New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick ranks eighth in the NFL in Total QBR and seventh in a metric called points above replacement, which measures the points a quarterback contributes to his team’s scoring margin, when compared to a fringe, replacement-level QB.
This is highly unfamiliar territory for the Jets. Geno Smith ranked 25th in Total QBR in each of the last two seasons. Mark Sanchez’s peak was 19th in 2010. Brett Favre rated 22nd in his lone season. The only time in the last 10 seasons that a Jets quarterback ranked among the top 10 in Total QBR was in 2006 when Chad Pennington ranked eighth.
Fitzpatrick doesn’t have the gunslinger arm that can hit the deep throw with regularity (his nine completions of 20 or more yards downfield rank tied for 24th) or the highly-consistent completion percentage (his rates slightly below NFL average). So what is it about him that these advanced stats like so much?
As it turns out, it’s mostly about what he avoids.
Sack avoidance
The three sacks that Fitzpatrick took against the Giants were an aberration. Fitzpatrick has been sacked on only 3.1 percent of his dropbacks this season, the lowest rate among the 32 quarterbacks that qualify for that stat. The NFL rate is 5.7 percent.
In other words: An average quarterback would have been sacked 25 times given the number of times Fitzpatrick has dropped back. Fitzpatrick has been sacked 14 times. In this case, what Fitzpatrick doesn’t do (take sacks) turns out to be very important.
Avoiding tackles
Fitzpatrick isn’t Cam Newton, Russell Wilson or even Alex Smith, but he’s not bad. He entered the week with 209 rushing yards, ninth-most among NFL quarterbacks. His 187 yards rushing when scrambling (scrambles are more highly valued in Total QBR) rank seventh.
He had a big 18-yard touchdown run against the Redskins earlier this season and ran for 15 yards on fourth down in the final minute of the fourth quarter of the game-tying drive against the Giants.
Fitzpatrick has an above average rate when it comes to third-down rushing, converting 9-of-14 into first downs. All six of his third-down scrambles netted a first down, which provided a nice boost to his QBR.
If you take Fitzpatrick’s QBR just as it relates to running and avoiding sacks, he ranks No. 1 in the NFL.
Avoiding major mistakes
For the most part, Fitzpatrick has avoided the “oh no!” moments that have plagued Jets quarterbacks the last couple of seasons. And he’s had his share of good ones.
Fitzpatrick has 28 plays that ranked in the top five percent in terms of expected points added this season (an example would be the game-tying touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall late in the fourth quarter against the Giants and the fourth-down run on that drive referenced earlier). Those 28 rank tied with Eli Manning for 12th in the NFL (and is only three plays out of seventh).
But he only has 18 plays that rank in the bottom five percent (in terms of costing his team a chance to win). The only quarterback with fewer is Brian Hoyer, who has played three fewer games than Fitzpatrick this season.
In summary
When the Jets brought Fitzpatrick in this offseason, the talk was that his role was to be a game manager, to keep it safe, not do anything too risky, and make plays when he absolutely had to do so.
The numbers show that Fitzpatrick has done that and then some, and the Jets have reaped the benefits in a big way.
This is highly unfamiliar territory for the Jets. Geno Smith ranked 25th in Total QBR in each of the last two seasons. Mark Sanchez’s peak was 19th in 2010. Brett Favre rated 22nd in his lone season. The only time in the last 10 seasons that a Jets quarterback ranked among the top 10 in Total QBR was in 2006 when Chad Pennington ranked eighth.
Fitzpatrick doesn’t have the gunslinger arm that can hit the deep throw with regularity (his nine completions of 20 or more yards downfield rank tied for 24th) or the highly-consistent completion percentage (his rates slightly below NFL average). So what is it about him that these advanced stats like so much?
As it turns out, it’s mostly about what he avoids.
Sack avoidance
The three sacks that Fitzpatrick took against the Giants were an aberration. Fitzpatrick has been sacked on only 3.1 percent of his dropbacks this season, the lowest rate among the 32 quarterbacks that qualify for that stat. The NFL rate is 5.7 percent.
In other words: An average quarterback would have been sacked 25 times given the number of times Fitzpatrick has dropped back. Fitzpatrick has been sacked 14 times. In this case, what Fitzpatrick doesn’t do (take sacks) turns out to be very important.
Avoiding tackles
Fitzpatrick isn’t Cam Newton, Russell Wilson or even Alex Smith, but he’s not bad. He entered the week with 209 rushing yards, ninth-most among NFL quarterbacks. His 187 yards rushing when scrambling (scrambles are more highly valued in Total QBR) rank seventh.
He had a big 18-yard touchdown run against the Redskins earlier this season and ran for 15 yards on fourth down in the final minute of the fourth quarter of the game-tying drive against the Giants.
Fitzpatrick has an above average rate when it comes to third-down rushing, converting 9-of-14 into first downs. All six of his third-down scrambles netted a first down, which provided a nice boost to his QBR.
If you take Fitzpatrick’s QBR just as it relates to running and avoiding sacks, he ranks No. 1 in the NFL.
Avoiding major mistakes
For the most part, Fitzpatrick has avoided the “oh no!” moments that have plagued Jets quarterbacks the last couple of seasons. And he’s had his share of good ones.
Fitzpatrick has 28 plays that ranked in the top five percent in terms of expected points added this season (an example would be the game-tying touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall late in the fourth quarter against the Giants and the fourth-down run on that drive referenced earlier). Those 28 rank tied with Eli Manning for 12th in the NFL (and is only three plays out of seventh).
But he only has 18 plays that rank in the bottom five percent (in terms of costing his team a chance to win). The only quarterback with fewer is Brian Hoyer, who has played three fewer games than Fitzpatrick this season.
In summary
When the Jets brought Fitzpatrick in this offseason, the talk was that his role was to be a game manager, to keep it safe, not do anything too risky, and make plays when he absolutely had to do so.
The numbers show that Fitzpatrick has done that and then some, and the Jets have reaped the benefits in a big way.
