Playoff Odds by Record (See Chart)
- Thread starter Green Jets & Ham
- Start date
As you can see, had we lost in Buffalo and started 0-2, our odds of making the playoffs would be a minuscule 10%
But because we won that game, our odds are a reasonable 41%
As for Week 3:
If we lose to KC and fall to 1-2, our odds of making the playoffs drop to 25%
However, if we beat KC and climb to 2-1, our odds increase to 52%
But because we won that game, our odds are a reasonable 41%
As for Week 3:
If we lose to KC and fall to 1-2, our odds of making the playoffs drop to 25%
However, if we beat KC and climb to 2-1, our odds increase to 52%
BTW do you notice something that speaks to typical Jets luck on this chart?
If you go 10-6 like we did last year, you have an 87% chance at making the playoffs.
So of course we go 10-6 and find ourselves in the 13% :global (48):
If you go 10-6 like we did last year, you have an 87% chance at making the playoffs.
So of course we go 10-6 and find ourselves in the 13% :global (48):
Sorry, but I really can't stand these kind of stats.
The reason 0-2 teams barely ever make the playoffs isn't because they're 0-2, it's because they probably stink and don't deserve to make the playoffs in the first place.
Am I really supposed to believe if we lost to Cincy/Buffalo at different points in the season it would have a different impact on our season than if we lost the first two weeks?
A playoff-caliber team wins enough games over the course of the season to qualify for the post-season. IMO where the wins (and losses) occur isn't nearly as important as some make it out to be . . .
According to that chart the Chiefs had a 1% chance of making the playoffs last year and they made it.
Teams can beat the odds, this chart is only giving you the odds based on a 20+ Years statistical analysis. Last year we beat the odds too, but in the wrong direction. 87% of teams that finish 10-6 make the playoffs.
We landed on the wrong side of that 87%
I am sorry, but you are really missing the point of the chart. Losing at different times of the year has absolutely no impact on how this chart works. If you lose in September, or lose in October, it has the same effect, it moves you one column to the right.
OK, let me talk nice and slow . . .
According to "the chart", going 0-2 gives you a 10% chance of making the playoffs. That implies it is VERY difficult to make the playoffs if you lose the first two games.
Are you still with me?
Yet it doesn't take into account that most teams that start 0-2 go on to have horrible seasons, which validates why they went 0-2 to begin with. It doesn't account for the idea that most "good" teams don't go 0-2 in the first place, and that the 10% that do make the playoffs are very likely teams that just had a tough first 2 games, but went on to have a much better rest of the season.
Because I believe the Jets would have been better than a traditional 0-2 team even if they had lost in Buffalo, I wouldn't have given up on the season regardless of how that game played out (though I'm obviously glad they won).
Let me know if the logic still escapes you . . .
OCCH,
Everything you said is true, but what you are missing is that the chart, which is really just a statistical analysis, accounts for what you said. Its basically telling you that 90% of teams that start 0-2 are simply not playoff caliber teams, and that bears itself out over a full season, whereas 10% of teams that start 0-2 are what you sighted as better than their 0-2 start suggests, and that to bears itself out over a full season. So yes, the Jets could have started 0-2 and proved to be in the 10%, but the chart suggests that playoff caliber teams don't normally lose their first two games. 90% of those teams are what their 0-2 start suggests that they are. Its the old Parcells'ism, you are what your record says you are.
Everything you said is true, but what you are missing is that the chart, which is really just a statistical analysis, accounts for what you said. Its basically telling you that 90% of teams that start 0-2 are simply not playoff caliber teams, and that bears itself out over a full season, whereas 10% of teams that start 0-2 are what you sighted as better than their 0-2 start suggests, and that to bears itself out over a full season. So yes, the Jets could have started 0-2 and proved to be in the 10%, but the chart suggests that playoff caliber teams don't normally lose their first two games. 90% of those teams are what their 0-2 start suggests that they are. Its the old Parcells'ism, you are what your record says you are.
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Yes,but it also puts a lot of stress on a team to essentially play the entire season on a hot streak. You would have to go on multiple win streaks of 4 games. It's possible and that's why the chance isn't zero, and why adding a win the next week increases the odds.
0-2 is a really difficult spot in the nfl.there's probably 2 teams that are good enough to rebound from it,Patriots and steelers.
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And, it's just a historic representation which shows pretty clearly,going 0-2 means you probably are done. But,winning week 3 more than doubles your odds from 10% up to 25% which also shows how important it is to get your first win.
His point was, every week you're odds change, as you record does.
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This was said as well as I possibly could.
If we had lost to Buffalo and beat KC, we'd be 1-2. We beat Buffalo, yet if we lose to KC, we're still 1-2. So to act like that was a "critical win" on Thursday is a little overdramatic, no? It certainly isn't any more critical than this week, or next (ignoring the whole in-division thing, which is irrelevant to this discussion).
I wasn't trying to attack anyone as much as disagree with the implication of the stat. We know we have a tough start to our schedule, so a "statistically poor" first half of the season is almost expected. Yet we're all banking on a strong finish, which by definition has the potential to negate the impact of the first two games.
Personally I'm happy with what this team has brought to the field so far, regardless of record. We tighten up a few loose ends and we should DEFINITELY be a team to be reckoned with each and every week . . .
The Jets ate in a particularly tough spot because of the Patriots. If we started 0-2 and they went 2-0 odds are slim that we are winning the division. So we have a tough schedule and need to win a wild card spot against the entire AFC. Teams like the giants could win their division at 8-8. We are in a spot where we Deb if we deserve a playoff spot,we have to do more than other afc teams to actually earn it because of the Patriots.
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Right now we have a 4% chance at making thee playoffs, and frankly I'm surprised its that high.
After we lose next week, it will be what I expected it to be at 1-5 .... ZERO
After we lose next week, it will be what I expected it to be at 1-5 .... ZERO
Mods, we can un-pin this thread now :-(
Oh, now we can unpin it??
Remember it's the odds historically,not current odds based on this week.
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