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FanRag -- The ultimate New York Jets offseason plan[/h] While free agency is still nearly two months away, the
New York Jets have plenty of work ahead of them to form the ultimate offseason plan. With a ton of cap space, extra draft capital and many needs to fill, general manager Mike Maccagnan and company will look to complete their most impactful roster transition yet.
Let’s break down the Jets offseason free-agent and draft targets that could turn the tank thoughts to playoffs for the 2018 season.
Free Agency
Projected cap space: $75-100 million
Happy Trails!…
Last year was a mass exodus in terms of once-franchise cornerstones let go. Both starting receivers, Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, just a year after finishing as a top duo in the league, were shown the door. David Harris and Nick Mangold, two building blocks for a decade, were released as well.
It won’t be that significant this year, but there’s still salary cap “fat” to trim. The notable one will be Muhammad Wilkerson, who is just two years removed from signing a five-year, $86 million contract with significant guarantees. There are two options on how to move on from the checked-out defensive lineman.
Cutting him will save the team $11 million in cap space, with $9 million in dead money. The other option is to designate him as a post-June 1 cut, which would free up $17 million in cap space for this offseason but spread out $3 million in dead money in each year from 2018-2020.
Matt Forte, who gutted out the year with an injured knee, will most likely be cut for a savings of $3 million, with $1 million on the books in dead money. While Buster Skrine has had his ups and downs, the Jets are too thin at cornerback to let him go. Expect talks to find a middle ground on a restructure that keeps him in New York.
Outside of money-saving reasons, there are two more cuts to be made: quarterbacks Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty. The experiment is over; each offers little benefit to remain on the roster. The Jets should come out of both free agency and the draft with a quarterback. Don’t take reps away from either but keeping Hackenberg and Petty, who simply have not proven to be NFL caliber passers during their tenure with the franchise.
Wait, stay a little longer!
On the flip side, the Jets have to convince a few of their pending free agents to stay. That doesn’t always come easy, or cheap. Here are some projected contracts for their key free agents:
- Demario Davis – three years, $24 million with $14 million guaranteed
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins – three years, $16.5 million with $10 million guaranteed
- Morris Claiborne – two years, $15 million with $8 million guaranteed
Keeping Demario Davis will not be an easy task. In a year where he got an All-Pro vote and just turned 29 years old this month, he’ll be looking for every last dollar he can get in his prime. The market for off-ball linebackers is not expensive, but expect him to be paid in the top 10 of this group, whether it be from the Jets or an external offer.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins has rebuilt his career, but there is no reason to pony up significant cash to keep a short area receiving threat who is a solid blocker. Both sides should meet middle ground here, as ASJ has rebuilt his once lost career in Florham Park.
As for Morris Claiborne, that projected contract would’ve been twice the size if the season ended after Week 6. Unfortunately, he proved yet again that full season health concerns are real. With that being said, the Jets need corners and he played well under Todd Bowles when up to strength.
Time to spend some cash
Priority #1: Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins
This one is as simple as it gets ,and I’ve outlined in-depth why the Jets need to be all-in on signing Cousins as their franchise quarterback. He’s in the top 10-12 quarterbacks in all of football, hasn’t turned 30 yet and fits the culture in Florham Park perfectly. On top of all of that, rumors have begun to leak that they are indeed interested.
It’s rare for a signal caller as talented as him to hit free agency, but sometimes a little luck can go a long way (just ask the Saints re: Drew Brees). Signing Cousins completely opens up the Jets draft, where they can add serious talent with their first three picks, which fall in the top 50.
Projected contract: five years, $150 million with $100 million guaranteed
Priority #2: Find a center
The Jets desperately need an upgrade at center. Waiting until the draft presents an extremely risky situation, and with a solid free agent class, there’s no need to hold off until then.
If they do indeed land Cousins, pending free agent Spencer Long would make a lot of sense. If you’re going to invest big money in a quarterback, why not bring some familiarity over with him?
Two other intriguing options are the Giants’ Weston Richburg or the Ravens’ Ryan Jensen. Richburg wouldn’t have to move very far, if at all, making him a potential candidate. As for Jensen, this would arguably be the best addition of the three. He’s extremely talented and hasn’t even turned 27, making him a potential cornerstone in the trenches for the next 4-5 years.
Priority #3: Value additions
There are two potential value additions that I really like in this year’s free agent class: Patriots running back Dion Lewis and Eagles tight end Trey Burton. When each have gotten playing time, they’ve excelled and exceeded expectations.
At 27, Lewis should be looking to get paid. It would be a surprise to see New England invest money at the running back position, although he’s been a key piece of their offense.
Burton has been the third-string tight end in Philadelphia and may be looking for a destination where he can slide into a featured role. This is yet another addition that makes sense if Cousins is added, as he could be used similarly to Jordan Reed.
What about pass rusher?
The Jets, for about the last decade, have lacked a legitimate edge pass rushing threat. This is not an easy problem to fix and the draft is often the best route to find aid.
This year’s free-agent class offers two top players in the Cowboys’ Demarcus Lawrence or the Lions’ Ezekiel Ansah, but each carry significant risks.
Lawrence, 25, who should absolutely be franchise-tagged by Dallas after a 14.5 sack campaign, has a suspension in his past for a PED violation. His production in 2014 and 2016 was non-existent, while his production in 2015 and 2017 was very impressive. Either way, it would be a surprise to see him hit the market.
As for Ansah, he will turn 29 this offseason. His production has been all over the place in his five-yearcareer, but he finished 2017 with 12 sacks. Six of those came in the final two games of the season. He was battling a back injury much of the season, which could hurt his market, assuming he does not get franchise-tagged.
If the Jets opt to add an edge threat in free agency, they should look for a value play. While it would be a surprise, Dave Gettleman clearing out bloated contracts brings a small chance Olivier Vernon finds himself back on the market. Would the Jets make another attempt to bring him in?
Shaquil Barrett from the Broncos will be a restricted free agent. At just 25, he’s flashed a ton of potential when put on the field. If the Broncos run tight on cap space, putting in an offer for him could pay big time dividends down the road.
NFL Draft
Current picks: Round 1: sixth overall, Round 2: 37th overall, Round 2: 49th overall, Round 3: 72nd overall, Round 4: 109th overall, Round 5: 159th overall, Round 6: 183rd overall, Round 7: 236th overall
If you’re late to the party, here’s my pre-free agency mock draft through all seven rounds for the Jets.
Landing Bradley Chubb, the best overall pass rusher in this class, instantly elevates the Jets defense through each phase of the game. He has an alpha male mindset with a relentless style of play up front. The two scenarios that disrupt this pick are as follows:
- He’s selected before the Jets pick (Hello, Indianapolis Colts)
- The Jets whiff on Cousins and need a quarterback
Scenario 1 is not the end of the world. There will still be a very good player available, such as running back Saquon Barkley or linebacker Roquan Smith. Maccagnan has had success with his best-player-available approach in the past, and assuming they can’t find a trade-out partner, it shouldn’t fail him here.
Scenario 2 is extremely concerning and puts the Jets in desperation mode. Ideally Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield falls to six and they select him. Maccagnan has clearly fallen for the “traditional” pocket passer in the past, selecting players such as Petty and Hackenberg outside of Round 1, but passing on prospects such as Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes early on. This strategy has failed the franchise and a new vision is needed. Will they make the bold change in strategy?
If there are concerns about the teams picking in front of them, find a way to move up for Mayfield, Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold. This team
has to come away with a signal caller of the future this offseason.
As for the rest of the mock draft, the two areas of significant need that I see are cornerback and running back. Fortunately for the Jets, both of those positions carry impressive depth in this year’s class.
The midround running back names to circle are USC’s Ronald Jones, San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny, Georgia’s duo of Sony Michel and Nick Chubb, and Auburn’s Kerryon Johnson.
The midround cornerback names to circle are Colorado’s Isaiah Oliver, Auburn’s Carlton Davis, Louisville’s Jaire Alexander, North Carolina’s M.J. Stewart, Alabama’s Anthony Averett, UCF’s Mike Hughes and San Diego State’s Kameron Kelly.
Final outlook
The Jets don’t have to hit on all of these potential additions, but filling a majority of these needs with the candidates mentioned above would be the quickest path to turning around the franchise.
They have the cap flexibility to solve their most dire holes before even entering the draft. A few of their key needs, such as running back, cornerback and center, offer a wide array of options in this year’s class.
The front office and coaching staff have been given patience from ownership, a not-so-common scenario seen in Florham Park. It’s time to make it pay off with what should be one of the biggest offseasons they’ve had in this past decade.
