Making the case in favor of the Pats

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
There is a lot of vitriol among Jets' fans, and probably lots of other teams' fans, based on the deflate-gate results. And I'll admit I also think there is a very good chance the Pats cheated. Unfortunately, I am afraid it is also possible to make a case in their favor, which explains most of the evidence.

First, we all know that 11 of the Pats' 12 balls tested 2 psi under-inflated at the half of the AFC champ game. A Boston-based physics professor came out saying much of the deflation could be attributed to the drop in temperature between where the pressure was tested and the temperature outside. Well, I ran the calculation myself, and I found that a ball inflated to 12.5 psi at 70 degrees will drop to 11.5 psi when measured at 50 degrees assuming constant ball volume. So that would account for half of the measured deflation in 11 of the 12 balls.

Now what about the other half? Well, Bellichik said in today's news conference that the preparation they do to the balls raises the pressure by 1 psi. Taking him at his word for the sake of argument, I am guessing that mostly comes from the body temperature of the hands that are rubbing up the balls, and partly from the friction of rubbing. So that may be where there other half of the deflation comes from. That physics prof also said if the balls started at 80 degrees and fell to 50 degrees the deflation would be 2 psi. Perhaps the preparation does raise the balls to 80 degrees. That is just speculation of course, but I am just pointing out how a case can possibly be made in favor of the Pats.

What about the 12th ball not being under inflated? That one is a bit thorny, and may actually be the Pats' biggest problem. Perhaps it comes from the pressure gauge used to test that one ball being improperly calibrated, assuming the same gauge wasn't used on all the balls. But I'll admit, that 12th ball is still something that needs explanation.

As for the Colts' balls, that gets us back to whether the officials may have honored a request from the Colts to inflate their balls to 13.5 psi. And then there is uncertainty about how the Colts prep their balls. It is possible the Colts' balls started at 13.5 psi and dropped to 12.5 psi, still within the rules.

The last point is why did the Pats' balls hold pressure in the second half. It could be the balls had already dropped in temperature in the first half, were only brought in at halftime for only a short time for testing and re-inflating. So the balls may already have been close to the outside air temperature at the start of the second half.

OK. I want the Pats to be guilty of cheating as much as anyone. So I did this write-up as something of a straw man argument. But still, is it really overwhelmingly obvious that the only explanation could be that someone manually deflated the balls after the officials finished with them?
 
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sg3

Guest
At halftime, the officials took all the filthy cheater''s altered illegal balls out of the game and replaced them with the 12 alternate balls which were guarded during the first half near the replay booth. Those 12 balls apparently did not contact all those atmospheric and equilibrium conditions Sir Isaac Newtonchick described at today's "I'm not a scientist, I'm not a CROOK" press conference.

It appears that the Sheldon Silver of coaching convinced no one today (other than the grammar school chowderhead dropouts at patsfan.com) and he has zero chance of this going away next week when he and Team Cheat arrive in Arizona
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
At halftime, the officials took all the filthy cheater''s altered illegal balls out of the game and replaced them with the 12 alternate balls which were guarded during the first half near the replay booth. Those 12 balls apparently did not contact all those atmospheric and equilibrium conditions Sir Isaac Newtonchick described at today's "I'm not a scientist, I'm not a CROOK" press conference.

It appears that the Sheldon Silver of coaching convinced no one today (other than the grammar school chowderhead dropouts at patsfan.com) and he has zero chance of this going away next week when he and Team Cheat arrive in Arizona

I have read conflicting reports on that. Some say the balls were replaced, other reports say the original balls were re-inflated. Either way wouldn't make much difference. The new balls are kept outside during the first half. Of course, this assumes the new balls were checked for proper inflation before being used in the second half. If they weren't but still tested good after the game, that would be good evidence that the original balls had been manually deflated.
 
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Deleted member 39

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There's an internet story saying that the 12th ball was also deflated below the proper level. It just wasn't deflated as much as the others.

But what really persuades me is the Patriots incredibly low fumble rates. Not only are they unbelievably low, but the same players who had low fumble rates with the Pats had higher rates after they played for the Patriots. Of course Bill Belichick mentioned his training methods today. But many coaches have moved on from the Pats, and I don't see them adopting Bill's methods. (With the exception maybe of Mangini).

What would the Patriots' wining percentage be if they had a normal fumble percentage?
 

Green Jets & Ham

King Of All Draftniks
Jet Fanatics
I think I'll go rob a bank tonight, then when the police show up at my door I'll just tell them I conducted my own internal investigation and it definitely, 100%, wasn't me.

Do you think it will work?
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
There's an internet story saying that the 12th ball was also deflated below the proper level. It just wasn't deflated as much as the others.

But what really persuades me is the Patriots incredibly low fumble rates. Not only are they unbelievably low, but the same players who had low fumble rates with the Pats had higher rates after they played for the Patriots. Of course Bill Belichick mentioned his training methods today. But many coaches have moved on from the Pats, and I don't see them adopting Bill's methods. (With the exception maybe of Mangini).

What would the Patriots' wining percentage be if they had a normal fumble percentage?

Right. I posted a link in another thread on this site to the article where the facts and figures are discussed. I was surprised there wasn't more reaction here to that link. Perhaps there's too much mathiness in it for some, and perhaps others just don't like clicking on links. I am hopeful that Elias will find a way to let us upload files into posts. If he does, I'll post the PDF file of that article that I downloaded,
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
I think I'll go rob a bank tonight, then when the police show up at my door I'll just tell them I conducted my own internal investigation and it definitely, 100%, wasn't me.

Do you think it will work?

Of course not. But then again I did not use the results of the Pats' self-investigation much in my analysis. It's just that if the Pats' ball-prep procedure does indeed raise the pressure by 1 psi as stated by Bellichik, that fact coupled with the 1 psi drop due to the temperature difference between inside and outside would explain the 2 psi in question. Fortunately, there's no need to take Bellichik's word for it. Others can repeat the Pats' tests and see if they get a 1 psi increase from rubbing up the ball.
 
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Deleted member 39

Guest
Right. I posted a link in another thread on this site to the article where the facts and figures are discussed. I was surprised there wasn't more reaction here to that link. Perhaps there's too much mathiness in it for some, and perhaps others just don't like clicking on links. I am hopeful that Elias will find a way to let us upload files into posts. If he does, I'll post the PDF file of that article that I downloaded,

Yes, I saw your numbers on the fumble rates. I think there's also something on Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Statistics. I'm so angry I simply can barely get through the numbers. I partly think we've been duped as fans. But for years I was wondering how Belichick was winning with so many different players and injuries. I'm guessing this explains a big part of it.

Remember how Madoff claimed returns on investment of 12%? It didn't matter what the market did. Bill Belichick wins 12 games every year. Doesn't matter if he loses pro bowl players to injury. Heck, he'll even trade them away.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
Yes, I saw your numbers on the fumble rates. I think there's also something on Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Statistics. I'm so angry I simply can barely get through the numbers. I partly think we've been duped as fans. But for years I was wondering how Belichick was winning with so many different players and injuries. I'm guessing this explains a big part of it.

Remember how Madoff claimed returns on investment of 12%? It didn't matter what the market did. Bill Belichick wins 12 games every year. Doesn't matter if he loses pro bowl players to injury. Heck, he'll even trade them away.

I agree. Unfortunately, I don't see any way the fumble rate stats become part of the deflate-gate investigation. And I think my analysis shows it is possible to have reasonable doubt about that. I sure hope this doesn't all add up to them getting away with it.

But hey, I'll bet the NFL has a league man watch the balls from this point on. It will be interesting to see what happens to the Pats' fumble rates starting next year. Or even in the SB.
 
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sg3

Guest
Yes, I saw your numbers on the fumble rates. I think there's also something on Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Statistics. I'm so angry I simply can barely get through the numbers. I partly think we've been duped as fans. But for years I was wondering how Belichick was winning with so many different players and injuries. I'm guessing this explains a big part of it.

Remember how Madoff claimed returns on investment of 12%? It didn't matter what the market did. Bill Belichick wins 12 games every year. Doesn't matter if he loses pro bowl players to injury. Heck, he'll even trade them away.
Great comparison LJF

From now on his name is Bill Madoffchick
 

Johnny Unite Us

Pro Bowl Alternate
Jet Fanatics
Making the case in favor of the Pats

So, then the Colts foot balls must have originally been inflated to 14.5 psi, since they would undergo the same deflation due to atmospheric and temperature changes. Unless you are going to tell me that the Colts inflated their footballs outside at the exact same temperature and barometric pressure that the game was played at.

Or, maybe the Colts use magical footballs. Maybe they got their footballs from the same guy who sold Jack his magical beans.

And, I'm sure the same drop in temperature and change in atmospheric conditions occurred during the Ravens game the week before, but once again only affected the balls supplied by the Patriots, not those supplied by the Ravens.

Maybe the laws of physics don't apply to the visiting teams footballs, only to the Patriots footballs.
 

Johnny Unite Us

Pro Bowl Alternate
Jet Fanatics
Of course not. But then again I did not use the results of the Pats' self-investigation much in my analysis. It's just that if the Pats' ball-prep procedure does indeed raise the pressure by 1 psi as stated by Bellichik, that fact coupled with the 1 psi drop due to the temperature difference between inside and outside would explain the 2 psi in question. Fortunately, there's no need to take Bellichik's word for it. Others can repeat the Pats' tests and see if they get a 1 psi increase from rubbing up the ball.

How much would you have to increase the temperature of the air inside the ball to cause a 1 lb. psi increase? I'm assuming it would be around 20 degrees, since you stated earlier that a 20 degree drop from 70 to 50 would cause a 1 psi drop. What is the rate of heat transference through a leather skin and a rubber bladder of a football?

A football would have to be almost a perfect conductor of heat for a pair of human hands at 98.6 degrees to raise the air temperature inside the ball to close to 90 degrees, regardless of the amount of friction. Which if the Patriots are to be believed would have to be the temperature at which the balls were officially tested before the game. Someone would have to rub the balls really really hard for a real long time to generate hat kind of heat. Not to mention that they'd have warm up all 11 balls simultaneously. If they did them one at a time, then the air pressure of the first ball prepped would be lower than the pressure of the 11th ball prepped, since it would have cooled slightly while the other balls were vigorously rubbed.

Or, maybe the Pats have 11 different guys all prepping footballs with the exact same amount of body heat and friction. A Congo line of ball rubbers, if you will. That's unlikely.

So, even if their story is to be believed, they would have had to have used some sort of artificial means to increase the temperature of the air inside the ball by approximately 20 degrees. That alone shows that there was intent to increase the temperature of the ball to fool the officials testing the air pressure.

Did they boil them? Put them in a hot tub or sauna? Microwave them? Wrap them in hot towels?

They did something. I find it hard to believe that they increased the temperature of 11 footballs simultaneously by 20 degrees without realizing it.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
How much would you have to increase the temperature of the air inside the ball to cause a 1 lb. psi increase? I'm assuming it would be around 20 degrees, since you stated earlier that a 20 degree drop from 70 to 50 would cause a 1 psi drop. What is the rate of heat transference through a leather skin and a rubber bladder of a football?

A football would have to be almost a perfect conductor of heat for a pair of human hands at 98.6 degrees to raise the air temperature inside the ball to close to 90 degrees, regardless of the amount of friction. Which if the Patriots are to be believed would have to be the temperature at which the balls were officially tested before the game. Someone would have to rub the balls really really hard for a real long time to generate hat kind of heat. Not to mention that they'd have warm up all 11 balls simultaneously. If they did them one at a time, then the air pressure of the first ball prepped would be lower than the pressure of the 11th ball prepped, since it would have cooled slightly while the other balls were vigorously rubbed.

Or, maybe the Pats have 11 different guys all prepping footballs with the exact same amount of body heat and friction. A Congo line of ball rubbers, if you will. That's unlikely.

So, even if their story is to be believed, they would have had to have used some sort of artificial means to increase the temperature of the air inside the ball by approximately 20 degrees. That alone shows that there was intent to increase the temperature of the ball to fool the officials testing the air pressure.

Did they boil them? Put them in a hot tub or sauna? Microwave them? Wrap them in hot towels?

They did something. I find it hard to believe that they increased the temperature of 11 footballs simultaneously by 20 degrees without realizing it.

Based on the physics prof's statement, the answer is 10 degrees. I did not run the calculation myself, but the prof said starting from 80 degrees, a 2 psi drop in pressure would occur in the temperature dropping to 50 degrees. That seemed not very inconsistent with a 1 psi drop from 70 degrees to 50 degrees, so I did not check it. We can only hope that the guys doing the investigation bring a set of fresh balls to the Pats, inflate them to 12.5 psi, then ask them to do their ball prep thing. If they then find a 1 psi increase as Bellichik claimed, I think that makes a reasonable case for a 2 psi drop from the refs' locker room to halftime. If they don't do a test like that, the guys doing the investigation are worthless.
 
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flgreen

Guest
Based on the physics prof's statement, the answer is 10 degrees. I did not run the calculation myself, but the prof said starting from 80 degrees, a 2 psi drop in pressure would occur in the temperature dropping to 50 degrees. That seemed not very inconsistent with a 1 psi drop from 70 degrees to 50 degrees, so I did not check it. We can only hope that the guys doing the investigation bring a set of fresh balls to the Pats, inflate them to 12.5 psi, then ask them to do their ball prep thing. If they then find a 1 psi increase as Bellichik claimed, I think that makes a reasonable case for a 2 psi drop from the refs' locker room to halftime. If they don't do a test like that, the guys doing the investigation are worthless.

Ask your physics professor, what the odds are that the exact same balls, under the exact same circumstances, that were 160' away, had no reaction , (and measured in the exact some environment) to the atmospheric conditions, and were exactly as they were 1.5 hours ago?

Also ask him what the odds are (you'll probably need a math professor also for this, because the odds are going to be very high) that these exact same circumstances weren't an abnormality, they happened 2 weeks in a row.

A miracle I tell ya.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
BTW, one more thing to add here. I saw a post on JN where someone who is from the world of car racing said he now knows what the Pats are doing. The racing guys know how much pressure increase occurs in tires during a race. So they under-inflate the tires on purpose, so once the race starts the tire pressure increase to the ideal desired level. He said Bellichik is doing the same thing with footballs, getting them to the desired pressure based on how they prep the balls. The amazing thing to me is that they can do it over the duration of a season with all the varying outside temperatures. It's almost as if they would need an oven and a refrigerator to start the balls at just the right temperature every time. Let's hope they fail a ball rub-up test conducted by the investigators.
 

Johnny Unite Us

Pro Bowl Alternate
Jet Fanatics
Based on the physics prof's statement, the answer is 10 degrees. I did not run the calculation myself, but the prof said starting from 80 degrees, a 2 psi drop in pressure would occur in the temperature dropping to 50 degrees. That seemed not very inconsistent with a 1 psi drop from 70 degrees to 50 degrees, so I did not check it. We can only hope that the guys doing the investigation bring a set of fresh balls to the Pats, inflate them to 12.5 psi, then ask them to do their ball prep thing. If they then find a 1 psi increase as Bellichik claimed, I think that makes a reasonable case for a 2 psi drop from the refs' locker room to halftime. If they don't do a test like that, the guys doing the investigation are worthless.

Actually, they'd have to inflate them to only 11.5 psi, then have the Patriots do their normal ball prep routine, then check the pressure. At that point the pressure should be 12.5 psi, which is what the refs say the pressure was pre game.

So, even if that works, it shows that the Patriots only inflated the balls to 11.5 psi THEN did their ball preparation.

Again, that show intent to manipulate the ball pressure.

For the Patriots story to make sense, they would have had to inflate the balls to the league minimum 12.5 psi, done their prep bringing the pressure to 13.5 psi, had the balls tested, then as a result of the temperature drop the balls would lose 2 psi, resulting in a halftime measurement of 11.5 psi.

But, the halftime measurement was 10.5 psi. So, the balls were under inflated by 1 psi to begin with.

More likely, they just took some air out after the refs checked the balls.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
Ask your physics professor, what the odds are that the exact same balls, under the exact same circumstances, that were 160' away, had no reaction , (and measured in the exact some environment) to the atmospheric conditions, and were exactly as they were 1.5 hours ago?

Also ask him what the odds are (you'll probably need a math professor also for this, because the odds are going to be very high) that these exact same circumstances weren't an abnormality, they happened 2 weeks in a row.

A miracle I tell ya.

Ah, but that's the thing. We still don't know if teams are allowed to request any level of inflation between 12.5 and 13.5 psi. and whether the officials honored the requests. If so, the starting circumstances for the two sets of balls may have been different. And also, the Colts' ball prep procedure may differ enough from the Pats' to cause different results. No miracle needed, really. But some more facts would be nice. Let's hope the investigators dig them up, and present them.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
Actually, they'd have to inflate them to only 11.5 psi, then have the Patriots do their normal ball prep routine, then check the pressure. At that point the pressure should be 12.5 psi, which is what the refs say the pressure was pre game.

So, even if that works, it shows that the Patriots only inflated the balls to 11.5 psi THEN did their ball preparation.

Again, that show intent to manipulate the ball pressure.

For the Patriots story to make sense, they would have had to inflate the balls to the league minimum 12.5 psi, done their prep bringing the pressure to 13.5 psi, had the balls tested, then as a result of the temperature drop the balls would lose 2 psi, resulting in a halftime measurement of 11.5 psi.

But, the halftime measurement was 10.5 psi. So, the balls were under inflated by 1 psi to begin with.

More likely, they just took some air out after the refs checked the balls.

The bolded statement is what I think they may have done. But then the officials let out the 1 psi extra to get the balls down to 12.5 psi. This means the balls were at 12.5 psi and 80 degrees internal temperature. So when put outside the balls dropped 2 psi down to the measured 10.5 psi level.
 
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flgreen

Guest
BTW, one more thing to add here. I saw a post on JN where someone who is from the world of car racing said he now knows what the Pats are doing. The racing guys know how much pressure increase occurs in tires during a race. So they under-inflate the tires on purpose, so once the race starts the tire pressure increase to the ideal desired level. He said Bellichik is doing the same thing with footballs, getting them to the desired pressure based on how they prep the balls. The amazing thing to me is that they can do it over the duration of a season with all the varying outside temperatures. It's almost as if they would need an oven and a refrigerator to start the balls at just the right temperature every time. Let's hope they fail a ball rub-up test conducted by the investigators.

I'll have to defer that question to Renegade, he's our resident piston head. No question NASCAR has all these elements down to a science.

Kind of suspect though from the casual observer, there is a major difference from a 2,500 pound car, doing 200+ MPH, making sharp left turns every 1/4 mile, to a foot ball getting hand jobs from Tom Brady every 1/2 hour.
 

Jet Fan RI

Pro Bowl 1st Team
Jet Fanatics
I'll have to defer that question to Renegade, he's our resident piston head. No question NASCAR has all these elements down to a science.

Kind of suspect though from the casual observer, there is a major difference from a 2,500 pound car, doing 200+ MPH, making sharp left turns every 1/4 mile, to a foot ball getting hand jobs from Tom Brady every 1/2 hour.

Right. But if I remember correctly, the race guy on JN said the pressure change in the tires is 11 psi. Here we're only looking for 1 psi.
 
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