FLORHAM PARK, N.J. - You won't find much support for embattled quarterback Geno Smith outside the friendly confines of the Jets' training facility, but there's at least one NFL expert who believes Smith is ready to have a big season that will go a long way toward casting aside doubts about his ability as a franchise-caliber quarterback.
"I see him winning the job and having a good year," former NFL quarterback Shaun King, now an NFL analyst for Yahoo Sports, said of Smith. "He's shown that he has the skill set to play at a high level, and now that the Jets have put some good players around him, I think that will help. If he was really bad and was surrounded by elite personnel, then fine. But name one significant skill player he had."
King isn't ignoring all the mistakes Smith made his first two seasons; there were a ton of miscues, including 34 interceptions and eight lost fumbles. But the former Buccaneers starter refuses to overlook the bright spots.
"If we're being honest with ourselves, Geno Smith's first two years have been extremely unfair as far as his evaluation is concerned," King said. "Tell me one mistake that [Miami's] Ryan Tannehill made his first two years. You can't, because he didn't grow up on national television. When Geno was a rookie quarterback and every time he made a mistake, it was [discussed] on national TV. Yet, if you can put together a significant highlight tape of playing excellent football, that tells you something.
"When he was bad, he was really bad," King said. "But when he was good, he was really good. Look at the last games of both seasons . The Atlanta game [as a rookie]. He played well against the Patriots. He showed enough as a young quarterback where if you could get better around him, he would benefit. But when you have the worst supporting cast in the entire league, it's tough to win."
King identifies with Smith's early career track, which is somewhat similar to his own with the Buccaneers. He took over late in the season as a rookie in 1999 and helped the Bucs reach the NFC Championship Game against the Rams. He started the entire 2000 season, and the Bucs went 10-6 to reach the playoffs again, losing to the Eagles in the wild-card round. The following season, the Bucs gave up on King and acquired Brad Johnson, who helped the team win the Super Bowl after the 2002 season.
"It's tough for a young quarterback in this league," King said. "When do you get to fail? When do you get to mess up for three or four games and learn from it? Andrew Luck [of the Colts] is a rare bird who hit the ground running as a rookie and played like a Pro Bowler. He's like American Pharoah. There are some good 3-year-old horses, but rarely is there an all-time great one like Luck. Most quarterbacks have to have time to fail, but they're not given the opportunity to fail."
Smith has the opportunity for a third straight year; Jets rookie coach Todd Bowles says it's his job to lose, and it would be an upset if Smith doesn't go into the season as the starter ahead of veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. And yet the doubts persist, even inside the locker room. Veteran guard Willie Colon compared the Jets' roster, which has been upgraded with the addition of several high-priced free agents and the trade for wide receiver Brandon Marshall, to a Porsche and said of Smith: "We've given him the keys. He can't crash it."
Colon and Smith smoothed things over, and Colon believes his comments were misinterpreted because he supports Smith.
How would King have reacted if he were in Smith's place?
"Publicly, I don't have a reaction," King said. "Privately, I go to Willie and I say, 'Listen, let's watch your last 32 games, where half those games, you play like a below-average guard. [Colon] has been just as inconsistent as Geno Smith. He hasn't played at a Pro Bowl level, but everybody's pointing at Geno and the offense."
Now that the Jets have built up the defense through free agency, traded for Marshall, and added depth in the draft, there is plenty around Smith to make it work. But Colon is right about the quarterback's role: He can't afford to crash the car. If he does, his time in New York will soon be up.
But King believes Smith will make it work. And if his assessment of the Jets' quarterback is as spot on as the ones about last year's top rookie passers, King's take on Smith might resonate.
To review: King thought Johnny Manziel was vastly overrated and would be abysmal in the NFL. Check. He thought Blake Bortles would be a developmental quarterback who'd need more time to blossom. Check. And he thought Teddy Bridgewater would be the most productive one of all. Check.
Tune in this fall to see if he's right about Geno.