I'm with you . WPS on Materiality
OT Belmont Stakes: Triple Crown?
- Thread starter Green Jets & Ham
- Start date
I'm with you . WPS on Materiality
My Trifecta is AP, Frosted and Materiality
Ok, ready for a few more " angles "
American Pharoah has no experience at Belmont Park and would be the first Triple Crown winner in history to win the Belmont Stakes without having at least one race over the track. He will not even have a workout.
Victor Espinoza is 4-for-73 lifetime at Belmont Park, while finishing out of the money in 55 of his 73 starts. None of his four victories have been farther than one mile, and in six of the last eight years he had no mounts at Belmont. In graded stakes at Belmont, he is 2-for-40, finishing out of the money 32 times.
Getting closer
Post Draw tomorrow morn
To me, it seems like it takes an absolutely extraordinary, once-in-a-generation horse to win the Triple Crown now. AP didn't impress me that much during the Derby, but he did at the Preakness. Under the right track conditions, he has an outside chance, but I don't see a once-in-a-generation horse here. There have been better horses over the past 30+ years to make it to the Belmont with a shot, and none of them have won.
It all comes down to the good horses from the Derby who didn't win sandbagging the Preakness. They sit out, rest up while the Derby winner takes the Preakness (usually beating about half as many horses as he did to win the Derby), and because the Triple Crown is still run on the condensed schedule, the rested rides outlast him at the Belmont.
Not much you can really do about it. Either make the Preakness mandatory for running the Belmont, or spread out the TC schedule a bit more, add two weeks between each race, so the Belmont is in late June or early July.
It all comes down to the good horses from the Derby who didn't win sandbagging the Preakness. They sit out, rest up while the Derby winner takes the Preakness (usually beating about half as many horses as he did to win the Derby), and because the Triple Crown is still run on the condensed schedule, the rested rides outlast him at the Belmont.
Not much you can really do about it. Either make the Preakness mandatory for running the Belmont, or spread out the TC schedule a bit more, add two weeks between each race, so the Belmont is in late June or early July.
Totally agree and for all the reasons you sighted, its essentially rigged to conspire against any horse that wins the first two legs and comes to Belmont with a chance to win the Triple Crown, everything is conspiring against him, thats why so many terrific horses have taken the Derby & Preakness only to be felled by the Belmont Stakes, but IMO thats a good thing and I wouldn't change anything, its supposed to be this hard, its supposed to require a SUPER HORSE to pull off this amazing and grueling feat, this way when a horse does do it, there can be NO DOUBT about his status as an ALL-TIME GREAT.
This is where we part company, sack, I've watched all of AP's Stakes Races as a two and three year old and I couldn't be more impressed. He doesn't just win, he wins with authority and his late (closing) speed is breathtaking. IMO this is the best horse to win the first two legs and go for the Triple Crown since Spectacular Bid in 1979, the year after Affirmed won it in 78', and most horse racing people believe THE BID is the best horse to race in the TC series and not win it. That horse was a monster, unfortunately he wasn't fit for the Belmont, somehow a pin got stuck in his hoof and had to be removed on the day of the Belmont, then his rider (Ronnie Franklin) gave perhaps the worst ride in the history of the Belmont Stakes.
Anyway I think AP has real potential to be a TC Winner, so don't miss the race, you might be missing history.
I haven't watched as much of AP in his youth, so I don't have the frame of reference. I do know that the Derby was not the most impressive win I have ever seen, though the Preakness was quite strong. You may be right.
I was too young to remember any TC winner, so it would be great to see. I usually root for it.
I was too young to remember any TC winner, so it would be great to see. I usually root for it.
Secretariat win was something special to see.
S
sg3
Guest
Back in the olden days, there used to be a fourth stakes race for three year old horses during the span of the current triple crown time period. It may have been the Jamaica at the old Jamaica Race Track. A number of the triple crown winners also ran in and won that race. The 1970s were not all that long ago. I think the current drought of TC winners has more to do with coincidence and a little bit to do with over medicating race horses by trainers eager to see their smiling faces and handsomely coiffed hairdos on national TV.
It seems almost like horse racing is a lot like starting pitching. Back in the 60s and 70s, horses ran more often, and were fine for it, just like teams had four-man pitching rotations and starters frequently pitched complete games and went into extras. But now that we've moved away from it, we presume it can't be done.
Actually there was a long gap between Citation in 48 and Secretariat in 73, and I vividly recall a lot of the same things we are saying today being said just prior to Secretariat. At that point quite a few terrific horses took the first two legs and lost the Belmont. After 25 years without a TC Winner a lot of people concluded there will never be another TC Winner, its just too tough, then Secretariat broke the drought followed by Seattle Slew in 77 and Affirmed in 78, and suddenly it started to look easy, everyone expected Spectacular Bid to make it three years in a row in 79 and four TC Winners in the decade.
Nobody realized that when THE BID came up short in the Belmont, we wouldn't see another TC Winner again for 37 Years.
So, then, are we due for a run?
Doubtful we will ever see another run like we had in the 70's because a lot of what you said is true, horses are no longer bred for this kind of grueling pace, the pitchers analogy you used is a good one. So I think a SUPER HORSE will eventually break through, perhaps American Pharoah, but I don't think we'll ever see another run of Triple Crown Winners like we had in the 30's (3), 40's (4) and again in the 1970's (3).
Yes I was there. Even as a young child I knew his race was super special. Back then I could not understand the fuss over the TC it seemed like it was won every year. I did win my "bet" on Secretariat.
Post Position draw was held today and AP drew the 5
Baffert said he was happy with the draw, no particular reason, he's just had success with the 5
Post Postions and Opening Odds:
Baffert said he was happy with the draw, no particular reason, he's just had success with the 5
Post Postions and Opening Odds:
- Mubtaahij (10-1)
- Tale of Verve (15-1)
- Madefromlucky (12-1)
- Frammento (30-1)
- American Pharoah (3-5)
- Frosted (5-1)
- Keen Ice (20-1)
- Materiality (6-1)
S
sg3
Guest
When the yahoo money arrives on Saturday ( including those buying win tickets as a souvenir) the price on.the favorite should drop to 2-5 maybe lower making that arguably the worst bet in TC history and making bets on Frosted and Materiality with all except the Baffart horse the PLAY OF THE DAY
sg3,
Approximately how much do you think the trifecta would pay if its AP first, Frosted and Materiality second and third?
I'm thinking about doing a $40 trifecta box (20 and 20), where I put AP on top then box Frosted & Materiality for 2 & 3
Approximately how much do you think the trifecta would pay if its AP first, Frosted and Materiality second and third?
I'm thinking about doing a $40 trifecta box (20 and 20), where I put AP on top then box Frosted & Materiality for 2 & 3
Really tough to figure or even guess at the tri payout
These 3 horses will be the heaviest bet in the pool,driving the price down, especially with AP on top
The bigger payout ofcourse will come with AP running 3rd so you should consider tri box unless your really sold on AP winning.
I'm still on Materiality to win
Exacta box with Frosted
Throwing AP out or in a tri box not to sure about that
Another " angle "
In the past 17 years ONLY 2 post time favorites have been able to win the Belmont Stakes.
Good luck all
Materiality as a babe
Materiality now. Beautiful
These 3 horses will be the heaviest bet in the pool,driving the price down, especially with AP on top
The bigger payout ofcourse will come with AP running 3rd so you should consider tri box unless your really sold on AP winning.
I'm still on Materiality to win
Exacta box with Frosted
Throwing AP out or in a tri box not to sure about that
Another " angle "
In the past 17 years ONLY 2 post time favorites have been able to win the Belmont Stakes.
Good luck all
Materiality as a babe
Materiality now. Beautiful
S
sg3
Guest
If AP wins, all payouts will be compromised and M and F are the next two lowest odds in the field.
If you think AP will win, I'd recommend a small wager to win and any other bets you make.
I think your trifecta bet is a risky play with a reasonable chance of one other other 5 spoiling your triple and probably a low reward one because of the prices if it does come in