Pick #103 - Bryce Petty - QB - Baylor

[Superman55]

Back to Bryce Petty, I know he passes the eyeball test, but a couple things to consider:

1) he replaced RG3, who was better in the system than he (Petty) was...as a passer and executor of the offense.
2) Petty's back-up, Seth Russell, is going to be awesome this year...he is also a better prospect than Petty and will be closer to RG3 status

What does all that say? Not much, because the spread offense doesn't lead to NFL success; again, 1 success story so far...and that guy is in GB and sat on the bench 3 years before ever playing.

How good is Seth Russell, he stepped in 1 half for Petty last year...he threw 5 TDs and 450 yards in 2 quarters vs Northwestern.

Everyone looks good in that offense, until they get to the pros. Thats the point of the offense, make everything as simple as possible so high school QBs can succeed quickly.

Baylor wont even miss Petty this year (you can't say that about many elite QBs, how has Purdue been since Brees left, va-tech since Vick left, Tennessee since Manning left, Ole Miss since Eli left, Boston College since Matt Ryan left, Auburn since Cam left, etc, etc...the fact Baylor can plug and play any QB and get the same results should be an indicator of system vs talent).

We need to be very patient with Petty with appropriate expectations, IMO.

 

[Elias]

Back to Bryce Petty, I know he passes the eyeball test, but a couple things to consider:

1) he replaced RG3, who was better in the system than he (Petty) was...as a passer and executor of the offense.
2) Petty's back-up, Seth Russell, is going to be awesome this year...he is also a better prospect than Petty and will be closer to RG3 status

What does all that say? Not much, because the spread offense doesn't lead to NFL success; again, 1 success story so far...and that guy is in GB and sat on the bench 3 years before ever playing.

How good is Seth Russell, he stepped in 1 half for Petty last year...he threw 5 TDs and 450 yards in 2 quarters vs Northwestern.

Everyone looks good in that offense, until they get to the pros. Thats the point of the offense, make everything as simple as possible so high school QBs can succeed quickly.

Baylor wont even miss Petty this year (you can't say that about many elite QBs, how has Purdue been since Brees left, va-tech since Vick left, Tennessee since Manning left, Ole Miss since Eli left, Boston College since Matt Ryan left, Auburn since Cam left, etc, etc...the fact Baylor can plug and play any QB and get the same results should be an indicator of system vs talent).

We need to be very patient with Petty with appropriate expectations, IMO.

This is exactly what we are going to be. With the addition of Fitzpatrick, the Jets are going to be patient and have built their entire team to be patient.

None of the young guys are expected to produce right away. Only exception is Williams now that Sheldon is gone for four weeks.

 

[Golden Rott]

Baylor wont even miss Petty this year (you can't say that about many elite QBs, how has Purdue been since Brees left, va-tech since Vick left, Tennessee since Manning left, Ole Miss since Eli left, Boston College since Matt Ryan left, Auburn since Cam left, etc, etc...the fact Baylor can plug and play any QB and get the same results should be an indicator of system vs talent).

We need to be very patient with Petty with appropriate expectations, IMO.

Point taken -- and I think most of us agree that Petty is a long shot to play this season and is best brought along slowly. He may never amount to anything more than an NFL back-up (though I am hoping for more).

But you may be forgetting that Tennessee won a national title with Tee Martin the year after Peyton left and Auburn did play for the National Title with Nick Marshall a couple of years after Cam left.

 

[Mainejet]

If it makes you feel better to call me a 'spin master', apologist or whatever, have at it. I have watched professional football and followed it very closely for almost 50 years, and I have seen plenty of guys as talented as Smith bust and seen plenty who figure it out and are successful. It's because of that, that I'm not ready to pull the plug on this very talented, young yet undeveloped QB. I've said it before and it bears repeating here; my only loyalty is to the Jets and for them to be successful. If that means RF or BP as the QB, great, but if Smith turns the corner it represents the best situation for the Jets. We have a young inexpensive franchise QB, a solid veteran to come in in case of injury and a talented draftee who can sit, watch and develop at the appropriate pace.

Well, I am here to make you and your 50 years of watching football a promise........

Geno Smith is NOT a good QB. Geno Smith is terrible. Geno Smith will inevitably get benched in favor of someone else. He will NEVER improve from his current turnover machine status. It is blatantly obvious that the NYJ real live franchise QB is either Bryce Petty or isn't currently on the roster.

That's guaranteed and you can take to the bank. Geno Smith's days as the starter and as a member of NYJ will end after this season.

 

[Old#15]

Well, I am here to make you and your 50 years of watching football a promise........

Geno Smith is NOT a good QB. Geno Smith is terrible. Geno Smith will inevitably get benched in favor of someone else. He will NEVER improve from his current turnover machine status. It is blatantly obvious that the NYJ real live franchise QB is either Bryce Petty or isn't currently on the roster.

That's guaranteed and you can take to the bank. Geno Smith's days as the starter and as a member of NYJ will end after this season.

Do you have any stock or betting tips that I can take to the bank as well?

 

[Superman55]

Point taken -- and I think most of us agree that Petty is a long shot to play this season and is best brought along slowly. He may never amount to anything more than an NFL back-up (though I am hoping for more).

But you may be forgetting that Tennessee won a national title with Tee Martin the year after Peyton left and Auburn did play for the National Title with Nick Marshall a couple of years after Cam left.

Good catch on Vols and tigers.

 

[Mainejet]

Do you have any stock or betting tips that I can take to the bank as well?

No. I just know a sure thing when I see one. You should also.

 

[Superman55]

Vince Young and RG3 were considered sure things after their rookie years...Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, and Drew Brees were considered busts after their first 2 years...

Not sure anyone knows anything for sure right now...

 

[Green Jets & Ham]

Back to Bryce Petty, I know he passes the eyeball test, but a couple things to consider:

1) He replaced RG3, who was better in the system than he (Petty) was...as a passer and executor of the offense.

True, though I suspect the passing stats are relatively equal (guessing), but RG3 was certainly the more dynamic of the two and the more lethal dual threat, but that doesn't mean he'll be a better pro than Bryce Petty.

The college and pro games are so different and sometimes you can take two QB's with different skill sets, PLAYER A is better than PLAYER B in college, but PLAYER B becomes a better pro because his skill set is more conducive to pro football.

I'm not saying thats going to be the case here, but I can see where Petty's skill set might make him the better pro.

When I was young I was an avoid boxing fan and did a little amateur boxing myself. Nothing serious, but I was really into the sport and my pops won the Golden Gloves when he was younger, his trainer was Cus D'Amato who used to train at Gramercy Gym on the lower east-side before I was born.

Anyway, the 1976 Olympics Boxing Team might have been our best ever. We won an astounding 7 GOLD MEDALS and several future world champion professionals emerged from that team, including Sugar Ray Leonard.

You know who was named the outstanding boxer (an actual award they handed out) in the 76' Olympics?

It wasn't Sugar Ray or any of the future champs, it was a local kid from Long Island named Howard Davis Jr.

Davis was an amazing amateur with blinding hand speed and pinpoint accuracy. Good footwork and defense too. He basically had the ideal style for amateur boxing and he had a brilliant amateur career, winning well over a hundred amateur fights and losing only a few.

Along the way he won just about everything you can win as an amateur, locally, nationally (AAU) and internationally, culminating in the 76' Olympics where he easily captured the Gold. In fact in the Olympic trials he beat both Aaron Pryor and Tommy Hearns, two future Hall of Famers, thats how good Howard Davis was as an amateur. At the time he was the #1 amateur in the world, ranked ahead of Sugar Ray Leonard, another future Hall of Famer and all-time great, but all of those guys (Leonard, Pryor, Hearns and several of the Olympians) went on to have significantly better pro careers because their styles were more conducive for a transition to the pros ... basically HDJ's problem was that he couldn't crack an egg.

HDJ was a very good pro and he came close to winning the lightweight title (was ahead on points when Edwin Rosario dropped him in the 12th and final round to win the decision), but thats as close as he ever got, he had a few chances at the title but never got over the hump, he was basically a glorified amateur, a pitter-patter artist who didn't even hit hard enough to stop people from coming forward and willingly taking four or five to land one. You can do that for three rounds in the amateurs and never lose, but against top pros, if you can't even hit hard enough to make them respect you, you'll never be a great pro no matter how decorated you are as an amateur, you're just a glorified amateur who lacks the necessary skills to dominate in the pros.

If you're thinking Mayweather doesn't hit hard either, trust me, FM is a knockout artist compared to HDJ, but I digress.

I think the same thing applies to QB's. You can dominate in college football without being a great passer, but its hard to have a great pro career or even a good pro career if you don't develop into a top passer. Ultimately all of the athleticism and tools in the world don't matter if you can't consistently drop back and deliver the football where it needs to be with accuracy and zip, even when you are being pressured and your time is limited, and most the time (unlike college) into small windows. So far we haven't seen that from Geno yet either, and if we don't see it this year he's done.

I don't know if Petty can be that kind of passer, but I see some indications that he might be, and so far (IMO) RG3 has not developed that necessary skill to excel in pro football. He and Geno are in the same boat, at the point where they have to show improvement in their passing skills, no excuses.

Point being, while I agree that RG3 was better at Baylor than Petty, its quite possible Petty can be the better pro.

 

[Superman55]

True, though I suspect the passing stats are relatively equal (guessing), but RG3 was certainly the more dynamic of the two and the more lethal dual threat, but that doesn't mean he'll be a better pro than Bryce Petty.

The college and pro games are so different and sometimes you can take two QB's with different skill sets, PLAYER A is better than PLAYER B in college, but PLAYER B becomes a better pro because his skill set is more conducive to pro football.

I'm not saying thats going to be the case here, but I can see where Petty's skill set might make him the better pro.

When I was young I was an avoid boxing fan and did a little amateur boxing myself. Nothing serious, but I was really into the sport and my pops won the Golden Gloves when he was younger, his trainer was Cus D'Amato who used to train at Gramercy Gym on the lower east-side before I was born.

Anyway, the 1976 Olympics Boxing Team might have been our best ever. We won an astounding 7 GOLD MEDALS and several future world champion professionals emerged from that team, including Sugar Ray Leonard.

You know who was named the outstanding boxer (an actual award they handed out) in the 76' Olympics?

It wasn't Sugar Ray or any of the future champs, it was a local kid from Long Island named Howard Davis Jr.

Davis was an amazing amateur with blinding hand speed and pinpoint accuracy. Good footwork and defense too. He basically had the ideal style for amateur boxing and he had a brilliant amateur career, winning well over a hundred amateur fights and losing only a few.

Along the way he won just about everything you can win as an amateur, locally, nationally (AAU) and internationally, culminating in the 76' Olympics where he easily captured the Gold. In fact in the Olympic trials he beat both Aaron Pryor and Tommy Hearns, two future Hall of Famers, thats how good Howard Davis was as an amateur. At the time he was the #1 amateur in the world, ranked ahead of Sugar Ray Leonard, another future Hall of Famer and all-time great, but all of those guys (Leonard, Pryor, Hearns and several of the Olympians) went on to have significantly better pro careers because their styles were more conducive for a transition to the pros ... basically HDJ's problem was that he couldn't crack an egg.

HDJ was a very good pro and he came close to winning the lightweight title (was ahead on points when Edwin Rosario dropped him in the 12th and final round to win the decision), but thats as close as he ever got, he had a few chances at the title but never got over the hump, he was basically a glorified amateur, a pitter-patter artist who didn't even hit hard enough to stop people from coming forward and willingly taking four or five to land one. You can do that for three rounds in the amateurs and never lose, but against top pros, if you can't even hit hard enough to make them respect you, you'll never be a great pro no matter how decorated you are as an amateur, you're just a glorified amateur who lacks the necessary skills to dominate in the pros.

If you're thinking Mayweather doesn't hit hard either, trust me, FM is a knockout artist compared to HDJ, but I digress.

I think the same thing applies to QB's. You can dominate in college football without being a great passer, but its hard to have a great pro career or even a good pro career if you don't develop into an top passer. Ultimately all of the athleticism and tools in the world don't matter if you can't consistently drop back and deliver the football where it needs to be with accuracy and zip, even when you are being pressured and your time is limited, and most the time (unlike college) into small windows. So far we haven't seen that from Geno yet either, and if we don't see it this year he's done.

I don't know if Petty can be that kind of passer, but I see some indications that he might be, and so far (IMO) RG3 has not developed that necessary skill to excel in pro football. He and Geno are in the same boat, at the point where they have to show improvement in their passing skills, no excuses.

Point being, while I agree that RG3 was better at Baylor than Petty, its quite possible Petty can be the better pro.

Really good post. My family is big into boxing too. My grandfather and great grandfather attended Ali beating Liston and Lewiston. I still watch a lot of fights. Great analogies.

My point wasn't if Petty has the tools, but that he hasn't been developed at all to play in the NFL.

It may be easy to lump RG3/Petty with Geno, but Petty was given predefined reads, no audits, no reading a defense, and never looked off a safety or even understood check down and 2nd and 3rd reads.

Geno went to the line of scrimmage with 2 plays every down at WVU, read the defense, and called the play at the line of scrimmage. He was even more ready than Petty (And still is by a mile).

However, with time can Petty be elite? Sure. But people need to understand what they see on YouTube is the same as watching him in shorts on a breach. He drops back and throws it to the guy whose turn it is to catch the ball as identified by his coach, he knows the reason for that decision not at all...could be random for app he knows, like picking which target to throw to in street football, except in street football you actually read the defense more than he did at Baylor AND you aren't forced/told who to thow the football to...I guess I just w I nder how much people really know what they are looking at when they watch his college highkights...

The best scouts in NFL history (Gil Brandt and Bill Polian) have publicly stated there is nothing you can see in a Baylor petty game that is any indication on how he will be as an NFL qb... but somehow half this board can...

That's my point

 

[Bronx]

You need to remember petty is told where to throw the ball on each pass you see. Remember, no reading or analysis is done on his part. When the play is called he already knows where to go. It's easier to look good when as you receive the snap you just stare down receiver 1 then throw. We need to see him in the preseason when he calls his first play in 5 years in a huddle, actually needs to read a d, and progress through reads the first time ever. His development will be fun to watch. But watching him in film is like watching him in shorts in practice, because nothing he did at Baylor other than throwing a football will be what he does for us. He will need to learn what being a QB means in a non-long hand off way, which is all a spread offense is. Their passing game is like a handoff, you just turn and toss it where you are told...

Hey, I'm not going to doubt anything you say, Sup, I'm sure you know more about Petty and Baylor than I ever will. But there are some throws in the video where his first read was covered and he has to turns his head for another option. You can see the hesitation. It was good that in almost all those instances, he didn't make a horrible decision

 

[Superman55]

Hey, I'm not going to doubt anything you say, Sup, I'm sure you know more about Petty and Baylor than I ever will. But there are some throws in the video where his first read was covered and he has to turns his head for another option. You can see the hesitation. It was good that in almost all those instances, he didn't make a horrible decision

I hope he sits a year and comes out and blows people away next preseason. From what everyone says, at Baylor and from the Jets so far, his arm strength concerns are not a concern and from the neck up he has "it." There were some combine reports about his arm strength, and the obvious spread offense concerns, which is why I think it will be so fun to watch his development. Can his brain and physical talent make up for the spread? We need a franchise QB, whether it is Geno, petty, or 2016 rookie player A...I'd like to see someone emerge too. But the preseason we need to look for little things - footwork, does he call out coverages (even simple things like him screaming Mike and Will, whichhelps the oline), does he progress through reads, how he looks under center, and how he looks off safeties. I hope he gets work in with Devin smith. I think next year is when we hope to read glowing reports all summer and him taking the reigns by his demeanor and play. But we need to be patient, IMO.

 

[Old#15]

Really good series of informative posts from GJH, 55 and Bronx. That's why I enjoy this board.

 

[Golden Rott]

Good catch on Vols and tigers.

I may not know much, but I know my SEC football.

Hey, I'm not going to doubt anything you say, Sup, I'm sure you know more about Petty and Baylor than I ever will. But there are some throws in the video where his first read was covered and he has to turns his head for another option. You can see the hesitation. It was good that in almost all those instances, he didn't make a horrible decision

Did not watch the video, but when I watched Petty play last year, I saw a guy with a strong arm, a quick release, good mechanics and a guy who was deadly accurate on that first read. When he had to move his head and begin to go to 2nd and 3rd reads is where he struggled and especially when he was on the run his accuracy suffered. Not surprising for a guy coming out of a spread offense who really has not been coached to make his own reads.

I also recognize that he suffered a back injury early in the season which may have impacted his accuracy on the move. When I have some time, I will watch the MSU tape, will be looking to see how he does when forced out of the pocket.

Bottom line for me is that he is a guy with all of the physical tools, who will need to learn the pro game. If he learns the pro game, he could turn into a really nice find for us. He seems like a good kid who is coachable and eager to learn -- says all the right things. I guess we will see. I can't wait to see what he does in his first preseason action in a few weeks.

 

[Superman55]

I may not know much, but I know my SEC football.



Did not watch the video, but when I watched Petty play last year, I saw a guy with a strong arm, a quick release, good mechanics and a guy who was deadly accurate on that first read. When he had to move his head and begin to go to 2nd and 3rd reads is where he struggled and especially when he was on the run his accuracy suffered. Not surprising for a guy coming out of a spread offense who really has not been coached to make his own reads.

I also recognize that he suffered a back injury early in the season which may have impacted his accuracy on the move. When I have some time, I will watch the MSU tape, will be looking to see how he does when forced out of the pocket.

Bottom line for me is that he is a guy with all of the physical tools, who will need to learn the pro game. If he learns the pro game, he could turn into a really nice find for us. He seems like a good kid who is coachable and eager to learn -- says all the right things. I guess we will see. I can't wait to see what he does in his first preseason action in a few weeks.

Im more excited to see what he does in the last game with a full half to work with (likely)...maybe even 3 quarters....

 

[Golden Rott]

Maccagnan video discussing the Bryce Petty pick:

http://www.newyorkjets.com/videos/v...al-Tools/52343ac6-c89b-4329-af98-d43b856a97ce

 

[Superman55]

Maccagnan video discussing the Bryce Petty pick:

http://www.newyorkjets.com/videos/v...al-Tools/52343ac6-c89b-4329-af98-d43b856a97ce

I took from this they wanted him, targeted him, and got him...does sound like they expect to let him sit and develop also; not that they said it, but he explained the system causes a steep learning curve, then went on to say like every QB goes through. He seemed positive from what they learned on his mental capacity from the senior bowl. Good post.

 

[flgreen]

Maccagnan video discussing the Bryce Petty pick:

http://www.newyorkjets.com/videos/v...al-Tools/52343ac6-c89b-4329-af98-d43b856a97ce

Was just going to put this video up.

Got to say every time I see this kid throw, can't help getting excited about that "quick release" of Petty's. Not so sure that is something you can teach. He needs some work on his foot work, but that can be taught.

Petty showed great toughness, and patience in college. He played through two cracked transverse processes in his back, still put up excellent numbers, and had the patience to sit behind both RG III and Nick Florence.

If he could sit behind Florence with out making a big stink and upsetting the team, (he admitted it bothered him) He shouldn't have a problem sitting back for awhile and learning with Fitz as his teacher for a year.

 

[sg3]

Gonna be fun watching Bryce compete with Fitzpatrick for the starting QB job of the Jets in the spring and summer of 2016.

 

[Bronx]

If Petty goes through growing pains and struggles badly for a year or so, the same Geno slayers will be calling for his head