Jets' dream offseason - TOJ

[jetgreen13]

Agree 100%.

BTW, it was "Never" Milliner didn't receive even one snap on defense the final 8 games of the season. That's with Cro clearly hurting, and playing poorly. Not one snap. Yes that speaks volumes of Bowles opinion on Milliner.

That more then anything is why I am so down on Milliner. When he was due to come back from partial season IR I was actually excited. The Jets had just lost to the Pats, and the Raiders, Cro seemed to be having hip problems again. I thought Milliner could come in fresh, and give the team a spark.

He never got on the field. Either Bowles isn't very smart (I think he is) or he doesn't have much of an opinion of Milliner. Much like what happened with "what's his face" when Fitz broke his thumb, and the Jets rushed him back with out missing a game so "what's his face" wouldn't have to get on the field again.

good, bad right or wrong, bowles does not think the kid can play..

so it would seem milliner will be 4 million dollars of "dead money" next season regardless of cutting bait or not..

 

[HYATT™]

As HYATT™ posted in the Mo thread, these cap numbers are all over the board and bear little resemblance to reality.
By HYATT™'s estimate the Jets will enter the 2016 season playing with $50M or so, AFTER signing both Mo & Snacks.
That's based on TWO DECADES of projecting probable roster moves in pre-season for many NFL teams, in articles written by HYATT™ over that time period.
Usually HYATT™ runs fairly close to what transpires in the market.

Believe it or not, there is some serious revamping of the roster coming soon.

 

[McJet]

As HYATT™ posted in the Mo thread, these cap numbers are all over the board and bear little resemblance to reality.
By HYATT™'s estimate the Jets will enter the 2016 season playing with $50M or so, AFTER signing both Mo & Snacks.
That's based on TWO DECADES of projecting probable roster moves in pre-season for many NFL teams, in articles written by HYATT™ over that time period.
Usually HYATT™ runs fairly close to what transpires in the market.
Believe it or not, there is some serious revamping of the roster coming soon.

HYATT, put your GM hat on,how would you start the revamp process for the Jets going into the league year and before the draft. What moves are imminent in your opinion and how would the Jets be a better team on paper heading into the draft as opposed to last years 10-6 squad.

 

[mydogisajetsfan]

As HYATT™ posted in the Mo thread, these cap numbers are all over the board and bear little resemblance to reality.
By HYATT™'s estimate the Jets will enter the 2016 season playing with $50M or so, AFTER signing both Mo & Snacks.
That's based on TWO DECADES of projecting probable roster moves in pre-season for many NFL teams, in articles written by HYATT™ over that time period.
Usually HYATT™ runs fairly close to what transpires in the market.

Believe it or not, there is some serious revamping of the roster coming soon.

That would only happen if D'Brick, Giaccomini and Winters were cut; Cromartie is cut; Kerley, Bohannan and Cumberland are cut; Folk is cut, AND;

Revis, Gilchrist and Skrine are all extended with guaranteed money; Mangold is extended, AND;

Milliner and Amaro are traded for picks, AND;

The cap is raised to $158mm.

Even then it's hard to imagine this scenario playing out.

 

[HYATT™]

HYATT, put your GM hat on,how would you start the revamp process for the Jets going into the league year and before the draft. What moves are imminent in your opinion and how would the Jets be a better team on paper heading into the draft as opposed to last years 10-6 squad.

The process is already underway.
Futures contracts are UDFAs from last year that somebody thinks might have something to offer & just need development.

When BIG FA period starts in March, the Jets will probably look at LT, RT, a couple of OLB pass rushers, Harris' Mike ILB replacement, another outside CB, and possibly an up&comer Center to groom & ease THOR out of his fat contract.

A FS wouldn't be out of the question either and usually there is a veteran CB who is ready to make the position shift on the market every year.
Antrel Rolle, in AZ, when they drafted DR-C in Rolle's 4th year and kicked him up to FS - became an UFA FS whom the NYG signed 2 seasons later. Dwight Lowery, whom HYATT™ said from Day One was a more natural FS and not a CB, became one in his last year in NJ and has made a decent career of it as a FS since.

HYATT™ doesn't expect the Jets to go off the deep end unless a young All-Pro somehow gets into FA, but they may sign a decent red chipper or two in the $5M range.


The UFA market is constantly changing it's face but a couple things seem to remain constant.
1.) The top "Savior" on one side or other of the ball will be given a monster contract by some 'desperate to save his job' GM - and fail to live up to it.
2.) By Week 3 of UFA season (end of March), all the "expensive" UFAs will have been snapped up - that's when it's time to go bargain hunting.

With the draft now moved back a couple weeks, GMs have time to sort out UFA bargains and expected availability of positional draft picks.
2 years ago, it was draft piled right on top of the UFA feeding frenzy and nobody had time to let the bloody chummed waters clear up.
A LOT of bad UFA decisions were made as a result.
Now there are 4 UFA shopping seasons.

1.) Opening day (March 9, 2016) - when the amateurs blow their entire salary cap for the next 5 years.
This is also where secret negotiations between owners come to light - ala Brandon Marshall trade deal, which wasn't covered by UFA or tampering rules.

2.) End of early UFA season (April 22, 2016 - RFA Offer Sheet deadline), prior to the NFL draft on April 28th - where bargains CAN be found.

3.) Post draft/post UDFA signing period/"Tender" period (April 30-June 1).
A LOT of backup roles get signed and filled-out during this period, at very reasonable rates.
Teams usually sign as many as a dozen, or as few as 2 or 3 less-known veterans, who've never started or were injured/demoted but still possess upside.

4.) Extended UFA season (June 2, 2016-Week 10 of the regular season) - stubborn holdouts, marginal players, backups, trades, and the occasional salary cap casualty which can be an EXCELLENT bargain - ala OG Evan Mathis, after insisting PHI re-do his current $5M/year contract & they ended up cutting him instead.
Denver hit the $2.5M/1-year jackpot on that one.

To go into any specific players detail, HYATT™ would have to do a TON of work and frankly, he's out of the "work" business in writing articles about the corruption-filled Not Fookin' Legit sport these days.
HYATT™ is only in the OPINION business now.
Take those for what they are worth based on his 2 decades of writing and research experiences.

 

[HYATT™]

That would only happen if D'Brick, Giaccomini and Winters were cut; Cromartie is cut; Kerley, Bohannan and Cumberland are cut; Folk is cut, AND;

Revis, Gilchrist and Skrine are all extended with guaranteed money; Mangold is extended, AND;

Milliner and Amaro are traded for picks, AND;

The cap is raised to $158mm.

Even then it's hard to imagine this scenario playing out.

Aside from getting Revis to give up a dime, getting rid of Milliner, or the cap going as high as $158M, ALL of them are not only possible, but actually PROBABLE.

 

[McJet]

The process is already underway.
Futures contracts are UDFAs from last year that somebody thinks might have something to offer & just need development.

When BIG FA period starts in March, the Jets will probably look at LT, RT, a couple of OLB pass rushers, Harris' Mike ILB replacement, another outside CB, and possibly an up&comer Center to groom & ease THOR out of his fat contract.

A FS wouldn't be out of the question either and usually there is a veteran CB who is ready to make the position shift on the market every year.
Antrel Rolle, in AZ, when they drafted DR-C in Rolle's 4th year and kicked him up to FS - became an UFA FS whom the NYG signed 2 seasons later. Dwight Lowery, whom HYATT™ said from Day One was a more natural FS and not a CB, became one in his last year in NJ and has made a decent career of it as a FS since.

HYATT™ doesn't expect the Jets to go off the deep end unless a young All-Pro somehow gets into FA, but they may sign a decent red chipper or two in the $5M range.


The UFA market is constantly changing it's face but a couple things seem to remain constant.
1.) The top "Savior" on one side or other of the ball will be given a monster contract by some 'desperate to save his job' GM - and fail to live up to it.
2.) By Week 3 of UFA season (end of March), all the "expensive" UFAs will have been snapped up - that's when it's time to go bargain hunting.

With the draft now moved back a couple weeks, GMs have time to sort out UFA bargains and expected availability of positional draft picks.
2 years ago, it was draft piled right on top of the UFA feeding frenzy and nobody had time to let the bloody chummed waters clear up.
A LOT of bad UFA decisions were made as a result.
Now there are 4 UFA shopping seasons.

1.) Opening day (March 9, 2016) - when the amateurs blow their entire salary cap for the next 5 years.
This is also where secret negotiations between owners come to light - ala Brandon Marshall trade deal, which wasn't covered by UFA or tampering rules.

2.) End of early UFA season (April 22, 2016 - RFA Offer Sheet deadline), prior to the NFL draft on April 28th - where bargains CAN be found.

3.) Post draft/post UDFA signing period/"Tender" period (April 30-June 1).
A LOT of backup roles get signed and filled-out during this period, at very reasonable rates.
Teams usually sign as many as a dozen, or as few as 2 or 3 less-known veterans, who've never started or were injured/demoted but still possess upside.

4.) Extended UFA season (June 2, 2016-Week 10 of the regular season) - stubborn holdouts, marginal players, backups, trades, and the occasional salary cap casualty which can be an EXCELLENT bargain - ala OG Evan Mathis, after insisting PHI re-do his current $5M/year contract & they ended up cutting him instead.
Denver hit the $2.5M/1-year jackpot on that one.

To go into any specific players detail, HYATT™ would have to do a TON of work and frankly, he's out of the "work" business in writing articles about the corruption-filled Not Fookin' Legit sport these days.
HYATT™ is only in the OPINION business now.
Take those for what they are worth based on his 2 decades of writing and research experiences.

Ok Thx. Nice little right up.

 

[HYATT™]

Plus, don't forget, CIN has signaled their intention to dump Andre Smith.
Smith struggled at the beginning of his career with weight problems & injury, (HYATT™ was properly reticent about him as a draft prospect in the '09 class, as was HYATT™ about Jason Smith, who bombed immediately), but has played like a Pro Bowl Tackle at times in his career.
At 29 years old he still has plenty of decent football left in him, as a RT & certainly as a backup LT in a pinch who could fill in - and possibly even survive an entire season there.
He could be an excellent bargain for the right team.
Wouldn't surprise HYATT™ to see him in New England next year, given the shoulder & back health issues of Solder and Vollmer.

 

[mydogisajetsfan]

Aside from getting Revis to give up a dime, getting rid of Milliner, or the cap going as high as $158M, ALL of them are not only possible, but actually PROBABLE.

Not suggesting Revis give up money, however to free up cap space they could guarantee his last two years by giving him it in a up front bonus. NOT something I'm suggesting.

Even if all of the other things play out they would be nowhere near the cap space you're suggesting they would have. At least not as far as I could tell. I wish it were true though.

 

[HYATT™]

Not suggesting Revis give up money, however to free up cap space they could guarantee his last two years by giving him it in a up front bonus. NOT something I'm suggesting.

Even if all of the other things play out they would be nowhere near the cap space you're suggesting they would have. At least not as far as I could tell. I wish it were true though.

HUH?
HYATT™ has ALREADY explained where it's coming from.
Unless you believe they are NOT going to cut a number of well-paid older veterans and slackers who did not perform well enough to merit their paycheck, it's almost inevitable that the Jets WILL have nearly $50M shifting hands this off-season.
Dead wood was the LAST administration's m.o., not this one.

The 2 biggest pieces of that $50M are 'Brick's contracted $14M, and the additional $10M-$12M or so expected in the 2016 cap rise.
That's nearly half of the $50M right there.
CIN's Andre Smith & possibly Eugene Monroe will also end up a cap casualty in BAL.
Both will sign for $5M somewhere.
There are at least 9 LT prospects that should be taken in the top 2 rounds.
The Jets can snag one of those and cut their LT cap hit by $12M, and don't go telling HYATT™ you can't trust tier 2 LTs.
Plenty of other non-Rd 1 LTs are starting around the league - often as rookies, due to injuries to starters.
Off the top of HYATT™'s head:
Bakhtiari was a 2014 4th round pick and he started for GB the past 2 seasons.
UDFA James Hurst, 2014 in TEN.
2013 Terron Armstad - started a few games for NOLA.
2012 7th rounder Kevin Beachum started a half-dozen games for PIT.
2010 Jared Veldheer was a 3rd rounder and started 11 or 12 games for OAK - the opener at Center & the rest at LT.
2008 7th rounder, King Dunlap, played a dozen games in PHI in 2009, after missing his rookie season with an injury - effectively a rookie LT.
2007 4th rounder Jermon Bushrod in NOLA.
2005 Michael Roos was drafted by TEN in Rd 2 and played all 16 games that year.
Jason Peters was a 2004 UDFA & look at the career HE has had !!!!
That's all that comes to mind right now but it illustrates the point.

 

[mydogisajetsfan]

HUH?
HYATT™ has ALREADY explained where it's coming from.
Unless you believe they are NOT going to cut a number of well-paid older veterans and slackers who did not perform well enough to merit their paycheck, it's almost inevitable that the Jets WILL have nearly $50M shifting hands this off-season.
Dead wood was the LAST administration's m.o., not this one.

The 2 biggest pieces of that $50M are 'Brick's contracted $14M, and the additional $10M-$12M or so expected in the 2016 cap rise.
That's nearly half of the $50M right there.
CIN's Andre Smith & possibly Eugene Monroe will also end up a cap casualty in BAL.
Both will sign for $5M somewhere.
There are at least 9 LT prospects that should be taken in the top 2 rounds.
The Jets can snag one of those and cut their LT cap hit by $12M, and don't go telling HYATT™ you can't trust tier 2 LTs.
Plenty of other non-Rd 1 LTs are starting around the league - often as rookies, due to injuries to starters.
Off the top of HYATT™'s head:
Bakhtiari was a 2014 4th round pick and he started for GB the past 2 seasons.
UDFA James Hurst, 2014 in TEN.
2013 Terron Armstad - started a few games for NOLA.
2012 7th rounder Kevin Beachum started a half-dozen games for PIT.
2010 Jared Veldheer was a 3rd rounder and started 11 or 12 games for OAK - the opener at Center & the rest at LT.
2008 7th rounder, King Dunlap, played a dozen games in PHI in 2009, after missing his rookie season with an injury - effectively a rookie LT.
2007 4th rounder Jermon Bushrod in NOLA.
2005 Michael Roos was drafted by TEN in Rd 2 and played all 16 games that year.
Jason Peters was a 2004 UDFA & look at the career HE has had !!!!
That's all that comes to mind right now but it illustrates the point.

First of all there's no need to get TESTY but using CAPS.

Cutting Brick will not save $14mm, it will be approximately $9.1mm. Cutting Brick, Cromartie ($8), Giacomini ($4.4), Cumberland ($1.8), Kerley ($1.3), Folk ($2.2), and Winters ($1.65) would total approximately $28.4mm in cap savings. There's no one else to cut who would provide meaningful savings unless you're suggesting they also cut Brandon Marshall, Decker, Mangold, Carpenter and Gilchrist as well.

As far as I can see Macc will not have anywhere near $50mm to spend. And in fact, I believe your original statement was he would have $50mm to spend AFTER (your emphasis) they sign both Mo and Harrison. The numbers just aren't there.

 

[HYATT™]

First of all there's no need to get TESTY but using CAPS.

Cutting Brick will not save $14mm, it will be approximately $9.1mm. Cutting Brick, Cromartie ($8), Giacomini ($4.4), Cumberland ($1.8), Kerley ($1.3), Folk ($2.2), and Winters ($1.65) would total approximately $28.4mm in cap savings. There's no one else to cut who would provide meaningful savings unless you're suggesting they also cut Brandon Marshall, Decker, Mangold, Carpenter and Gilchrist as well.

As far as I can see Macc will not have anywhere near $50mm to spend. And in fact, I believe your original statement was he would have $50mm to spend AFTER (your emphasis) they sign both Mo and Harrison. The numbers just aren't there.

<sigh>
Aight, one MORE time.
Pay attention as HYATT™ gets out his finger paints.
(Rounding in effect, for convenience.)

2016 cap = $154M
2015 roll-over addition = +$2.5M
2016 cap available = $156.5M
2016 cap commitments = $139.5M
2016 initial cap room = +$17M (and that's on the CONSERVATIVE side - even in emphasis CAPS.)

2016 'Brick = $14M (dead cap of $4M of the $35M guaranteed, if cut, which he WILL be. It's just when, not IF.)
Cap room = +$10M
Running total = +$27M

Cromartie = $8M, (cut)
Cap room = +$8M
Running total = $35M

Breno Mini-mi = $5.6M (dead cap hit of $1.2M of the $7M guaranteed.)
Cap room = +$4M (cut completely, won't be back.)
Running total = +$39M

GeNOT Smith = $1.5M (dead cap hit = $500k) GONER !!!
Cap room = +$1M
Running total = +$40M

Calvin Pace = $2.5M (no dead cap)
Again, no longer a question of IF, just WHEN. Soon, HYATT™ A$$umes.
Cap room = +$2.5M
Running total = +$42.5M

Nick Folk = $3.3M (dead cap = $1.1M)
Nick Folk probably still has some life left in him but he's definitely trending downward.
At this point Folk brings a 31st place résumé to the table, tied with MIA's Andrew Franks (WHO?), kicking at only 50% from 40-49 yards.
With a limited offense, the Jets need a bigger leg at FG kicker. Offset is $500k for a rookie Kicker.
Cap room = +$1.5M
Running total = +$44M

Chris Ivory = $2.75M ($0.75M dead cap)
$3M RBs who put up 1,000 yards and 7 TDs aren't irreplaceable, but they aren't growing on trees either.
Ivory should be VERY amenable to a re-do that extends him for another 2 years in return for easing the 2016 cap hit by $1M.
Cap room = +$1M
Rolling total = +$45M

Jeff Cumberland = $2M (no dead cap)
$2M TEs with below-average production (77 yards receiving - 0 TDs) DO grow on trees however.
He can take a hike.
So can recent signings like;
Zac Stacy = $675k
Adrien Robinson = $675k
Brandon Bostick = $600k
Dri Archer = $600k
Joseph Anderson = $600k
Mike Catapano = $600k
Cap room = +$5.5M
Running total = +$50.5M

Brandon Marshall = $9.5M (no dead cap)
BM has stated he will hang 'em up after the Jets. He does NOT want to play for yet another team.
Ergo; he has 2 years left on the present contract but will be VERY amenable to a small reduction on an extended contract past 2017.
Currently BM's contract is the 13th highest in the NFL, (9 of which were inked in 2015 & included large bonus amounts in the totals). BM was the 2015 5th best WR - but he was only the 42nd best WR in the league in 2014.
Nobody can predict where he'll end up in 2016, but based on a 2 year average, he hasn't EARNED better than a 20th highest salary - though HYATT™ will concede he's actually more valuable than that - top 12 at least.
It is not unreasonable to expect the club will re-do his deal, extend it by another year, and clear $1M-$2M in cap space for 2016 as a result.
Cap room = +$1M
Running total = +$51.5M

Nick Mangold = $8.6M (no dead cap)
THOR carries the 6th highest cap hit for NFL Centers & THE single largest total dollar contract for an NFL Center.
That is unsustainable.
As you probably know, HYATT™ is a #1 THOR fan, but reality bites - even for players we love.
His final 2 years were never meant to be honored and he knew it, so he FULLY expects to have to renegotiate this off-season.
His snap count over the past 2 seasons has been down by at least 100 snaps, (2 games worth), so mounting injuries for a 32 year old 11th year veteran WILL be a factor in how much THOR is willing to accept to retire as a Jets player.
The Evan Mathis fiasco in PHI last year proved OL players don't have a lot of leverage these days unless they are on the right side of 30 - which Nick is not.
26 year old UFA Wisneiwski is out there and making crap, ($2.5M JAX cap hit in 2015), and could easily match Mangold's production at this stage of their respective careers.
Alex Mack is going to capture the market for top UFA Center, (just cancelled his final 2 years in CLE), so there won't be a market for another one demanding top dollar in the 17-deep FA Centers market, for Mangold.
Cap room = +$2M (he'll re-do for around $6.5M)
Running total = +53.5M

Dee Milliner = $4M (dead cap = $4M)
Milliner re-doing his contract is pure speculation, because he has all the leverage here, but ASSUMING he wants to stick around, a renegotiation is not even unreasonable, it's almost a probability - given his injury history & his expectations to get more snaps now that Cro was cut.
Cap room = +$1M
Running total = +54.5M

David Harris = $7.5M
Harris has 2 years/$14M left on his 3 year deal. All $7.5M this year is still guaranteed, but his 2017 $6.5M is consequence-free.
Harris will have to choose between the Jets for 1 more year or sticking around for several more at a more reasonable ILB rate.
Just a guess, mind you, but HYATT™ has followed Harris closely ever since GB made the trade for the pick that got Harris into NJ originally in '07. It strikes HYATT™ that Harris has made plenty in NJ already and would prefer sticking around for a few more years over all of that $7.5M - which is rather high for what he does.
Does a $2.5M reduction in 2016, for an extra year with reasonable guaranteed money next year, seem like a stretch?
HYATT™ doesn't think so & the market for 32 year old ILBs who can't play coverage on passing downs (Maualuga, Hawk, Posluszny, Dansby, Jackson, Laurinitus, Lofton), would bear that out.
Cap room = +$2.5M
Running total = +$57M

See where this is going?
HYATT™ "MADDEN" cut a dozen players, re-did another half-dozen contracts, and ended up with $57M available. (Of course this is all hypothetical - DUH !!!)
That doesn't even account for another dozen faces that won't be around in 2016 because they are either futures contract players or 3rd/4th string ($600k) benchers already in the total $139.5M for 2016's cap commitment.
Cap room = +$6M
Running total = +$63M

NOW HYATT™ can start thinking about re-signing both Snacks & Mo to contracts that will have a lower 2016 base salary + hefty chunk of signing bonus pro-rated over 5 years.
$13M is one hella start on THAT business before even touching the projected $50M HYATT™ "seat-of-the-pants" available cap room.

The sad part here?
It took HYATT™ less than 5 minutes of reading the spotrac page for the Jets cap to figure out they'd have $50M to play with after doing something about Mo & Snacks - in his HEAD.
It took over 90 minutes to round up the details & put it in writing - and HYATT™ types reasonably well.
THAT is the biggest reason HYATT™ asks people to trust his posts.
Spelling it out for those not as blessed with the math thingy, eats a LOT of HYATT™'s time and effort - and still ends up being the same opinion/facts.
If anything, HYATT™ purposely erred on the conservative side.
The actual amount may be even higher.

Hope you caught up now.

 

[mydogisajetsfan]

<sigh>
Aight, one MORE time.
Pay attention as HYATT™ gets out his finger paints.
(Rounding in effect, for convenience.)

2016 cap = $154M
2015 roll-over addition = +$2.5M
2016 cap available = $156.5M
2016 cap commitments = $139.5M
2016 initial cap room = +$17M (and that's on the CONSERVATIVE side - even in emphasis CAPS.)

2016 'Brick = $14M (dead cap of $4M of the $35M guaranteed, if cut, which he WILL be. It's just when, not IF.)
Cap room = +$10M
Running total = +$27M

Cromartie = $8M, (cut)
Cap room = +$8M
Running total = $35M

Breno Mini-mi = $5.6M (dead cap hit of $1.2M of the $7M guaranteed.)
Cap room = +$4M (cut completely, won't be back.)
Running total = +$39M

GeNOT Smith = $1.5M (dead cap hit = $500k) GONER !!!
Cap room = +$1M
Running total = +$40M

Calvin Pace = $2.5M (no dead cap)
Again, no longer a question of IF, just WHEN. Soon, HYATT™ A$$umes.
Cap room = +$2.5M
Running total = +$42.5M

Nick Folk = $3.3M (dead cap = $1.1M)
Nick Folk probably still has some life left in him but he's definitely trending downward.
At this point Folk brings a 31st place résumé to the table, tied with MIA's Andrew Franks (WHO?), kicking at only 50% from 40-49 yards.
With a limited offense, the Jets need a bigger leg at FG kicker. Offset is $500k for a rookie Kicker.
Cap room = +$1.5M
Running total = +$44M

Chris Ivory = $2.75M ($0.75M dead cap)
$3M RBs who put up 1,000 yards and 7 TDs aren't irreplaceable, but they aren't growing on trees either.
Ivory should be VERY amenable to a re-do that extends him for another 2 years in return for easing the 2016 cap hit by $1M.
Cap room = +$1M
Rolling total = +$45M

Jeff Cumberland = $2M (no dead cap)
$2M TEs with below-average production (77 yards receiving - 0 TDs) DO grow on trees however.
He can take a hike.
So can recent signings like;
Zac Stacy = $675k
Adrien Robinson = $675k
Brandon Bostick = $600k
Dri Archer = $600k
Joseph Anderson = $600k
Mike Catapano = $600k
Cap room = +$5.5M
Running total = +$50.5M

Brandon Marshall = $9.5M (no dead cap)
BM has stated he will hang 'em up after the Jets. He does NOT want to play for yet another team.
Ergo; he has 2 years left on the present contract but will be VERY amenable to a small reduction on an extended contract past 2017.
Currently BM's contract is the 13th highest in the NFL, (9 of which were inked in 2015 & included large bonus amounts in the totals). BM was the 2015 5th best WR - but he was only the 42nd best WR in the league in 2014.
Nobody can predict where he'll end up in 2016, but based on a 2 year average, he hasn't EARNED better than a 20th highest salary - though HYATT™ will concede he's actually more valuable than that - top 12 at least.
It is not unreasonable to expect the club will re-do his deal, extend it by another year, and clear $1M-$2M in cap space for 2016 as a result.
Cap room = +$1M
Running total = +$51.5M

Nick Mangold = $8.6M (no dead cap)
THOR carries the 6th highest cap hit for NFL Centers & THE single largest total dollar contract for an NFL Center.
That is unsustainable.
As you probably know, HYATT™ is a #1 THOR fan, but reality bites - even for players we love.
His final 2 years were never meant to be honored and he knew it, so he FULLY expects to have to renegotiate this off-season.
His snap count over the past 2 seasons has been down by at least 100 snaps, (2 games worth), so mounting injuries for a 32 year old 11th year veteran WILL be a factor in how much THOR is willing to accept to retire as a Jets player.
The Evan Mathis fiasco in PHI last year proved OL players don't have a lot of leverage these days unless they are on the right side of 30 - which Nick is not.
26 year old UFA Wisneiwski is out there and making crap, ($2.5M JAX cap hit in 2015), and could easily match Mangold's production at this stage of their respective careers.
Alex Mack is going to capture the market for top UFA Center, (just cancelled his final 2 years in CLE), so there won't be a market for another one demanding top dollar in the 17-deep FA Centers market, for Mangold.
Cap room = +$2M (he'll re-do for around $6.5M)
Running total = +53.5M

Dee Milliner = $4M (dead cap = $4M)
Milliner re-doing his contract is pure speculation, because he has all the leverage here, but ASSUMING he wants to stick around, a renegotiation is not even unreasonable, it's almost a probability - given his injury history & his expectations to get more snaps now that Cro was cut.
Cap room = +$1M
Running total = +54.5M

David Harris = $7.5M
Harris has 2 years/$14M left on his 3 year deal. All $7.5M this year is still guaranteed, but his 2017 $6.5M is consequence-free.
Harris will have to choose between the Jets for 1 more year or sticking around for several more at a more reasonable ILB rate.
Just a guess, mind you, but HYATT™ has followed Harris closely ever since GB made the trade for the pick that got Harris into NJ originally in '07. It strikes HYATT™ that Harris has made plenty in NJ already and would prefer sticking around for a few more years over all of that $7.5M - which is rather high for what he does.
Does a $2.5M reduction in 2016, for an extra year with reasonable guaranteed money next year, seem like a stretch?
HYATT™ doesn't think so & the market for 32 year old ILBs who can't play coverage on passing downs (Maualuga, Hawk, Posluszny, Dansby, Jackson, Laurinitus, Lofton), would bear that out.
Cap room = +$2.5M
Running total = +$57M

See where this is going?
HYATT™ "MADDEN" cut a dozen players, re-did another half-dozen contracts, and ended up with $57M available. (Of course this is all hypothetical - DUH !!!)
That doesn't even account for another dozen faces that won't be around in 2016 because they are either futures contract players or 3rd/4th string ($600k) benchers already in the total $139.5M for 2016's cap commitment.
Cap room = +$6M
Running total = +$63M

NOW HYATT™ can start thinking about re-signing both Snacks & Mo to contracts that will have a lower 2016 base salary + hefty chunk of signing bonus pro-rated over 5 years.
$13M is one hella start on THAT business before even touching the projected $50M HYATT™ "seat-of-the-pants" available cap room.

The sad part here?
It took HYATT™ less than 5 minutes of reading the spotrac page for the Jets cap to figure out they'd have $50M to play with after doing something about Mo & Snacks - in his HEAD.
It took over 90 minutes to round up the details & put it in writing - and HYATT™ types reasonably well.
THAT is the biggest reason HYATT™ asks people to trust his posts.
Spelling it out for those not as blessed with the math thingy, eats a LOT of HYATT™'s time and effort - and still ends up being the same opinion/facts.
If anything, HYATT™ purposely erred on the conservative side.
The actual amount may be even higher.

Hope you caught up now.

Several of your mistakes;

According to Overthecap.com the Jets are at $148mm ($141 for top 51).
Calvin Pace cannot be cut since he's not on contract. No savings there.
Chris Ivory cannot be cut since he's not on contract. No savings there.
Dee Milliner renegotiate? Extension? He couldn't even get on the field for one single play last year except for special teams.
Extending David Harris? Not happening.
Cutting Geno? He hasn't done anything to prove he belongs but replacing him with anyone other than a rookie or Petty (ain't happening) would cost more than the savings.
You're increasing the spend by $6mm by cutting a bunch of guys at the league minimum only to be replaced by other league minimum guys that's not increasing the money to spend. And some of the guys on your list aren't even in the top 51 ($141mm) so there's no savings there at all.

Now I don't mind being proven wrong but there's really not need to act like an ass.

 

[LGM]

Several of your mistakes;

According to Overthecap.com the Jets are at $148mm ($141 for top 51).
Calvin Pace cannot be cut since he's not on contract. No savings there.
Chris Ivory cannot be cut since he's not on contract. No savings there.
Dee Milliner renegotiate? Extension? He couldn't even get on the field for one single play last year except for special teams.
Extending David Harris? Not happening.
Cutting Geno? He hasn't done anything to prove he belongs but replacing him with anyone other than a rookie or Petty (ain't happening) would cost more than the savings.
You're increasing the spend by $6mm by cutting a bunch of guys at the league minimum only to be replaced by other league minimum guys that's not increasing the money to spend. And some of the guys on your list aren't even in the top 51 ($141mm) so there's no savings there at all.

Now I don't mind being proven wrong but there's really not need to act like an ass.

You would think after his voluminous research and multiple 5000 word treatises that hyatt would be able to get more than 4 things out of 22 right.



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[mydogisajetsfan]

By some reports the Jets are now $23mm under the cap (assuming a cap of $155mm) after releasing Cro. So even if you cut D'Brick, Giacommini, Kerley, Cumberland and Folk that will leave them about $37-38mm under. They ain't re-doing Harris or Milliner. Providing a long list of minimum contracts who will only be replaced by other minimum contracts is not freeing up cap space. Even after re-doing Mangold and possibly Marshall, the number won't move very much. And lastly, Calvin Pace and Chris Ivory are NOT under contract. There's nothing to save here!

 

[HYATT™]

Several of your mistakes;

According to Overthecap.com the Jets are at $148mm ($141 for top 51).

Glass Houses Total Cap Number: $138,965,960 (Top 51: $135,815,960) <<< That's $139M in committed money from YOUR source - $500k LESS THAN HYATT™'s Spotrac source.

Calvin Pace cannot be cut since he's not on contract. No savings there.
Chris Ivory cannot be cut since he's not on contract. No savings there.

OMG, got me. $3.5M out of $63M.
S'ok, the Owners just lost a lawsuit for stealing money from the players & the Court ordered the Owners to replace the money and raise the salary cap an additional $2M - to $156M this year.
Oops, that makes for an offset error of -$1.5M out of $63M. (+$61.5M)

Dee Milliner renegotiate? Extension? He couldn't even get on the field for one single play last year except for special teams.
Extending David Harris? Not happening.

So wack another $3.5M off $61.5M.
HYATT™ has room to be generous.
Running total = +$58M

Cutting Geno? He hasn't done anything to prove he belongs but replacing him with anyone other than a rookie or Petty (ain't happening) would cost more than the savings.

There's that glass house thingy again.
Since when does a rookie QB, taken in the late rounds & paid $450,000, cost more than the ($1,597,146 - $507,655 [dead cap] = $1,089,491) saved by cutting GeNOT? (YOUR source numbers again, by the way.)
And people have the presumptuous gall to call HYATT™'s math on the carpet. <smh>

You're increasing the spend by $6mm by cutting a bunch of guys at the league minimum only to be replaced by other league minimum guys that's not increasing the money to spend. And some of the guys on your list aren't even in the top 51 ($141mm) so there's no savings there at all.

You are making a reading comprehension error.
Given the rest of the mistakes in your critique of HYATT™'s numbers, that's not all that surprising.
Originally HYATT™ stated (in post #30) "it's almost inevitable that the Jets WILL have nearly $50M shifting hands this off-season."
That spending would INCLUDE new faces replacing old faces, without any money saved for changing faces.
(Very little anyway, since the rookie minimum of $450k isn't even a mention-worthy reduction on a 2nd or 3rd year salary of $540k or $600k.)
THE point being, the money is going to change directions/hands/bank accounts, and it's a part of the spending in the off-season, and it's going to be a part of the AMOUNT they WILL spend on changing those faces.
HYATT™'s bad for perhaps not spelling it out in 3 letter words originally.
YOUR bad for taking a generalized discussion statement and turning it into a nit-picky squabble over a few million bux.

Now I don't mind being proven wrong but there's really not need to act like an ass.

Who's the a$$ here?
HYATT™ for taking time to break all of this down?
Or the people calling him an a$$ for doing what no other person here will do - spend over 90 minutes digging up and elucidating the details of contracts and shifting of funds that result in how much the Jets will have available?

From the original GUESStimate, done in less than 5 minutes in HYATT™'s head, this has turned into a "gotcha" session because SOMEBODY got a bug up their a$$ over HYATT™'s sarcasm.
Awwwwww, po' boys got butthurt for being PROVEN more wrong than right in THEIR guesstimates?

After all this, AND gifting your missing reading comprehension skills with a win on the additional $6M for UDFA player exchanges, HYATT™'s breakout STILL ends up being $52M.
In THIS universe, that's still MORE THAN HYATT™'s original $50M GUESStimate - derived from the total spending numbers originally because HYATT™ doesn't consider "TOP-51" to be anything but a temporary accounting trick to allow 90 players into camps.
It is not a REAL salary cap number for the 2016 season, which begins in Week 1 & is a HARD date, (September 5th or 6th @ 4 PM ET).

In ALL of this, you missed the one ACTUAL legitimate argument you COULD have made.
HYATT™ included $8M for Cro being cut, but that $8M was ALREADY missing from Spotrac's commitment number of $139.5M.
That brings HYATT™'s KWIKY seat-of-the-pants GUESStimate down to $44M.
OMG !!!
HYATT™ was off by a whopping $6M - AFTER gifting his critics every excuse in their glass houses to prove him NOT 100% correct.
Aren't y'all proud of yerselves?
Great job of giving HYATT™ a reason to not want to bother informing a bunch of ingrates about things they are too lazy to figure out for themselves.
Trophies all around boys !!!

In any event, $44M - give or take a couple million - is STILL a hella lot more than the $23M-$28M HYATT™ saw being bandied about by almost everyone else, is it not?
Forest for the trees, brutha.

 

[LGM]

Unreadable

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[HYATT™]

Unreadable

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Anything to contribute?
Or do you just come here to troll other posters?

Wasn't that the problem at the old scout board too?
<shakes head at what's happening here.>

 

[LGM]

Your Packers SUCK too

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[mydogisajetsfan]

Unreadable

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Completely and utterly unreadable. And judging by his response it looks like I touched a nerve or two.

And notice no response regarding TWO errors about cutting contracts that don't exist (Ivory and Pace). Or is that just another measly $5mm?

The rest of his babble is incomprehensible. Kind of like listening to Professor Irwin Corey describe the infield fly rule in Farsi.

Oh yeah, one more thing, actually his original statement was that Mac would have over $50mm available AFTER (his emphasis) signing Mo and Harrison. Not even close.