Mel Kiper Jr., Football analyst
When we talk about first-round draft picks, it can be hard not to use phrases like "fills a need" or "ready to step in." I'm certainly guilty of it on occasion, and it's based on the reality that the draft is all about optimism and the best-case scenario for each player headed into the league. But at some point, rookie reality sets in.
I thought we got a lot of great rookie performances last year, but consider other realities of 2014's Round 1:
• Each of the top three picks had major struggles or was injured. You could say six of the top 10 picks had pretty tough transitions.
• Only about 50 percent of first-round picks were full-time starters. (Again, not unusual.)
We always say it, but it's worth repeating: Fit can be more important than talent early on. Opportunity can surpass ability early on when it comes to impact.
With that in mind, here are 10 rookies from Round 1 (five offense, five defense) who I think can make an early impact. While I expect both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota to start early (with Week 1 the likeliest option), neither really qualifies here because they're going to experience major growing pains. I'll hit Rounds 2-3 and 4-7 in the next two days.
Offense
Brandon Scherff, T/G, Washington
Physicality and toughness were a consistent theme in the Washington draft class, and Scherff leads the way. He projects to start at right tackle, and with him and Trent Williams in place I think this team finally has true bookends. While I know people will see this as a move to give Robert Griffin III his best -- and perhaps last -- chance to succeed, I think the bigger dividends will be in the run game. Even if Scherff starts the year at guard, he'll help the Skins run the ball more efficiently.
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland
This isn't a prediction that Cooper will lead the rookie class statistically -- I could see several other rookie WRs catching more passes, for instance -- but he's the one who enters the 2015 season as the clear No. 1 option on his team, and Derek Carr will be looking to him often. He affects the entire offense, and I'd expect him to finish a (healthy) rookie season with 75-plus catches.
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami
While Cooper should have an impact because he's the clear No. 1 option, Parker will get his because while Ryan Tannehill has other options in the passing game, such as Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills, Parker is easily the best big-play threat in the receiving corps. I could see him getting red zone looks as a jump-ball winner.
Melvin Gordon III , RB, San Diego
Of the two first-round running backs, Gordon gets the nod over Todd Gurley due to health. The Rams can't overload Gurley, but in Gordon's case I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least 230 carries. As a reference, last year's breakthrough rookie RB Jeremy Hill got 222 carries.
Laken Tomlinson, G, Detroit
You don't draft a guard in Round 1 with the intention to slowly work him in. Tomlinson will be expected to step in and start, and the Lions seem to have placed a clear emphasis on making themselves more effective in the run game. Tomlinson at his best could help give the Lions a great guard tandem opposite Larry Warford.
Notables
• It wouldn't shock me if Nelson Agholor catches 60-plus passes for the Eagles next season. He's NFL-ready from a route-running perspective and should get starter reps.
• The Ravens' Breshad Perriman will have his share of hiccups, but he's the perfect vehicle to go after Joe Flacco's 50-plus yard throws.
• I'm not sure where the Browns will start Cameron Erving (maybe right guard), but if he does start they could rival Dallas for the NFL's best run-blocking unit.
Defense
Dante Fowler Jr., OLB, Jacksonville
Jacksonville finally has enough bodies on the D-line to create more of a rotation and keep people fresh. Fowler shouldn't be a guy to measure purely in sack totals, because he'll play the run well, but I expect him to be on the field a lot.
Vic Beasley, OLB, Atlanta
I see Beasley as the Leo or elephant pass-rusher on the weak side of Dan Quinn's defense, and while that might do more for his sack totals than it will for a "complete player" description, the disruption and pass rushing is what the Falcons need. Beasley wasn't a reach, but you don't take a player like him in the top 10 without a clear plan for how to unleash him, and I think the Falcons should have a good one.
Bud Dupree, OLB, Pittsburgh
James Harrison turns 37 on Monday, so I'd project Dupree to see a lot of snaps. The Steelers have to get the pass rush cranked up in part because the secondary is going to be a work in progress, with a bunch of young players seeing time.
Stephone Anthony, ILB, New Orleans
Anthony wasn't a big reach on my board, as I just had a couple of players rated ahead of him at that position. Still, this is about fit, and you draft Anthony in Round 1 with the assumption that he'll come in and start early. I could see him as one of the ILBs starting in Week 1. He's ready to help for a defense that needs impact where he can bring it.
Malcom Brown, DT, New England
Bill Belichick might like smart, veteran players, but he's also never been afraid to play rookies. A couple of years ago only the Jags saw more rookie snaps than the Patriots (though injuries played a role). It's not true to say that Brown was drafted as a replacement for Vince Wilfork -- they're completely different players -- but Brown could be an impact guy because he'll be in the D-line rotation for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Notables
• Yes, I expect Leonard Williams to be really, really good, I just don't think his role will be cemented right away, because the Jets are already good up front and could test-drive some different things.
• Danny Shelton could see starter reps for the Browns, but that's not an easy transition and a healthy Phil Taylor should see more.
• It would almost be surprising if Shaq Thompson isn't an immediate starter as the weakside LB in Carolina given the premium they put on him taking him at No. 25.
When we talk about first-round draft picks, it can be hard not to use phrases like "fills a need" or "ready to step in." I'm certainly guilty of it on occasion, and it's based on the reality that the draft is all about optimism and the best-case scenario for each player headed into the league. But at some point, rookie reality sets in.
I thought we got a lot of great rookie performances last year, but consider other realities of 2014's Round 1:
• Each of the top three picks had major struggles or was injured. You could say six of the top 10 picks had pretty tough transitions.
• Only about 50 percent of first-round picks were full-time starters. (Again, not unusual.)
We always say it, but it's worth repeating: Fit can be more important than talent early on. Opportunity can surpass ability early on when it comes to impact.
With that in mind, here are 10 rookies from Round 1 (five offense, five defense) who I think can make an early impact. While I expect both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota to start early (with Week 1 the likeliest option), neither really qualifies here because they're going to experience major growing pains. I'll hit Rounds 2-3 and 4-7 in the next two days.
Offense
Brandon Scherff, T/G, Washington
Physicality and toughness were a consistent theme in the Washington draft class, and Scherff leads the way. He projects to start at right tackle, and with him and Trent Williams in place I think this team finally has true bookends. While I know people will see this as a move to give Robert Griffin III his best -- and perhaps last -- chance to succeed, I think the bigger dividends will be in the run game. Even if Scherff starts the year at guard, he'll help the Skins run the ball more efficiently.
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland
This isn't a prediction that Cooper will lead the rookie class statistically -- I could see several other rookie WRs catching more passes, for instance -- but he's the one who enters the 2015 season as the clear No. 1 option on his team, and Derek Carr will be looking to him often. He affects the entire offense, and I'd expect him to finish a (healthy) rookie season with 75-plus catches.
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami
While Cooper should have an impact because he's the clear No. 1 option, Parker will get his because while Ryan Tannehill has other options in the passing game, such as Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills, Parker is easily the best big-play threat in the receiving corps. I could see him getting red zone looks as a jump-ball winner.
Melvin Gordon III , RB, San Diego
Of the two first-round running backs, Gordon gets the nod over Todd Gurley due to health. The Rams can't overload Gurley, but in Gordon's case I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least 230 carries. As a reference, last year's breakthrough rookie RB Jeremy Hill got 222 carries.
Laken Tomlinson, G, Detroit
You don't draft a guard in Round 1 with the intention to slowly work him in. Tomlinson will be expected to step in and start, and the Lions seem to have placed a clear emphasis on making themselves more effective in the run game. Tomlinson at his best could help give the Lions a great guard tandem opposite Larry Warford.
Notables
• It wouldn't shock me if Nelson Agholor catches 60-plus passes for the Eagles next season. He's NFL-ready from a route-running perspective and should get starter reps.
• The Ravens' Breshad Perriman will have his share of hiccups, but he's the perfect vehicle to go after Joe Flacco's 50-plus yard throws.
• I'm not sure where the Browns will start Cameron Erving (maybe right guard), but if he does start they could rival Dallas for the NFL's best run-blocking unit.
Defense
Dante Fowler Jr., OLB, Jacksonville
Jacksonville finally has enough bodies on the D-line to create more of a rotation and keep people fresh. Fowler shouldn't be a guy to measure purely in sack totals, because he'll play the run well, but I expect him to be on the field a lot.
Vic Beasley, OLB, Atlanta
I see Beasley as the Leo or elephant pass-rusher on the weak side of Dan Quinn's defense, and while that might do more for his sack totals than it will for a "complete player" description, the disruption and pass rushing is what the Falcons need. Beasley wasn't a reach, but you don't take a player like him in the top 10 without a clear plan for how to unleash him, and I think the Falcons should have a good one.
Bud Dupree, OLB, Pittsburgh
James Harrison turns 37 on Monday, so I'd project Dupree to see a lot of snaps. The Steelers have to get the pass rush cranked up in part because the secondary is going to be a work in progress, with a bunch of young players seeing time.
Stephone Anthony, ILB, New Orleans
Anthony wasn't a big reach on my board, as I just had a couple of players rated ahead of him at that position. Still, this is about fit, and you draft Anthony in Round 1 with the assumption that he'll come in and start early. I could see him as one of the ILBs starting in Week 1. He's ready to help for a defense that needs impact where he can bring it.
Malcom Brown, DT, New England
Bill Belichick might like smart, veteran players, but he's also never been afraid to play rookies. A couple of years ago only the Jags saw more rookie snaps than the Patriots (though injuries played a role). It's not true to say that Brown was drafted as a replacement for Vince Wilfork -- they're completely different players -- but Brown could be an impact guy because he'll be in the D-line rotation for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Notables
• Yes, I expect Leonard Williams to be really, really good, I just don't think his role will be cemented right away, because the Jets are already good up front and could test-drive some different things.
• Danny Shelton could see starter reps for the Browns, but that's not an easy transition and a healthy Phil Taylor should see more.
• It would almost be surprising if Shaq Thompson isn't an immediate starter as the weakside LB in Carolina given the premium they put on him taking him at No. 25.
