This week, I checked in with progress reports for quarterbacks from the 2018 NFL draft. Five quarterbacks were drafted in the first round that year, and I took detailed looks at Lamar Jackson (Tuesday), Josh Allen (Wednesday), Baker Mayfield (Thursday) and Sam Darnold (Friday). Sorry, Josh Rosen; I'll get to you another time.
If you were crafting a quarterback prospect from scratch, you would likely end up with something close to Sam Darnold. The New York Jets quarterback has prototypical size and arm strength. He is tough and an above-average athlete. He anticipates windows coming open and makes accurate passes to give his receivers opportunities to run after the catch. He makes the sort of unstoppable, breathtaking throws that only a few human beings on the planet can make.
Darnold just doesn't make them often enough to push the Jets toward success -- so far. Watch him play and you see brilliance interspersed with disappointment. There are stretches in which he looks like a 10-year veteran, easily spraying the ball around the field on time as he finds open receivers. There also are plays, possessions and even games in which he looks worse than your typical young quarterback. It's tough to guess what's coming next when you follow one of your best starts as a pro with arguably the worst start in Jets history.
Evaluating Darnold after two seasons requires an elaborate system of caveats and justifications. Everyone is going to weigh those differently. How do you account for him suffering from mononucleosis? What have the Jets done to surround him with talent? Do you treat the second half of 2019 -- when he threw 13 touchdown passes against four picks and posted a passer rating of 93.5 -- as his true talent level and a launching point for 2020? Or do you look at that schedule, see six consecutive starts against teams that finished in the bottom quartile of pass defense DVOA this past season, and worry about what Darnold is going to do when five of his first nine starts in 2020 come against top-six pass defenses?
Let's take a look at what we can say about Darnold after his 2019 season. Will he take the next step and deliver on the promise that led the Jets to move up and draft him with the third overall pick? Or will the Darnold Hive suffer from colony collapse disorder?
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Check out this article. This is a fantastic analysis and probably the most important point coming into this season.
If you were crafting a quarterback prospect from scratch, you would likely end up with something close to Sam Darnold. The New York Jets quarterback has prototypical size and arm strength. He is tough and an above-average athlete. He anticipates windows coming open and makes accurate passes to give his receivers opportunities to run after the catch. He makes the sort of unstoppable, breathtaking throws that only a few human beings on the planet can make.
Darnold just doesn't make them often enough to push the Jets toward success -- so far. Watch him play and you see brilliance interspersed with disappointment. There are stretches in which he looks like a 10-year veteran, easily spraying the ball around the field on time as he finds open receivers. There also are plays, possessions and even games in which he looks worse than your typical young quarterback. It's tough to guess what's coming next when you follow one of your best starts as a pro with arguably the worst start in Jets history.
Evaluating Darnold after two seasons requires an elaborate system of caveats and justifications. Everyone is going to weigh those differently. How do you account for him suffering from mononucleosis? What have the Jets done to surround him with talent? Do you treat the second half of 2019 -- when he threw 13 touchdown passes against four picks and posted a passer rating of 93.5 -- as his true talent level and a launching point for 2020? Or do you look at that schedule, see six consecutive starts against teams that finished in the bottom quartile of pass defense DVOA this past season, and worry about what Darnold is going to do when five of his first nine starts in 2020 come against top-six pass defenses?
Let's take a look at what we can say about Darnold after his 2019 season. Will he take the next step and deliver on the promise that led the Jets to move up and draft him with the third overall pick? Or will the Darnold Hive suffer from colony collapse disorder?
Jump to a section:
Reviewing an up-and-down 2019
Darnold hasn't gotten much help ... yet
Reliving the 'seeing ghosts' game
Why the odds are stacked against him
Is 2020 Darnold's last chance?
Reviewing an up-and-down 2019
Darnold hasn't gotten much help ... yet
Reliving the 'seeing ghosts' game
Why the odds are stacked against him
Is 2020 Darnold's last chance?
Is this Sam Darnold's last chance? A progress report on the Jets QB and what to expect in 2020
Dig into the numbers, and the odds are stacked against Darnold. But considering his age and skill set, there's reason for optimism.
Check out this article. This is a fantastic analysis and probably the most important point coming into this season.
