

The only way the "trade back" scenario works is if Harold is target #1 at OLB, in which case the Jets could conceivably drop down far enough to pick up an extra high Rd 2 pick and still land Harold around #20-ish.
Trades for high Rd 2 picks from 20-ish picking teams limits available trade options, however.
(The run on 3-4 OLBs ends after Dupree for a little bit, unless those 3 teams immediately following the Jets AND #12 CLE, #13 NOS, #15 SFO, & #17 SDC, do not wish to risk missing out on a premium 3-4 pass rusher.)
This is the quandary, do the Jets risk coming up empty by passing on Dupree and trading back too far, only to miss out on Harold too?

Ideally the Jets make 2 deals, dropping back to just after the #9 NYG to St.L's #10 pick, then, if any higher ranked 3-4 OLB and/or Eli Harold is still there, they can risk trading back a little further, depending on scuttlebutt on the next 10-ish teams' likely selections.

That strategy has the added advantage of 1 extra decent pick (3 total) over the "2-fer" single trade back to a 20-ish spot - which must be weighed against the possibility of not getting a premier pass rusher at all & having to waste picks on much less desirable ordinary JAG 3-4 OLBs.

2.) OL - unfortunately no Rd 1 OL talent is going to be in this draft and that includes the 2-3 highest regarded LT prospects. Iowa's Shcherff is the top-rated LT & OL player in this draft, (and PROBABLY ends up playing RT for years), but in comparison to past draft prospects at the position, falls woefully short on talent when viewed against players like Joe Staley, Joe Thomas, or a number of LTs taken later in the draft who surprised their teams, (like David Bakhtiari the Rd 4-#109 Packers selection in 2013).
In HYATT™'s OPINION, OL is not a value pick at #6, but depending on what holes are viewed as critical & OL is seen as more desperate than HYATT™ believes, the Jets can get TREMENDOUS value by trading back for 2 high picks later on & using one to take a best available OL player.

3.) WR is still an open consideration at #6, but only as a 3rd priority.
Yes, the Jets need to seriously consider the future of Marshall in NJ and get a future TRUE #1 WR prospect into the pipeline, but it's not the pressing 2015 NEED that it was before the Marshall trade.
Decker is and will remain a solid "Z" flanker/split end player who can fill the slot at times, but he is no TRUE #1 WR, if such distinctions are being drawn.

Kerley is a SERVICEABLE #3/"Z" flanker but not nearly in the same class as Decker & not really a good slot receiver at all.
The Jets do not actually have a good slot receiver if Decker is playing outside & only Amaro to go across the middle shallow otherwise.

Considering those 2 facts, the Jets COULD be in the market for one of the more highly ranked but shorter and faster elusive slot receivers rather than a future TRUE #1 WR prospect - in THIS draft, and STILL land a potential future TRUE #1 WR prospect in late Rd 3 or early Rd 4.
There are plenty to choose from this year, just like last year's #90 Moncrief, #91 Brown, #106 Ellington, & #118 Bryant.

CB aging is still another issue to be discussed, but this isn't a CB-rich draft, so HYATT™ will save that discussion for some other thread.

 

[BlindsideD'Brick]

IMHO the tradeback would only be an.option if 1)Mariota falls to #6 and 2) some Dan Snyder or Mike Tannenbaum-like Big Splash artist is willing to give us an RG3 type overvalued treasure trove of draft picks value to make the move. Certainly should not be done for any deal involving mid 30s cap killing declining QBs like Brees or Rivers that have been bandied about.

There's an interesting theory regarding Rivers/Brees and the Jets. Basically, the Jets have a lot of good veterans on this team around 30 years old. So the "window of opportunity" for players like Revis, Marshall, and Cromartie is about three years. Why not bring in an established veteran QB with a proven track record to take a shot at a SB?

I'm not saying I necessarlily agree with it, but it's an interesting thought. I think both Rivers and Brees are still good QB's, and better than anything we've got. It would be a three year "all in" scenario. And it could win the Jets a ring.

 

[Jet Setter]

Ray is a very hard player to read, for HYATT™, for some reason.
Constantly going back & forth on him.
Could be another JP-P or could be another kid like that one BAL drafted in 2010 at Rd 2-#43 - (Sergio Kindle) - that came into the league with a fractured patella, then fell down the stairs in his own home and broke his crown, and eventually washed out of the league without ever making a significant play.
As of November 2014, Kindle is selling automobiles in Austin, Texas at Covert Buick GMC.

Shane Ray has a significant first step quickness & plays with violent emotionalism, but from there it's downhill.
In a LB what you want is read & react skills - something the 3-cone and short shuttle drills assess.
His numbers in those 2 drills are a disaster. (7.71s 3-cone, 4.58s shuttle.)
For comparison's sake, Bruce Irvin (SEA) put up a 6.70s 3-cone and 4.03s shuttle - some of the best in his draft and it's proven out in his play.

A comparison was made to Chris Clemons, (SEA->JAX), who's parade through now 7 NFL teams since 2003 speaks to a player good enough to give you more than just bench talent but not quite good enough to be a full-time starter at the red or blue chip levels, unless yer bench suxz badly to begin with.

HYATT™ sees Ray as a high to middle Rd 2 value pick but a disappointment if taken in the upper 2/3rds of Rd 1.
#1 worry - 245# OLB with shitty speed.
Maybe as a 4-3 SAM, but not as a pass rush specialist AND run stopping 3-4 OLB that has to fall into coverage on occasion.

All you need to do is watch his tape. He lacks athleticism and has one-directional, choppy moves. Not fluid and has feasted on college tackles with his superior strength. He is a total hustle guy but his lacking range of motion will limit him to a handful of effort sacks in the pros. He won't be able to throw NFL tackles around at his weight. I agree that he is not worthy of top 10 mention. On top of that, there's an uneasy feeling I get about him that tells me he's in love with being an angry, almost thug figure. But maybe that's just me. Since Hernandez, it's something to watch for and this is a #6 pick and if it were me, I wouldn't take a chance on him and look elsewhere for all the reasons mentioned.

 

[Jet Setter]

Young grasshopper is starting to see the wisdom which is HYATT™'s in-depth analysis at work in choosing "Bud" Dupree as the best use of the #6 pick in this draft, for the Jets.
College sack stats are VERY misleading.
Sacking the QB is all fine&dandy, but in the end you want a COMPLETE player in the front 7, not some kid chasing down tackles he missed in the backfield, 10 yards upfield.

I'm not your grasshopper pal and I've been on the Dupree bandwagon if you've noticed my earlier posts. I have Fowler neck-and-neck with Gregory right behind both. I'm down on Beasley and especially Ray.

Another collegiate stat is with Justin Houston:

67 tackles 10 sacks

It's about the athleticism, strength and ability to get those sacks where they can be groomed and taught the nuances to develop better pass rushing moves. I think Fowler and Dupree most closely align in their skillsets with Houston coming out of college. Gregory already has the moves, he needs more bulk and the willpower to lay off something that can wind up costing him tens of millions of dollars.

 

[Jet Setter]

F/w/i/W, this is HYATT™'s OPINION on the Kerley, #6 pick, WRs, and OLB pass rushers - parts of which HYATT™ has posted previously.

At #6, if Mariota is available, UNFORTUNATELY, the Jets simply MUST draft him.
He is the best available player at that position, but he is NOT a Day 1 starting QB.
Expect a 1-year delay before Mariota learns how to play under Center in the NFL & do not expect a Super Bowl franchise QB in Rd 2.
In all likelihood, Mariota is Red Dalton 2.0 with a better arm and a little more speed, which is enough for a 2nd tier NFL QB, given the lack of franchise QBs & franchise QB prospects coming out, these days.

If Mariota is gone, (more likely scenario), the Jets have 3 problem areas;

1.) Pass rusher OLB - need (2), will get one, probably, but have to draft 2 as insurance.
"Bud" Dupree is HYATT™'s highest rated OLB prospect for the Jets, (not necessarily for other teams), and Eli Harold is HYATT™'s #2 rated OLB pick.
Dupree will not last long. so the "trade back & still get Dupree" option is probably nonsense with #7 CHI (converting to a 3-4), #8 ATL, & the #9 Jints picking right after the Jets.

Eli Harold will also go higher than currently projected (currently top of Rd 2, bottom of Rd 1, immediately after free-falling Gregory & well before #42 Danielle Hunter, who has injury baggage).

The only way the "trade back" scenario works is if Harold is target #1 at OLB, in which case the Jets could conceivably drop down far enough to pick up an extra high Rd 2 pick and still land Harold around #20-ish.
Trades for high Rd 2 picks from 20-ish picking teams limits available trade options, however.
(The run on 3-4 OLBs ends after Dupree for a little bit, unless those 3 teams immediately following the Jets AND #12 CLE, #13 NOS, #15 SFO, & #17 SDC, do not wish to risk missing out on a premium 3-4 pass rusher.)
This is the quandary, do the Jets risk coming up empty by passing on Dupree and trading back too far, only to miss out on Harold too?

Ideally the Jets make 2 deals, dropping back to just after the #9 NYG to St.L's #10 pick, then, if any higher ranked 3-4 OLB and/or Eli Harold is still there, they can risk trading back a little further, depending on scuttlebutt on the next 10-ish teams' likely selections.

That strategy has the added advantage of 1 extra decent pick (3 total) over the "2-fer" single trade back to a 20-ish spot - which must be weighed against the possibility of not getting a premier pass rusher at all & having to waste picks on much less desirable ordinary JAG 3-4 OLBs.

2.) OL - unfortunately no Rd 1 OL talent is going to be in this draft and that includes the 2-3 highest regarded LT prospects. Iowa's Shcherff is the top-rated LT & OL player in this draft, (and PROBABLY ends up playing RT for years), but in comparison to past draft prospects at the position, falls woefully short on talent when viewed against players like Joe Staley, Joe Thomas, or a number of LTs taken later in the draft who surprised their teams, (like David Bakhtiari the Rd 4-#109 Packers selection in 2013).
In HYATT™'s OPINION, OL is not a value pick at #6, but depending on what holes are viewed as critical & OL is seen as more desperate than HYATT™ believes, the Jets can get TREMENDOUS value by trading back for 2 high picks later on & using one to take a best available OL player.

3.) WR is still an open consideration at #6, but only as a 3rd priority.
Yes, the Jets need to seriously consider the future of Marshall in NJ and get a future TRUE #1 WR prospect into the pipeline, but it's not the pressing 2015 NEED that it was before the Marshall trade.
Decker is and will remain a solid "Z" flanker/split end player who can fill the slot at times, but he is no TRUE #1 WR, if such distinctions are being drawn.

Kerley is a SERVICEABLE #3/"Z" flanker but not nearly in the same class as Decker & not really a good slot receiver at all.
The Jets do not actually have a good slot receiver if Decker is playing outside & only Amaro to go across the middle shallow otherwise.

Considering those 2 facts, the Jets COULD be in the market for one of the more highly ranked but shorter and faster elusive slot receivers rather than a future TRUE #1 WR prospect - in THIS draft, and STILL land a potential future TRUE #1 WR prospect in late Rd 3 or early Rd 4.
There are plenty to choose from this year, just like last year's #90 Moncrief, #91 Brown, #106 Ellington, & #118 Bryant.

CB aging is still another issue to be discussed, but this isn't a CB-rich draft, so HYATT™ will save that discussion for some other thread.

You mention the slot position here and we just saw Mike's glowing comments towards Kerley which would indicate they are very happy with him in the slot. But this is smokescreen season and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what these comments were all about as I have reason to believe they are targeting Dorsett with their 2nd pick. They spent a lot of time with Dorsett early in the process and also spent a lot of time with Jamison Crowder who also plays slot. With Marshall at 30 and Decker on either WO position, the team is in need of speed to open up things.

 

[HYATT™]

You mention the slot position here

Just a programming note we could all stand to pay a little more attention to:
Your reply WAS about the next to last paragraph of one of HYATT™'s moderately long posts.
It would have been considerate to the others reading here to ONLY quote that portion of the post, instead of the entirety of it.
Space saving measure at the cost of a couple extra clicks on your part, for what it's worth.

 

[sg3]

Respectfully have to disagree with the affection for Bud Dupree as the guy for the #6 pick in the draft. I've watched some games and much tape of the edge rushers in this draft and I have Dupree rated significantly behind Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Gregory as a potential NFL past rushing DE/OLB. He's way out of my top 6 coming in at around 15 or so.

In my opinion, drafting him at #6 would be a reach on the scale of Gholston at 6, Robertson at 4, Sanchez at 5 and other miscues by my beloved Jets.

Of course, it's only my unprofessional opinion and I'm certain others have given it more study, but, based on what I see, I'd be happier with one of Winston, Williams, Fowler, Mariota, Beasley, White or Cooper at #6

 

[atmorrisjr]

If Mariota is there I hope we take him. If he is gone, my dream choice would be Fowler. If Fowler and Mariota are gone before 6, I would be happy with Cooper at 6

Yep....add me to that list too..........

 

[HYATT™]

Respectfully have to disagree with the affection for Bud Dupree as the guy for the #6 pick in the draft. I've watched some games and much tape of the edge rushers in this draft and I have Dupree rated significantly behind Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Gregory as a potential NFL past rushing DE/OLB. He's way out of my top 6 coming in at around 15 or so.

In my opinion, drafting him at #6 would be a reach on the scale of Gholston at 6, Robertson at 4, Sanchez at 5 and other miscues by my beloved Jets.

Of course, it's only my unprofessional opinion and I'm certain others have given it more study, but, based on what I see, I'd be happier with one of Winston, Williams, Fowler, Mariota, Beasley, White or Cooper at #6

HYATT™ is not actually saying Dupree is WORTH the #6 pick, only that the Jets, if they want to draft him, will have to expend the #6 pick to do so.

 

[sg3]

HYATT™ is not actually saying Dupree is WORTH the #6 pick, only that the Jets, if they want to draft him, will have to expend the #6 pick to do so.

Agree 100%

He should be gone somewhere between 15 and 20 imho