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Superman55

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Jet Fanatics
This is a good move in my opinion. He played well in Jacksonville at times when he was the only option. As a number 3, I think he can be successful.

We are developing quite the offense. It's crazy how in one offseason two of our weaknesses is turning into a strength (WR and CB).

I wonder if Mac isn't a huge Kerley fan from what they saw on film. Short doesn't play special teams, so he isn't coming to be a #4
 

BlindsideD'Brick

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics

Green Jets & Ham

King Of All Draftniks
Jet Fanatics
Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and Jeremy Kerley. (And Amaro at TE)

Why would we take a WR at #6?
Three reasons, blind:

1. Kerley is okay, but IMO he's a better #4 and second slot WR than #3 and first slot WR.

2. Sticking to your value board and taking Cooper or White if they are the Best Available Players (BPA) on your board.

3. SUPER UNIT, the least understood draft philosophy of drafting to your strength and creating a Super Unit.
 

Green Jets & Ham

King Of All Draftniks
Jet Fanatics
Here is a link that explains the different draft philosophies, a good read for the draftnik:

http://gbnreport.com/features/draft-day-theories/

Draft Day Theories

The following are several drafting theories, some actually subscribed to by teams, others sometimes in name only:

Draft the best athlete: The most tried and true draft theory, though, it drives a lot of fans, particularly those who are more likely to be looking for a quick fix to distraction. It is also something of a misnomer; best athlete implies you are primarily taking a guy for his athletic ability – speed, vertical leap, weight-room strength etc. – when done correctly it really should read “best player available” (BPA).

Drafting the best player is also based on the notion that drafts are not primarily about fixing a weakness on the team for next year, but rather are part of a longer term building process. Here’s how BPA works, at least in theory:

First, we give each veteran on a particular team a numerical grade which we will call their hypothetical player value (HPV) on a scale of ten. Then a team with a WR with a HPV of 8 and an OG with a HPV of 6 arrives at the draft and has a choice of two players: a WR with an HPV of 9 and an OG with an HPV of 8.

Obviously by taking the OG the team would increase its value at that position by 2 points whereas by taking the WR their total HPV would rise only 1 point. In the short term the team would increase its total HPV by taking the OG.

However, if a team did the same thing over a period of years, that is, took the player with a HPV of 8 at a position of need, but passed on a 9 at another position, at the end of a 5-year period, for example, that team would have a total HPV of 40 from the 5 picks, whereas the higher graded players would have added a total of 45, and everything else being equal a much better team.

Given the incredible vagaries of pro football careers – injuries, FA defections, and the fact that all players develop differently and at different paces – this year’s crisis at OG, for example, may have been solved by an undrafted FA no one counted on, while one at another position suffers a career ending knee injury – drafting the best player available simply maximizes your odds of having the best possible team over the long haul.

Of course, when a team makes its pick there is often not such a clear difference between players; in fact there may be several players with a similar ranking and that’s when that team can focus on which of those players/positions will help that particular team the most.

The problem with BPA, however, is that, almost by definition, it does not do a good job of addressing problem areas. This can be be a major concern, particularly at positions like QB, left offensive tackle, RDE and CB where it is critical that a team have at least a competent player if they hope to be a serious contender. This is where free agency can, and should, come into play.

Shopping lists versus a truly positional draft: Most teams when drafting appear to take a kind of shopping list approach: a WR in the first round, LB in the second, OG in the third, DT in the fourth and so on. I am not sure, however, that this is necessarily very effective when a team is trying to upgrade a really weak position. In fact there is nothing that annoys me more on draft day than when an announcer starts rambling on that “the Catfish have really upgraded their receiver core by taking WR Billy Bob Bumpkin from State U”.

The problem with just taking one player is that it is still all about probabilities, and the probabilities far lower than we all realize. If that one player doesn’t work out for whatever reason that team is ultimately no farther ahead. We believe that if a team really wants to upgrade on a position they actually should consider using a good part of a draft to do it, again because of the generally low probabilities involved.

Team building rather than team fixing: Again, most fans when they look ahead to a draft, start with an assessment of the team’s weaknesses and go from there. As such, they then tend to identify a top player at the weakest position as the ‘player they would pick.’ Most NFL coaches/management, particularly the good ones, however, often look more to proactively build something or a system rather than just look to fill shorter term holes.

It may be to install a more diversified offense or develop an aggressive, attack oriented-defense or simply to get faster across the board; in order to do that, though, they often end up drafting players at positions which seem to be solid. And this phenomenon may be the biggest reason why predicting any draft is so difficult, because if often means having to get ‘inside the head’ of the respective coaches and GMs around the league.

Building from strength: We almost always talk about using the draft to fix weaknesses; this may not always be necessarily the most efficient way to build a team however. In a nutshell, the problem with this approach is that if a team brings a strong player into a weak unit, opponents can quickly neutralize the impact of that player by double-teaming or playing away from them. If on the other hand a team drafts to its strength, it is possible to create a super unit that make all other units on the team better simply because opponents have to invest so much in stopping the good unit that the weaker ones are allowed considerable liberties.
 

Superman55

Franchise Tagged
Jet Fanatics
I saw Phins would rather steal Cameron than resign Clay...but Cameron has had 3 concussions in the last 2 seasons...works for me. :)
 
U

ucrenegade

Guest
Three reasons, blind:

1. Kerley is okay, but IMO he's a better #4 and second slot WR than #3 and first slot WR.

2. Sticking to your value board and taking Cooper or White if they are the Best Available Players (BPA) on your board.

3. SUPER UNIT, the least understood draft philosophy of drafting to your strength and creating a Super Unit.


giants did that with all those dlinemen studs that beat the pats in the sb
 

Green Jets & Ham

King Of All Draftniks
Jet Fanatics
giants did that with all those dlinemen studs that beat the pats in the sb
Excellent observation, uc, and exactly right. At some point drafting DL's high seemed like overkill, but they were drafting to their strength and in the process they created a super unit.

They did the same thing in the 80's when they were one of the worst teams in football. The only unit on the entire team that was any good was their linebackers. They had a terrific linebacker core, but the rest of the team pretty much reeked.

So what did they draft at I believe #2 overall? Yep, a linebacker, someone by the name of Lawrence Taylor, and the result was a super unit that served as the catalyst for two SB rings.

Incidentally the Jets had the #3 Pick that year and took Freeman McNeil, but if the Giants had said linebacker is our strongest unit, we have so many more glaring needs, we can't take another linebacker here, LT slides to the Jets and we have a chance to add him to the Sack Exchange. Imagine how insane our defense would have been then?
 

Elias

The Invisible Man
Big Fish
Jet Fanatics
Jets Global
Jordan Cameron signed with the Dolphins. He's tough. I think Clay will in turn sign with Buffalo.
 

Elias

The Invisible Man
Big Fish
Jet Fanatics
Jets Global
Dwayne Bowe was released by KC not sure if that was mentioned by anyone in this thread. Thought he was a good player but his career was ruined by the crappy QB play in KC.
 
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