QB Prospects - who are the comparables for success and failure?

maxmet

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
I'll start the game

Josh Allen

Bust - Jeff George
Boom - Roethelsberger

Baker Mayfield

Bust - Manziel
Boom - Wilson

Sam Darnold


Josh Rosen
 

Flyboys89

5th Year Team Option
Jet Fanatics
Josh Allen: Bust- Ryan Mallet. Boom- Cam Newton
Sam Darnold: Bust- Mark Sanchez. Boom- John Elway
Josh Rosen: Bust- Mike Glennon. Boom- Peyton Manning
Baker Mayfield: Bust- Chase Daniel. Boom- Russell Wilson
Lamar Jackson: Bust- Terrel Pryor (as a QB). Boom- Michael Vick.
 

BlindsideD'Brick

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics
Sam Darnold will be Marcus Mariota or Ryan Fitzpatrick
Josh Rosen will be Eli Manning or Mike Glennon
Josh Allen will be Ben Roethlisberger or Jeff George
Baker Mayfield will be Drew Brees or Johnny Manziel
Lamar Jackson will be Michael Vick (minus the dog fighting) or Ray Lucas
 
Last edited:

Green Jets & Ham

King Of All Draftniks
Jet Fanatics
Baker Mayfield

Bust: Johnny Manziel (The talent is undeniable, sometimes awe inspiring, but will he self destruct?)
Boom: Brett Favre (Gunslinger from the word GO, incredibly accurate with downfield passes, a thrill a minute)

Josh Allen

Bust: Bobby Douglass (Size, mobility, cannon for an arm, but couldn't hit water if he fell from a boat)
Boom: John Elway (Big, strong, mobile and a cannon for an arm, but has to improve his accuracy)

Josh Rosen

Bust: Jamarcus Russell (Gets paid and goes in the tank, because he doesn't love football)
Boom: Joe Montana (To watch him throw is a thing of beauty, no kidding, its truly a thing of beauty)

Sam Darnold

Bust: Mark Sanchez (Overhyped USC California kid whose confidence is easily shattered, by his own admission, when things don't go his way)
Boom: Phillip Rivers (May be prone to the occasional INT, but has the talent to overcome it and hang 30+ on any defense)

Lamar Jackson

Bust: RG3 (Incredible athlete and pretty good passer too, but instincts to run gets him killed and shortens his career)
Boom: Steve Young/Roger Staubach (Runs when he has too, and really well, otherwise learns to tear you a new ass from the pocket)
 
Last edited:

NewMFS62

Weeb's Mentor
Jet Fanatics
Jets Global
Ham said it better than I could.
I'll go with his comps, good and bad.
Later
 

BlindsideD'Brick

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics
Listened to Kiper on today’s Michael Kay show, and his take on Josh Allen:

Wyoming lost four starters at key positions prior to last season, and it killed that team. Wyoming is no USC. You can’t lose good players and replace them the same way that a powerhouse recruiting college can. Also Kiper downplayed the completion %. He referenced Favre and Montana as guys who also had low completion %’s and it ended up not mattering because they were both great QB’s.

Kiper said Allen would be his pick at #1.

Like him or not, Kiper has a good track record on these college players.
 

Green Jets & Ham

King Of All Draftniks
Jet Fanatics
Listened to Kiper on today’s Michael Kay show, and his take on Josh Allen:

Wyoming lost four starters at key positions prior to last season, and it killed that team. Wyoming is no USC. You can’t lose good players and replace them the same way that a powerhouse recruiting college can. Also Kiper downplayed the completion %. He referenced Favre and Montana as guys who also had low completion %’s and it ended up not mattering because they were both great QB’s.

Kiper said Allen would be his pick at #1.

Like him or not, Kiper has a good track record on these college players.
Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Allen goes #1 Overall.

As much as I love Mayfield, I have been saying for months that of all of the BIG 4 QB's in this draft, Josh Allen, BY FAR, has the highest ceiling.

He also might be the least NFL ready of the bunch, but nobody in this draft has more impressive physical skills.

Size, strength, mobility and a cannon for an arm, physically he is the whole package.
 

jets82

Curious George
Jet Fanatics
Green Jets & Ham;n160721 said:
Baker Mayfield

Bust: Johnny Manziel (The talent is undeniable, sometimes awe inspiring, but will he self destruct?)
Boom: Brett Favre (Gunslinger from the word GO, incredibly accurate with downfield passes, a thrill a minute)

Josh Allen

Bust: Bobby Douglass (Size, mobility, cannon for an arm, but couldn't hit water if he fell from a boat)
Boom: John Elway (Big, strong, mobile and a cannon for an arm, but has to improve his accuracy)

Josh Rosen

Bust: Jamarcus Russell (Gets paid and goes in the tank, because he doesn't love football)
Boom: Joe Montana (To watch him throw is a thing of beauty, no kidding, its truly a thing of beauty)

Sam Darnold

Bust: Mark Sanchez (Overhyped USC California kid whose confidence is easily shattered, by his own admission, when things don't go his way)
Boom: Phillip Rivers (May be prone to the occasional INT, but has the talent to overcome it and hang 30+ on any defense)

Lamar Jackson

Bust: RG3 (Incredible athlete and pretty good passer too, but instincts to run gets him killed and shortens his career)
Boom: Steve Young/Roger Staubach (Runs when he has too, and really well, otherwise learns to tear you a new ass from the pocket)

Love your comparison. Here’s my take, no real thought process and just winging it here:

Josh Rosen:
Boom: Aaron Rodgers
Bust: Alex Smith

Josh Allen:
Boom: Dan Marino
Bust: Jemarcus Russell

Sam Darnold:
Boom: Jim Kelly
Bust: Jeff George

Baker Mayfield:
Boom: Russell Wilson
Bust: Mark Sanchez

Lamar Jackson:
Boom: Steve Young
Bust: RG3

Mason Rudolph:
Boom: Tom Brady
Bust: Ken O’Brien
 

maxmet

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
if Rosen's bust scenario is Alex Smith, then he's darn interesting - not that I want Alex Smith, but that is an okay "bust"
 

jets82

Curious George
Jet Fanatics
if Rosen's bust scenario is Alex Smith, then he's darn interesting - not that I want Alex Smith, but that is an okay "bust"

That’s exactly what I’m saying. Smith is a decent QB, very decent!!! Not bad. The way they speak on this kid Rosen, his worst might be someone like Smith. Good to very good but not great. The rest may be better them what QBs as a bust I choice also.
 
Last edited:

SackExchange

Jet Fanatic
The Mod Squad
Jet Fanatics
Jets Global
Darnold
Bust - Sanchize
Boom - Montana

Rosen
Bust - Bradford
Boom - Rodgers

Mayfield
Bust - Manziel
Boom - Brees

Allen
Bust - Leaf
Boom - Elway

Jackson
Bust - Geno
Boom - Steve Young
 

gastineau

Transition Tagged
Jet Fanatics
QB comparisons

RG3= Mayfield ,small running QB & hows RG3 now? Brady=Rosen, both slight build, pocket passing QB's only & needs big O Line for protection because they cant run and get hit much. Big Ben R.=Josh Allen, Both big guys that are durable when getting hit, both great arms, both can run & pass. So first 2 QB's Jets will have to rebuild again to play Mayfiel/Rosen style Football. While Allen is already set with this current Jets team next year. If Allen is there for Jets, they better take him & if Allen is gone? Better take Rosen & start building that O Line and hope he listens and learns like Brady.
 

gastineau

Transition Tagged
Jet Fanatics
Thanks GF! Mayfield-Rosen Jets will have to rebuild the Offense to fit their QB play. Mayfields RG3 play from shotgun & running small QB and hope he doesnt get hit by a 250lb LBer. Rosen slight build isnt thick size to take big hits either so a huge O Line to protect him. Allen has the arm & size to absorb hits in the pocket. I do like Darnold & Allen went to a QB coach to fix their play, Darnolds was ball handling & Allen's was footwork. Both looked the best & showed me they have incentive to get better. While Rosen-Mayfield just talked about themselves instead of going to a QB guru to see what they need to learn in playing at NFL level. Maybe its because Mayfield-Rosen feels they already know3 everything they need? Sanchez thought that & never learned not to telegraph his passes or hoe to read Defenses and audible against them.
 

maxmet

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
this thread worked out nicely - reminds me of the way Baseball Prospectus does its PECOTA comparables - but we dont have the right kind of data to do that in football - thanks for all the posts
 
Top