Fitz is the top backup in the league, according to this top-10 list

[Mainejet]

I think they'll play "keep away" football with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitz will be a classic "Don't lose the game" QB. The CS has seen enough of Fitz to know what he is....

He's NOT a franchise QB, nor will he ever be.

He's a classic "hold the fort" guy. The kind of guy a team uses while they are trying to find another franchise QB to develop.

He's a marginal at best QB. He's never been an above average QB, probably constantly below average. He's also a proven loser as he has never had a winning record with any team he has played for.

But the Jets can use him this season as they try to develop Bryce Petty into the job.

What the Jets are hoping he can do is the following:

1) Hold on to the football. The Jets have suffered severely in recent years because their QB could never protect the football. They want Fitz to NEVER take any risks. They are also never going to allow him to try any risky plays.

2) They want him to hand the football off safely. The Jets want to win THIS season with a run based offense.

3) They want him to ONLY take what the defense is giving him - never anything more. Safe short passes, timing routes designed to go after the receiver that draws single coverage. If the play is not there, throw the ball away.

4) Capitalize on opportunities. If the Jets defense gives the ball back to the offense in the opponents red zone? They want Fitz to capitalize with a touchdown. This is something Geno has never been able to do. In fact he's awful in the red zone.

They want to be smart with the football and they believe he is capable of doing just that.

Our season hinges on how well he can fulfill that role.

 

[SackExchange]

Tom Brady has made a Canton-bound career of safe, short passes and timing routes.

That and a football that has a little more give to it.

 

[Superman55]

Tom Brady has made a Canton-bound career of safe, short passes and timing routes.

That and a football that has a little more give to it.

Tom Brady didn't have a top 7 defense last year
Tom Brady didn't have one of the top running backs in the NFL last year
Tom Brady didn't have receivers near as good as Andre Johnson and Hopkins last year
Tom Brady didn't have a top oline last year
Tom Brady had worse than all the above...and managed better than a 500 record last year

It wasn't the first time Brady was the QB of an above 500 Team last year (Fitzpatrick hasnever led a winning football team before...ever)

It's silly statements like comparing Brady to Fitzpatrcik that gets unrealistic expectations set...

 

[sg3]

FTR

GeNO has never had a winning NFL season and has been ranked in the 30s in each of his two years.

Last year, he "led" the Jets to THREE wins total

Yet there are still a few holdouts who continually bring up his physical talents, blame everything and everybody but him for his awful play and pretend he will turn some mythical corner any day now

OTOH these same few discard Ryan Fitzpatrick's far better 2014 and career statistics and condemn him for never having winning season

Just like GeNO except for GeNO's far worse QB stats

 

[SackExchange]

Tom Brady didn't have a top 7 defense last year
Tom Brady didn't have one of the top running backs in the NFL last year
Tom Brady didn't have receivers near as good as Andre Johnson and Hopkins last year
Tom Brady didn't have a top oline last year
Tom Brady had worse than all the above...and managed better than a 500 record last year

It wasn't the first time Brady was the QB of an above 500 Team last year (Fitzpatrick hasnever led a winning football team before...ever)

It's silly statements like comparing Brady to Fitzpatrcik that gets unrealistic expectations set...

I'm not comparing them. I'm saying that short passes and checkdowns get a bad name, but there have been some QBs who have been extremely successful doing it.

 

[Superman55]

I'm not comparing them. I'm saying that short passes and checkdowns get a bad name, but there have been some QBs who have been extremely successful doing it.

Im just worried that some may think we're a Ryan Fitzpatrick away from 12-14 win season if everything broke right. Everything broke right for Fitzpatrick last year, and they were 6-6. He had a career passing year in most statistic categories, had Foster back and healthy giving them 1600 yards and 13 IDs, had a top oline, had WRs stay halthy and combine for 2000+ yards, 160 receptions, and 15+ TDs, and a defense gave up 19.2 points in a division with the Titans and Jags...that's breaking pretty perfect...and he could still only steer them to 6-6. I think our defense will be even better, i dont think our oline and run game will be as dynamic. I think we can get similar production to Andre and Hopkins from Decker and Marshall...maybe better TE play in Amaro. But I do think the book is out on Fitzpatrcik, heck, he's been on enough teams so people know him personally. I think if we start with Fitzpatrick we're probably 9-7 and with Geno 8-8. We need to improve this oline and QB play because we have everything else right now. Maybe eventually draft a young horse at RB in a mid rd. This team is really close to being really good. I even think you have a good enough supporting cast to develop a nice young talent. I dont know if Petty or Geno are that guy, I guess we'll see, but I think we're one more good off season away from that 12 win territory. If Mac uses Mo as a chip to get his franchise QB to go with this foundation, we'll be on our way.

 

[hobson54]

in 4 of the 6 games fitz lost last year, the defense gave up over 30 points.

now i'm not one saying fitz will take us to 12+ wins. i'm sticking with my 8-8ish (9-7 on a sunny day) prediction.

but pointing to houston's strong defense seems a bit off the mark if they had 4 games they lost giving up over 30 points

 

[Superman55]

in 4 of the 6 games fitz lost last year, the defense gave up over 30 points.

now i'm not one saying fitz will take us to 12+ wins. i'm sticking with my 8-8ish (9-7 on a sunny day) prediction.

but pointing to houston's strong defense seems a bit off the mark if they had 4 games they lost giving up over 30 points

That stat goes both ways...in the games they won with Fitzpatrick, they gave up:

6, 13, 16. 17, 14, and 21

not bad.

Oh, and those 30 point games by the defense...

One was the Giants, Fitzpatrick threw 3 INts in that game.

One was the Colts in Indi.

Another was at Pitsburgh where Fitz had an INT and they had 2 lost fumbles.

And the Eagles game where Fitz had an INT and completed 40% of his passes. 40% against the eagles secondary? The Eagles defense was #31 against the pass in the NFL last year...

 

[SackExchange]

That stat goes both ways...in the games they won with Fitzpatrick, they gave up:

6, 13, 16. 17, 14, and 21

not bad.

Oh, and those 30 point games by the defense...

One was the Giants, Fitzpatrick threw 3 INts in that game.

One was the Colts in Indi.

Another was at Pitsburgh where Fitz had an INT and they had 2 lost fumbles.

And the Eagles game where Fitz had an INT and completed 40% of his passes. 40% against the eagles secondary? The Eagles defense was #31 against the pass in the NFL last year...

The guy threw 8 INTs all season. You just highlighted 5 of them.

To me, that's pretty selective. That's practically cherry picking stats.

 

[hobson54]

That stat goes both ways...in the games they won with Fitzpatrick, they gave up:

6, 13, 16. 17, 14, and 21

not bad.

Oh, and those 30 point games by the defense...

One was the Giants, Fitzpatrick threw 3 INts in that game.

One was the Colts in Indi.

Another was at Pitsburgh where Fitz had an INT and they had 2 lost fumbles.

And the Eagles game where Fitz had an INT and completed 40% of his passes. 40% against the eagles secondary? The Eagles defense was #31 against the pass in the NFL last year...

that's fair.

in the end, i'm not calling fitz a savior. my 8-8/9-7 prediction is sort of indifferent to who is the starting QB on the jets. i'm assuming geno gets first crack, and he doesn't get the job done, fitz will step in. i make no predictions whether geno keeps or loses the job. i still see this as a .500-ish team, albeit with some upside if the QB play (regardless of QB) is solid.

as to fitz specifically, i think our defense should be better than houston's last year. the WR corps are comparable. houston definitely would have the advantage in the running game. not too well versed on houston's o-line to compare with ours. so playing the hypothetical game, if we take last year's fitz and put him on this year's jets team, i can see similar results, with some upside if things click and our defense is as good as many of us here hope it is. which makes the jets a borderline-playoff contender.

 

[Superman55]

The guy threw 8 INTs all season. You just highlighted 5 of them.

To me, that's pretty selective. That's practically cherry picking stats.

Hobson pointed out the Texans defense let Fitz down in those games they gave up 30...when by your own note, you can see it was Fitz that let the defense down that led to 30 points. Hobson cherry picked the 30 points number, so I clarified it was Fitz that helped give up 30, not the defense. To your point, in the 4 games they gave up 30, Fitz was a big part of it. Thanks for the help.

 

[Superman55]

that's fair.

in the end, i'm not calling fitz a savior. my 8-8/9-7 prediction is sort of indifferent to who is the starting QB on the jets. i'm assuming geno gets first crack, and he doesn't get the job done, fitz will step in. i make no predictions whether geno keeps or loses the job. i still see this as a .500-ish team, albeit with some upside if the QB play (regardless of QB) is solid.

as to fitz specifically, i think our defense should be better than houston's last year. the WR corps are comparable. houston definitely would have the advantage in the running game. not too well versed on houston's o-line to compare with ours. so playing the hypothetical game, if we take last year's fitz and put him on this year's jets team, i can see similar results, with some upside if things click and our defense is as good as many of us here hope it is. which makes the jets a borderline-playoff contender.

I said the same thing above...with Geno, likely 8-8 and with Fitz likely 9-7, and I said the same thing, Jets D better, WRs about equal, our TE better, their Oline and RB better...

Houston finished 9-7, 6-6 with Fitz, I suspect for us to be the same until we improve oline and QB...we're a QB away from a 12 win team. We're saying the same thing.

 

[SackExchange]

Hobson pointed out the Texans defense let Fitz down in those games they gave up 30...when by your own note, you can see it was Fitz that let the defense down that led to 30 points. Hobson cherry picked the 30 points number, so I clarified it was Fitz that helped give up 30, not the defense. To your point, in the 4 games they gave up 30, Fitz was a big part of it. Thanks for the help.

Unfortunately for him, he is the only QB in the history of football to throw the ball to the other team. And to do it so many times?

Certainly, no other defense would have such an obstacle as have their own QB throw the ball to the other team.

 

[SackExchange]

I still think there is a 10-win ceiling on this team, but it would require either Geno completely clicking or Fitzpatrick starting and having the kind of year he had last year. Neither are realistically possible.

 

[Superman55]

I still think there is a 10-win ceiling on this team, but it would require either Geno completely clicking or Fitzpatrick starting and having the kind of year he had last year. Neither are realistically possible.

I would say 10 is the ceiling and I agree with Hob 8-9 are likely.

Fitzpatrick had a career year last year under the direction of OBrien and with a ton of help from Arian Foster playing to his old form (1600 yards). We dont have Obrien or Foster, unfortunately. So expecting Fitz to have another career year isnt likely. As you and Hobson indirectly pointed out, Fitz had 4 games last year he didnt even give his team a chance to win...a 34 year old vet that plays like Geno 4 out of 12 starts...and that was in a career year. That is who he is. If things break right and the D plays lights out, I think this can be a 10 win game also...but we're like the Ravens when they went 5 games w/o a TD and went 3-2 in those games...we'll need that kind of D to get 10 wins...regardless of the name behind center, IMO.

 

[Superman55]

Unfortunately for him, he is the only QB in the history of football to throw the ball to the other team. And to do it so many times?

Certainly, no other defense would have such an obstacle as have their own QB throw the ball to the other team.

if you're pretending the team that wins the TO battle doesn't usually win in the NFL...then you dont know the NFL, sir. You should know better than that.

I thought the goal of adding a vet like Fitz is for him not to have the dumb turnovers a rookie QB does that losses us games when all the examples provided were...last year from a QB in his mid 30s who should...know better if you believed the posters on this site. truth is, he's a slight step up from a rookie, but not a giant leap. He'll still have games at 35 in a known offense like Gaily where he gets benched...just like Geno. See his game vs the Giants last year as an example.

My point is, we didn't just sign 35 year old Montana who slid to KC from SF...we sign a guy cut by the Bills, Titans, Rams, and Texans...that is now playing QB for the...Jets...

 

[hobson54]

i was just looking at fitz' game logs from last year. he actually only started 5 losses. he played in the 12/14 loss to the colts, but savage started the game and fitz came in later and was 3/6 for 30 yards and no TDs or Ints. hard to blame him on that one.

looking at the 5 losses he started:

9/21 - lost to giants 30-17 - fitz was 20/34, 289 yards, 1 TD, 3 Ints, 59.6 rating - bad game
10/5 - lost to cowboys in OT 20-17 - fitz was 16/25, 154 yds, 0 TDs, 1 Int, 64.4 rating - bad game
10/9 - lost to colts 33-28 - fitz was 15/23, 212 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 109.3 rating - hard to blame the QB here
10/20 - lost to pitt 30-23 - fitz was 21/32, 262 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 98.7 rating - hard to blame the QB here
11/2 - lost to philly 31-21 - fitz was 13/27, 203 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 82.8 rating - so-so game

so in those 5 losses, 2 were bad games, 1 was a so-so game, and 2 were fairly solid games for a QB

 

[Golden Rott]

I still think there is a 10-win ceiling on this team, but it would require either Geno completely clicking or Fitzpatrick starting and having the kind of year he had last year. Neither are realistically possible.

I agree that there is a 10-win ceiling -- but I don't think either Fitz or Geno needs to be great in order to do that. There are three things that absolutely killed this team last year: red zone offense, turnover margin & big plays against.

We had the worst red zone conversion percent in the NFL last year. We lost 1 game in OT and three others by 3 points or less. With the addition of Marshall, our QB (Geno or Fitz) will have 3 big red zone targets in Amaro, Decker and Marshall. Convert a few more times in the red zone and maybe we win 2 or 3 of the tight games we lost last year.

Jets were 29th in the league in TO margin. With the upgrades in the secondary, we should force a lot more turnovers than last year, giving our O some short fields. If the offense does not need to go 80+ yards to score all the time, we should be able to be more efficient. Upgraded secondary should also limit all of the big plays we gave up last year.

Add in a 4th place schedule and our QB does not need to be great to get to 10 wins this season. Just take care of the ball, take advantage of opportunities with short field and convert in the red zone and we can contend for a playoff spot.

I know that it is an optimistic view, but if you can't look for a bright side in June, when can you. Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. 10-6.

 

[SackExchange]

if you're pretending the team that wins the TO battle doesn't usually win in the NFL...then you dont know the NFL, sir. You should know better than that.

I thought the goal of adding a vet like Fitz is for him not to have the dumb turnovers a rookie QB does that losses us games when all the examples provided were...last year from a QB in his mid 30s who should...know better if you believed the posters on this site. truth is, he's a slight step up from a rookie, but not a giant leap. He'll still have games at 35 in a known offense like Gaily where he gets benched...just like Geno. See his game vs the Giants last year as an example.

My point is, we didn't just sign 35 year old Montana who slid to KC from SF...we sign a guy cut by the Bills, Titans, Rams, and Texans...that is now playing QB for the...Jets...

Well, I don't know football that well, or anything, for that matter. I thought turning the ball over was a good thing.

 

[Superman55]

Well, I don't know football that well, or anything, for that matter. I thought turning the ball over was a good thing.

Let me help:

These turnovers are a good thing:



These turnovers are a good thing:



These turnovers are bad:



Any questions?