You obviously hate the kid and are entitled to that opinion. Like Sanchez, I believe many fans go to emotional extremes when talking about players they don't like (how many times did I have to hear that Mark was "the worst QB in the history of the NFL"). Reading your post, it would seem impossible that the kid went 8-8 his rookie year. I realize he didn't carry the team on his back for those 8 victories, but it's also hard to fathom winning ANYTHING if he truly was as horrifically bad as you make him out to be. (Never mind the fact that the CS labeled him the starter at the beginning of last season, even AFTER his slow start).
IMO the reality is Geno has potential, but is running out of time for that potential to manifest itself. As of today the team still thinks there's sand in the hourglass so I'm willing to wait, and it sounds like he's getting off to a good start. In my analogy, Geno doing well in OTAs is the "first number". Seeing how he looks in training camp is the second, preseason games, third, etc. If at some point the numbers don't match, then throw the ticket away. But you want to give up on the ticket because past tickets have all failed, and I just don't agree. We have three young QBs in the pipeline, so it's not like Geno is stopping us from trying to get better at the position. Let's hope we catch lightning in a bottle, and if we don't then he'll likely continue his Sanchez 2.0 impersonation right out the door . . .
I mean, first off, come on, they wouldn't have drafted two QBs in two years, and they wouldn't be looking to sign Fitz if the Jets thought Geno was a legitimate option going forward. So there's "sand in the hourglass" but it's running out very fast.
And the reason why your analogy doesn't work is (a) because the negative things we've seen apparently have no place in the analogy; they don't count for anything in the analogy, they aren't a factor apparently in whether "the numbers match" or we should "give up on the ticket" ... but they exist, and should be considered, and (b) because lotteries are random, and this isn't. My numbers in a lottery have no inherent value; yesterday's losing numbers can be today's winning numbers, because every number is equal in value and quality to every other number, and each has an equal chance of appearing. Yesterday's losing NFL QB doesn't just become today's winning QB because every player has an equal chance of being a winner on any given day. It just doesn't work like that. And you don't have to invest years of your life waiting to see if a lottery ticket pays off. If I did, I probably would be less inclined to do that, too. If I had to invest more and more to see each subsequent number, I would be less inclined to see the ticket through to the end.
Geno played awful in that 8-8 season. And he played even worse the next season, playing so badly that he lost his job. They won despite him, and you seem like you want to ignore that VERY impressive 3-10 he put up the next year. Do you know that in 31 career games, he has thrown EIGHT pick sixes. 27 TDs for our team, and 8 for the other. Not very good. Oh, and lets not forget about that tidy little Game 8 of 2014, when Geno impressively led his team, with 2 completions in 8 attempts, with 3 interceptions and NO yards! What a performance! I'm like Bart Scott over here, I just CAN'T WAIT to watch more of that!
Seriously, who is worse than Geno? I can name 100 better players. Can you name anyone who is worse? More to the point, are the players comparable to him players you would want on the team? What are the chances that Geno finishes his career in the top 100 QBs all time? Are they so much greater than yours or mine? How many seasons are we supposed to spend watching this guy play before we decide, yes, he really just is as bad as he seems to be? How many years of my life am I required to waste watching him before I'm allowed to decide that he's bad? If I'm not allowed to think that THIS is a bad player, then is there anyone in the league I'm allowed to not like? Is it really necessary to put caveats like "he's bad, for an NFL QB, but obviously, overall, he's very talented, and if he showed up to any random pickup game, he would be the best player on the field?" Of course that's true. And of course I hope he plays better. But what difference does that make?
As a player, yes, I hate Geno. I hate watching him play, because he is frustrating, and he makes terrible decisions, and he loses us football games. I could go around talking about how any Jets fan should feel the same way, but I won't. As a person, I'm not particularly impressed in the sense that he doesn't command respect and he doesn't act very professionally. But I don't know the kid. He might be a great guy. Lots of people are who shouldn't be the QB of the Jets. I think Mel Brooks and Carl Reiner are great people; I don't think they should be QB of the Jets. So my personal feelings have nothing to do with anything. It's purely about watching him play, and winning games. But what I really hate is this conversation, as people try to tell me that I should ignore what my eyes tell me AND what the stats tell me, in favor of some weird notion of potential that is almost certainly not going to develop into anything. I just don't know what to say; if the level of play you've seen from him is acceptable to you, then I think you have very low standards.
This argument is EXACTLY like the Mark Sanchez argument. A bunch of people want to believe that we have something better than what their eyes and the stats tell them, so they create a bunch of arguments about potential that never materializes. Because these arguments apply to everyone (i.e. you don't get to the NFL without having potential), they aren't very persuasive. But rather than acknowledge that, they accuse people of "hating" the player, which makes no sense, but of course that HAS to be the reason other people don't agree with their potential argument, it can't just be that it's an unpersuasive argument, NO, there has to be personal hatred there, there just has to be! And then, when the critics turn out to be right, they still don't get any credit, because they were "haters" and their correct assessment was based on "hate." So the wait and see crowd is never wrong, because they're not saying anyone is a good player, they're just saying "we have to wait and see," which is true, but meaningless, because that's how time works, of course we have to wait to see. Saying that adds nothing to a conversation. And it's a real cop out on a message board. So the whole conversation is just annoying to me. I watched people bash Nick all over the place about Mark Sanchez, calling him all sorts of names and acting like he hated Mark ... but he was right all along. And I thought "finally, this conversation is over" but no, it sprang right back up, exactly the same as it was before, only now Geno is the one we're waiting for his potential.
But I at least saw why people thought Mark had potential. He always seemed on the verge of being good. Geno, I just don't see it.
But sure, in the best of all worlds, Geno would become Joe Montana, and we'd win the next 10 Super Bowls, and as a Jets fan, I hope that happens. I really, really, hope! Oh, I will wish upon a star! If I just squeeze my eyes tight enough and hope hard enough, good things will happen!