Updated AFC WC Standings + Week 14 Games that matter

[Green Jets & Ham]

AFC DIVISION LEADERS/SEEDS

1. AFCN: (10-2) Bengals
2. AFCW: (10-2) Broncos
3. AFCE: (10-2) Patriots
4. AFCS: (6-6) Colts

====

AFC WILDCARD STANDINGS

1. (7-5) KC Chiefs
   [*](7-5) NY JETS
   ===
   [*](7-5) Pittsburgh Steelers
   [*](6-6) Buffalo Bills
   [*](6-6) Houston Texans
   [*](5-7) Oakland Raiders
   [*](5-7) Miami Dolphins

===

WEEK 14 GAMES THAT MATTER

(7-5) JETS vs (3-9) TITANS

Obviously we know who we're rooting for in this one.

(7-5) CHIEFS vs (3-9) CHARGERS

The Chargers are decimated at WR and on he O-line, so KC is not losing this one at home.

(7-5) STEELERS @ (10-2) BENGALS

This is a real chance to get some distance between ourselves and Pittsburgh.

(6-6) BILLS @ (5-7) EAGLES

The Bills are dangerous because they own the H2H tiebreaker over us and we still have to play them again in their building, last game of the season, and you know Rex will have his team inspired for that game. It would be extremely helpful if the Eagles can knock them off next week after upsetting the Patriots at Gillette.

(6-6) TEXANS vs (10-2) PATRIOTS

The Pats have rarely (if ever?) lost three in a row in the Belichick/Brady era, so here is another chance to create some distance, and Houston owns the H2H tiebreaker over the Jets, so a two game cushion (technically 1.5) would be huge.

(6-6) COLTS @ (4-8) JAGUARS

Jacksonville's offense is clicking and they are home, so without Andrew Luck this is no gimme for Indy who will be battling for a Wildcard if Houston overtakes them for the AFCS division title, which would be a good thing for us because we own the tiebreaker over the Colts, whereas Houston owns the tiebreaker over us.

(5-7) RAIDERS @ (10-2) BRONCOS

Denver can finish them off and that would be a good thing, because the Raiders also have the H2H tiebreaker over us.

(5-7) DOLPHINS vs (5-7) GIANTS

With a H2H sweep over Miami and a two game lead, they are no real threat at the moment, but the Giants are still very much alive, even at 5-7 in a pathetically weak NFC East. Either way, one of the teams I hate can be killed next week.

 

[Jet Fan RI]

Thanks for the update Ham. Just what I wanted to know!

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

We control our own destiny and thats all that matters. I will just keep saying it because of all the things that could happen. I will worry about the scenarios before we play Pats. We win our next 4 we are in.

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Thanks for the update Ham. Just what I wanted to know!

You're welcome.

KC is not losing this week, but it would really behoove us to overtake them for the #5 Seed before this season ends.

Why is that?

The 5 Seed will draw the winner of the weak AFC South in the first round, Colts or Texans, while the 6 Seed will draw NE, Denver or Cinci. Right now it would be the Patriots. I don't fear them, especially with all of their injuries, but I'd rather get the AFCS winner. They winner of that division might be 8-8.

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

We control our own destiny and thats all that matters. I will just keep saying it because of all the things that could happen. I will worry about the scenarios before we play Pats. We win our next 4 we are in.

I think 10 Wins gets us in, that means we need to go 3-1 in these last four games.

If thats right, IMO these next two (vs Tenn and @ Dallas) are must win games, thats the way I'm looking at it, because I don't think its realistic to expect us to sweep the last two, home verses NE and @ Buffalo. Its possible, but not very likely.

The far more likely scenario as I see it, if we're looking for our most realistic road to the playoffs, we win these next two and then get a split verses NE and at Buffalo. If NE is still as banged up as they are now, no Edelman and no Gronk, I actually see the home game verses the Pats as the easier one to get. Not easy, but easier (of the two), and I WOULD HATE going into Buffalo on the last weekend needing that game to get into the dance, because you know how fired up Rex will have his team to wreck our season, especially if he's playing to get in, but even if he isn't, he would love to wreck our season the final week in Buffalo.

Anyway, thats getting a bit ahead of ourselves, right now the important thing is to win the next two. These are both games we should win, we'll be favored in both of them, and we CANNOT let either one of them slip away.

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Anyway, thats getting a bit ahead of ourselves, right now the important thing is to win the next two. These are both games we should win, we'll be favored in both of them, and we CANNOT let either one of them slip away.

I just saw the early line for next week and the Jets are favored by a touchdown (7) verses Tennessee.

As for the other games that matter:

Chiefs -10.5 vs Chargers
Steelers +3.5 @ Bengals
Bills +2 @ Eagles
Texans +3.5 vs Patriots
Colts +1 @ Jaguars
Raiders +7 @ Broncos
Dolphins -1 vs Giants

So of all the games that matter, only KC is a big favorite next week, the rest of the teams we are rooting against are either underdogs or virtual pick'em games (Bills +2, Colts +1 and Miami -1).

The two biggest favorites of the WC contenders are US and the Chiefs.

 

[ucrenegade]

We can do it..............:global (31):

 

[Golden Rott]

Steelers still scare me. I know that we own the tiebreaker right now, but that is only because we are 5-4 in conference and they are 4-4. If we finish the season tied in-conference, then I think the tiebreak goes their way due to common opponents -- Browns, Raiders, Patriots and Colts. They are 3-1 and likely to beat the Browns again to go 4-1. We are 2-2, having lost to Pats and Raiders. Even if we beat the Pats we would still lose tiebreak with 2 losses among common opponents. Not 100% certain of this, but that is how I think it would go.

Good news is Pitt has to go to Cincy this week and then has Denver following week.

 

[marac]

Feels funny being a Philly fan all of a sudden

 

[johnnysd]

Not quite. If KC and Pitt win out they win the wildcards, but that is super unlikely

 

[jetgreen13]

Not quite. If KC and Pitt win out they win the wildcards, but that is super unlikely

in other news, fitzmagic!!

sorry [MENTION=3]Elias[/MENTION], i couldn't help myself..

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

I just re did it as well and we don't control our own destiny we must win out and have Steelers or KC lose a game. That is very unlikely IMO. Like I said earlier I will start to get excited if we get to Pats at 9-5. Right now we have no control of what other teams do. Must root for Bengals this week or Denver next week vs Steelers. KC has an easy road.

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

Although if we are tied with Steelers at 10-6 we would get tie breaker if we lose to Cowboys and they lose an AFC game.

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

Nobody has said this, but we need the Redskins to win tonight. Otherwise the Cowboys have something to play for in two weeks.

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Nobody has said this, but we need the Redskins to win tonight. Otherwise the Cowboys have something to play for in two weeks.

Good Point, you want that Jets/Cowboys game to mean NOTHING for the Cowboys.

 

[Elias]

Yea, good point. They actually didn't IR Romo in case they go on a little run and make the playoffs.

 

[jetgreen13]

go skins!!

 

[Bigmoe]

I just re did it as well and we don't control our own destiny we must win out and have Steelers or KC lose a game. That is very unlikely IMO. Like I said earlier I will start to get excited if we get to Pats at 9-5. Right now we have no control of what other teams do. Must root for Bengals this week or Denver next week vs Steelers. KC has an easy road.

I think that the tie breaker with Pitt head to head
But what if it's a 3 way tie?
Is that still the tie breaker?
I'm still giddy after yesterday , don't want to get depressed already
Go,Bengals!!!

 

[Golden Rott]

I think that the tie breaker with Pitt head to head
But what if it's a 3 way tie?
Is that still the tie breaker?
I'm still giddy after yesterday , don't want to get depressed already
Go,Bengals!!!
View attachment 1194

From NFL.com:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.

If I interpret this right, head-to-head would only apply if one team sweeps both of the other teams. So it would come down to conference record and then record against common opponents.

 

[TebowCan'tThrow]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Everyone check this out.