I know this sounds crazy coming off a 4-12 disaster, but this team was not bereft of talent in the first place, only in certain areas while other areas were strong, and we've really gotten a lot stronger in those areas that needed to be strengthened, to the point where what were weaknesses a year ago can now be classified as strengths, and we still have the #6 and #37 Picks to add an impact player and a significant contributor, and later some more quality depth.
For example, last year were were terrific against the run. Our problem was that we had no pass defense. Now our secondary, at least on paper, looks every bit as good as our front seven, and the front seven might get a whole lot better too if we were to snag an elite edge rusher with that 6th overall pick. We also have a HC who is noted for his exotic blitz packages, schemes and coverages, who might be even more aggressive and creative than Rex Ryan who was also noted for his creativity and aggression. So we could (should) be looking at a defense that challenges for the #1 ranking.
Offensively we added a legit BIG #1 WR, which allows Decker to operate as a #2 , a roll he really excelled at in Denver. Make no mistake about it, while Decker was miscast as a #1 , he's about as good a #2 as you can hope for now that we have an authentic #1 . That alone takes the skill positions to a whole nother level. Add in Amaro coming into his second year, so hopefully his game takes a big step forward, and maybe we add another RB in the draft, and the offense should be a lot better provided the QB doesn't blow it.
And then there is the most important factor of them all, a schedule so soft (on paper) that its hard to find more than six losses even if you're a pessimist. I mean look at this thing, I know the game is not played on paper, but right now thats all we have, and you'll have a much harder time finding seven losses from this schedule, taking our improvements into account, than you will finding ten wins.
For arguments sake lets say we split with the division home and away, that makes us 3-3 in the division which is not at all unrealistic or even overly optimistic.
That leaves 10 Games, five home and five away, from which we need to win at least seven to give ourselves a really good chance at making the playoffs.
That said, I think we'll be favored in every one of these home games, so its fair to say they are games we're supposed to win. I understand how the NFL works, ANY GIVEN SUNDAY, there's no William & Mary's to beat up on in this league, but they are five home games we should win. Losing any one of these games at home would be pathetic in my view. We are significantly better than all five of these teams and we're home in all five of these games, so I have us running the table.
HOME
Jaguars
Titans
Browns
Eagles
Redskins
That takes us to 8-3 with five road games to play, and all we need is two wins out of these five to give ourselves a real good chance at securing a wild card. More than two and we are making a run at the division title, but more than likely all we need is two to make the playoffs.
AWAY
Texans
Colts
Raiders
Cowboys
Giants
There's no reason why we shouldn't dismantle Oakland, so thats one.
That leaves the Texans, Colts, Cowboys and Giants.
Of those four, only the Colts and Cowboys were playoff teams last year, and IMO both are flawed teams we can beat. We're probably underdogs in both games, but I view both as winnable games if we play up to our talent level, and again, if the QB doesn't stink. So in fairness I think you can figure a split in those two games, and that takes us to ten.
Now we're looking at the Giants and Texans, two teams who are not as good as Dallas and Indy, but good enough where they will probably be slight favorites at home, about a FG favorite just for the HF advantage. I think its fair to predict a split in these two games as well, and that would take us to 11 Wins, which is a lock to make the playoffs and a possible run at the division title if the Pats come back to the pack due to their significant losses in free agency.
Lastly, even if you want to project us slipping up in one of those five home games we should win, as the Jets inevitably do in at least one home game they should win in their sleep, this still gives us a one game margin for error with that home loss taking us back to 10, which again should be enough to make the playoffs.
Now if you accuse me of being too optimistic, thats fine, I ask only that you explain how, exactly where and how am I being overly optimistic here? Which analysis or prognostication would you call outlandish in the homeristic sense?
For example, last year were were terrific against the run. Our problem was that we had no pass defense. Now our secondary, at least on paper, looks every bit as good as our front seven, and the front seven might get a whole lot better too if we were to snag an elite edge rusher with that 6th overall pick. We also have a HC who is noted for his exotic blitz packages, schemes and coverages, who might be even more aggressive and creative than Rex Ryan who was also noted for his creativity and aggression. So we could (should) be looking at a defense that challenges for the #1 ranking.
Offensively we added a legit BIG #1 WR, which allows Decker to operate as a #2 , a roll he really excelled at in Denver. Make no mistake about it, while Decker was miscast as a #1 , he's about as good a #2 as you can hope for now that we have an authentic #1 . That alone takes the skill positions to a whole nother level. Add in Amaro coming into his second year, so hopefully his game takes a big step forward, and maybe we add another RB in the draft, and the offense should be a lot better provided the QB doesn't blow it.
And then there is the most important factor of them all, a schedule so soft (on paper) that its hard to find more than six losses even if you're a pessimist. I mean look at this thing, I know the game is not played on paper, but right now thats all we have, and you'll have a much harder time finding seven losses from this schedule, taking our improvements into account, than you will finding ten wins.
For arguments sake lets say we split with the division home and away, that makes us 3-3 in the division which is not at all unrealistic or even overly optimistic.
That leaves 10 Games, five home and five away, from which we need to win at least seven to give ourselves a really good chance at making the playoffs.
That said, I think we'll be favored in every one of these home games, so its fair to say they are games we're supposed to win. I understand how the NFL works, ANY GIVEN SUNDAY, there's no William & Mary's to beat up on in this league, but they are five home games we should win. Losing any one of these games at home would be pathetic in my view. We are significantly better than all five of these teams and we're home in all five of these games, so I have us running the table.
HOME
Jaguars
Titans
Browns
Eagles
Redskins
That takes us to 8-3 with five road games to play, and all we need is two wins out of these five to give ourselves a real good chance at securing a wild card. More than two and we are making a run at the division title, but more than likely all we need is two to make the playoffs.
AWAY
Texans
Colts
Raiders
Cowboys
Giants
There's no reason why we shouldn't dismantle Oakland, so thats one.
That leaves the Texans, Colts, Cowboys and Giants.
Of those four, only the Colts and Cowboys were playoff teams last year, and IMO both are flawed teams we can beat. We're probably underdogs in both games, but I view both as winnable games if we play up to our talent level, and again, if the QB doesn't stink. So in fairness I think you can figure a split in those two games, and that takes us to ten.
Now we're looking at the Giants and Texans, two teams who are not as good as Dallas and Indy, but good enough where they will probably be slight favorites at home, about a FG favorite just for the HF advantage. I think its fair to predict a split in these two games as well, and that would take us to 11 Wins, which is a lock to make the playoffs and a possible run at the division title if the Pats come back to the pack due to their significant losses in free agency.
Lastly, even if you want to project us slipping up in one of those five home games we should win, as the Jets inevitably do in at least one home game they should win in their sleep, this still gives us a one game margin for error with that home loss taking us back to 10, which again should be enough to make the playoffs.
Now if you accuse me of being too optimistic, thats fine, I ask only that you explain how, exactly where and how am I being overly optimistic here? Which analysis or prognostication would you call outlandish in the homeristic sense?
