Throughout the first 10 years of the New York Jets’ active 11-year playoff drought, fans could only rely on the team to be consistently good at one thing: stopping the run. From 2011-20, the Jets allowed the fewest yards per carry of any team in the NFL (3.9) while giving up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (105.1).
That all changed in 2021.
For the first time in many years, the Jets were one of the NFL’s very worst teams at defending the run. Here are some of their run-defense rankings in the 2021 season:
To figure that out, I compiled a bunch of different run-defense statistics for every qualified Jets defender to appear in the 2021 season. My goal was to figure out how well each Jets defender performed against the run compared to their peers around the league at the same position.
With that goal in mind, I concocted a one-number score that estimates each player’s performance against the run. We’ll call it the run-defense score (RDS).
RDS was calculated by taking each player’s percentile ranking among qualifiers at their position in three different statistics and averaging those three percentile rankings together. Here are the three statistics used:
To exemplify the calculation of RDS, we’ll use the numbers of Quinnen Williams (one of the Jets’ good run defenders). Here are Williams’ numbers and where they ranked out of 145 qualified interior defensive linemen:
Now that we’ve got the methodology down, let’s reveal some of the primary culprits for the Jets’ ghastly run defense in 2021.
These nine Jets players were easily the worst qualified run defenders on the team when it came to RDS.
That all changed in 2021.
For the first time in many years, the Jets were one of the NFL’s very worst teams at defending the run. Here are some of their run-defense rankings in the 2021 season:
- Rushing yards per game: 138.3 (29th)
- Rush defense DVOA: -2.6% (26th)
- Rushing touchdowns: 28 (32nd)
- Yards per carry: 4.5 (24th)
To figure that out, I compiled a bunch of different run-defense statistics for every qualified Jets defender to appear in the 2021 season. My goal was to figure out how well each Jets defender performed against the run compared to their peers around the league at the same position.
With that goal in mind, I concocted a one-number score that estimates each player’s performance against the run. We’ll call it the run-defense score (RDS).
RDS was calculated by taking each player’s percentile ranking among qualifiers at their position in three different statistics and averaging those three percentile rankings together. Here are the three statistics used:
- Pro Football Focus run defense grade: PFF’s one-number estimation of the quality of a player’s run defense based on the grading of every snap.
- Missed tackle rate vs. run: The player’s ratio of tackles to missed tackles in the run game. Estimation of finishing ability. Formula: Missed Tackles Vs. Run ÷ (Missed Tackles Vs. Run + Total Tackles Vs. Run)
- Run-stop rate: Percentage of a player’s run-defense snaps in which he recorded a “run stop”, which is classified by PFF as a tackle that constitutes a failed play for the offense. Estimation of knack for playmaking.
To exemplify the calculation of RDS, we’ll use the numbers of Quinnen Williams (one of the Jets’ good run defenders). Here are Williams’ numbers and where they ranked out of 145 qualified interior defensive linemen:
- PFF run defense grade: 59.0 (48th) – Percentile: 67.36
- Missed tackle rate: 5.0% (32nd) – Percentile: 78.47
- Run-stop rate: 10.0% (20th) – Percentile: 86.80
Now that we’ve got the methodology down, let’s reveal some of the primary culprits for the Jets’ ghastly run defense in 2021.
These nine Jets players were easily the worst qualified run defenders on the team when it came to RDS.
Nathan Shepherd was decent when it came to finishing tackles but did not make productive plays very often, collecting 13 run stops over 248 snaps against the run.
- Run defense snaps played: 248
- Overall RDS rank: 409th of 592 (Percentile: 31st)
- Interior Defensive Line RDS rank: 102nd of 145 (Percentile: 30th)
- PFF run defense grade: 46.8 (101st) – IDL Percentile: 30.56
- Missed tackle rate: 7.4% (66th) – IDL Percentile: 54.86
- Run-stop rate: 5.2% (105th) – IDL Percentile: 27.78
Shaq Lawson actually earned an excellent PFF run defense grade of 69.0. However, his on-ball production was bad. Lawson had nine run stops over 239 snaps against the run and missed four tackles in comparison to just 19 total tackles.
- Run defense snaps played: 239
- Overall RDS rank: 420th of 592 (Percentile: 29th)
- Edge Defender RDS rank: 81st of 120 (Percentile: 33rd)
- PFF run defense grade: 69.0 (28th) – EDGE Percentile: 77.31
- Missed tackle rate: 17.4% (99th) – EDGE Percentile: 17.65
- Run-stop rate: 3.8% (102nd) – EDGE Percentile: 15.13
Bryce Huff‘s profile is the opposite of Lawson’s. Huff was not egregiously far below the median when it came to run-stop rate and he finished right around average when it came to missed tackles. However, he was panned by PFF’s grading system.
There’s a huge gap between Huff and the next six players on our list.
There’s a huge gap between Huff and the next six players on our list.
- Run defense snaps played: 121
- Overall RDS rank: 448th of 592 (Percentile: 24th)
- Edge Defender RDS rank: 89th of 120 (Percentile: 33rd)
- PFF run defense grade: 45.5 (108th) – EDGE Percentile: 10.08
- Missed tackle rate: 10.0% (55th) – EDGE Percentile: 54.62
- Run-stop rate: 5.0% (78th) – EDGE Percentile: 35.29
Brandin Echols‘ total of five run stops over 299 snaps against the run is par for the course at the cornerback position, but he could not overcome his abysmal tackling.
Despite making only eight tackles in the phase, Echols tied for the most missed tackles against the run among cornerbacks with seven. This means that he whiffed on nearly half of his opportunities to make a tackle against the run, which is extremely poor. The average missed tackle rate among cornerbacks in 2021 was 15.8%.
Despite making only eight tackles in the phase, Echols tied for the most missed tackles against the run among cornerbacks with seven. This means that he whiffed on nearly half of his opportunities to make a tackle against the run, which is extremely poor. The average missed tackle rate among cornerbacks in 2021 was 15.8%.
- Run defense snaps played: 299
- Overall RDS rank: 541st of 592 (Percentile: 9th)
- Cornerback RDS rank: 117th of 128 (Percentile: 9th)
- PFF run defense grade: 31.1 (126th) – CB Percentile: 1.57
- Missed tackle rate: 46.7% (125th) – CB Percentile: 2.36
- Run-stop rate: 1.7% (58th) – CB Percentile: 55.12
Sharrod Neasman whiffed on a pair of tackles over his short amount of time on the field.
- Run defense snaps played: 97
- Overall RDS rank: 547th of 592 (Percentile: 8th)
- Safety RDS rank: 87th of 97 (Percentile: 10th)
- PFF run defense grade: 31.2 (97th) – S Percentile: 0.00
- Missed tackle rate: 20.0% (82nd) – S Percentile: 15.63
- Run-stop rate: 2.1% (59th) – S Percentile: 39.58
Tim Ward was a very unproductive run defender in his limited opportunities, collecting only three run stops over 92 snaps for a run-stop rate of 3.3%. The league average for edge defenders this season was 5.9%. Ward also missed two tackles.
- Run defense snaps played: 92
- Overall RDS rank: 549th of 592 (Percentile: 7th)
- Edge Defender RDS rank: 112th of 120 (Percentile: 7th)
- PFF run defense grade: 56.6 (78th) – EDGE Percentile: 35.29
- Missed tackle rate: 20.0% (106th) – EDGE Percentile: 11.76
- Run-stop rate: 3.3% (111th) – EDGE Percentile: 7.56
The run game was always Sheldon Rankins‘ weaker phase prior to joining the Jets, but he was never this bad of a run defender in New Orleans.
Rankins picked up 12 run stops over 230 snaps for a 5.2% run-stop rate. The league average at his position was 6.9% this year. Since 6.9% of 230 is 15.9, Rankins finished with about four fewer run stops than the league average IDL would be expected to get over his volume of snaps.
Rankins also missed four tackles compared to 20 total tackles, a 16.7% miss rate. That’s nearly double the league average for IDL, which was 8.8%.
PFF scored Rankins with a run-defense grade of 34.4, ranking 134th out of the 145 qualifiers in this batch and 73rd out of 74 IDL who played at least 200 snaps against the run. That grade is likely due to his issues with filling his gaps and holding his ground. Rankins was moved fairly easily by opposing linemen when you flip on his 2021 film, allowing a lot of running lanes to open up.
Rankins picked up 12 run stops over 230 snaps for a 5.2% run-stop rate. The league average at his position was 6.9% this year. Since 6.9% of 230 is 15.9, Rankins finished with about four fewer run stops than the league average IDL would be expected to get over his volume of snaps.
Rankins also missed four tackles compared to 20 total tackles, a 16.7% miss rate. That’s nearly double the league average for IDL, which was 8.8%.
PFF scored Rankins with a run-defense grade of 34.4, ranking 134th out of the 145 qualifiers in this batch and 73rd out of 74 IDL who played at least 200 snaps against the run. That grade is likely due to his issues with filling his gaps and holding his ground. Rankins was moved fairly easily by opposing linemen when you flip on his 2021 film, allowing a lot of running lanes to open up.
- Run defense snaps played: 230
- Overall RDS rank: 557th of 592 (Percentile: 6th)
- Interior Defensive Line RDS rank: 135th of 145 (Percentile: 7th)
- PFF run defense grade: 34.4 (134th) – IDL Percentile: 7.64
- Missed tackle rate: 16.7% (120th) – IDL Percentile: 17.36
- Run-stop rate: 5.2% (108th) – IDL Percentile: 25.69
Ashtyn Davis is the lowest-scoring player on this list who started for the majority of the year, making him a strong candidate for New York’s “Run Game LVP” award.
Davis was one of three qualified safeties who failed to record a run stop. His total of 325 run-defense snaps played without a stop was by far the most of any safety (over 200 snaps ahead of the closest player). This occurred despite Davis playing 30.7% of his snaps in the box, per PFF.
Davis had a 14.3% missed tackle rate as he missed four tackles against the run while making 24. The league average for safeties was 12.0%.
Davis was one of three qualified safeties who failed to record a run stop. His total of 325 run-defense snaps played without a stop was by far the most of any safety (over 200 snaps ahead of the closest player). This occurred despite Davis playing 30.7% of his snaps in the box, per PFF.
Davis had a 14.3% missed tackle rate as he missed four tackles against the run while making 24. The league average for safeties was 12.0%.
- Run defense snaps played: 325
- Overall RDS rank: 568th of 592 (Percentile: 4th)
- Safety RDS rank: 90th of 97 (Percentile: 7th)
- PFF run defense grade: 43.1 (93rd) – S Percentile: 4.17
- Missed tackle rate: 14.3% (61st) – S Percentile: 37.50
- Run-stop rate: 0.0% (95th) – S Percentile: 2.08
Jarrad Davis did not play a whole lot this season. Part of that was due to injuries, but much of it was because he struggled so much that the Jets essentially benched him.
Davis ranked bottom-10 at his position in all three categories. He picked up only four stops across 97 run-defense snaps, a 4.1% rate, which is brutal for a linebacker. The positional average this season was 6.9%.
Despite making only 10 tackles against the run, Davis still missed two tackles. His 16.7% missed tackle rate was well above the positional average of 10.2%.
Davis ranked bottom-10 at his position in all three categories. He picked up only four stops across 97 run-defense snaps, a 4.1% rate, which is brutal for a linebacker. The positional average this season was 6.9%.
Despite making only 10 tackles against the run, Davis still missed two tackles. His 16.7% missed tackle rate was well above the positional average of 10.2%.
- Run defense snaps played: 97
- Overall RDS rank: 590th of 592 (Percentile: 0th)
- Linebacker RDS rank: 102nd of 102 (Percentile: 0th)
- PFF run defense grade: 28.0 (101st) – LB Percentile: 0.99
- Missed tackle rate: 16.7% (93rd) – LB Percentile: 8.91
- Run-stop rate: 4.1% (96th) – LB Percentile: 5.94
Well, there you have it – the worst run defenders on the 2021 New York Jets (from a statistical perspective, at least).
Here is a look at where the Jets’ other 12 qualified defenders fared when it came to RDS (listed in parentheses is their percentile rank out of all 592 qualified defenders regardless of position):
Here is a look at where the Jets’ other 12 qualified defenders fared when it came to RDS (listed in parentheses is their percentile rank out of all 592 qualified defenders regardless of position):
- Marcus Maye: 78.1 (89th percentile)
- Quinnen Williams: 77.5 (89th percentile)
- Ronald Blair: 76.2 (87th percentile)
- Elijah Riley: 72.6 (84th percentile)
- Foley Fatukasi: 58.1 (63rd percentile)
- C.J. Mosley: 56.8 (60th percentile)
- John Franklin-Myers: 56.3 (60th percentile)
- Bryce Hall: 53.3 (53rd percentile)
- Javelin Guidry: 52.0 (51st percentile)
- Quincy Williams: 47.2 (45th percentile)
- Michael Carter II: 43.0 (38th percentile)
- Kyle Phillips: 41.2 (36th percentile)
